Can you say RETROGRESSION???

[Stormsfury]

http://orbit-net.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/a ... loope.html

[mf_dolphin]

It's about time that thing got out of Florida! Walking in my yard is like walking on the worlds largest wet sponge! It's playing hell with my golf schedule as well!

[ColdFront77]

Looks like the convection that has fired up in the east-central Gulf of Mexico, along the trough is still move toward the east.

Wouldn't a trough in the central Gulf of Mexico at least slow down the disturbanace to the east of the Bahamas, if not nudge it more to the north?

I and I am sure many of you interested in the [tropical] meteorology like myself know that tropical systems move northward (in this hemisphere) when a boundary (such a front system) is to the disturbance's west.

[Stormsfury]

Notice the mean synoptic flow over the U.S. in the last 24 hours. Look at the ULL shown on water vapor retrograding rapidly SW towards TX ... also notice off the EC ... expect everything to continue shifting WESTWARD ...

IMO, a turn to the north seems very unlikely ...

SF

[ColdFront77]

I sure expect everything to move westward, but in reality it hasn't done so yet.

I didn't say "a turn to the north," I said "a nudge to the north."


The westerly flow in the Gulf of Mexico over Florida last week into the weekend is in the process of doing a 180º as the flow is transitioning to an easterly flow. I wouldn't discount a shift in direction, probably not a total opposite as what is happening now... although there is a cold front coming moving toward the nations midsection from the northwest. By the time the tropical disturbance makes it into the Gulf of Mexico this feature may have play a role with the movement of this developing low.