Ok, a lot of debate is erupting about relocation of the actual low-level center. It hasn't happened ... period. The LLC continues moving westward. It is not totally closed off, but if you notice visible satellite imagery from this loop
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
Take a look at the deep convection, and now look to the south, east, and south-southwest of all that deep convection ... SOUTHEAST low-level WINDS .... now look west of the deep convection .... EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS, there are no low-level clouds even moving towards the west-southwest until you get to a point south of 25ºN, and west of 73ºW (well away from the deep convection) ... furthermore, what everyone is mistaking for a LLC withing the convection is a weakening ML related low.
Now, here's the kicker, look at the rising cloud tops within the deep area of convection (roughly between 26º/27ºN spanning 65º-70ºW) - the HUGE outflow boundary (arc cloud) is bowing WNW (and convection bubbles in response to that)
The LLC is still very well defined around 23ºN, 72.5ºW ... until I see ENE or NE winds much higher and closer to the NW of the deep convection, LLC development cancel ...
SF
The same LLC is there ... please read ...
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Stormsfury
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Stormsfury
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ColdFront77
I agree SF, LLCC still moving west. The swirl to the NE has warming clouds tops. This probably won't get going until its in the GOM...if then. I'm not completely ruling out the other area developing, but its a long shot. This dueling thing is just putting off development. Eyes will go far east after this clears the deck!
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Stormsfury
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Steve H. wrote:I agree SF, LLCC still moving west. The swirl to the NE has warming clouds tops. This probably won't get going until its in the GOM...if then. I'm not completely ruling out the other area developing, but its a long shot. This dueling thing is just putting off development. Eyes will go far east after this clears the deck!
Right now, we can't rule nothing out ...
I can't recall ever getting a headache as bad as this from an INVEST ...*LOL* ... thankfully I have Tylenol handy ...
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cycloneye
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Ok Stormsfury I am going to say to you that go to gopbi and read what M Watkins has posted about the implications for the system and as he sees it now the MLC may drop down to the surface with time and it will be an interesting night.
IMO SF that MLC is now the dominant feature unless that LLC becomes stronger again but if it is the case that the system forms more north that will have implications on the iniciation more north from the models.And SF this season systems haved formed for the most part from MLC.
IMO SF that MLC is now the dominant feature unless that LLC becomes stronger again but if it is the case that the system forms more north that will have implications on the iniciation more north from the models.And SF this season systems haved formed for the most part from MLC.
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ColdFront77
I am sure many of you read my post in another thread, mentioning that not only will the placement for the model to initialize the center of this INVEST change, but the overall position of the center will also change the forecast model guidance tracks.
Last edited by ColdFront77 on Tue Aug 12, 2003 7:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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wxman57
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LLC
While I agree with you, SF, that there is most definitely a weak LLC way down south, it is nothing more than a tiny eddy at this point. No convection, in a high-wind shear environment. The MLC up north, however, is in a low shear environment with good outflow. The question is, will these upper-level conditions continue up north.
If you look at the 18Z GFS, then it initialized the upper high to near 27N/69W very well but it dissipates it in 24hours as the massive upper-level ridge builds along the east coast. So, will that area of convection to the north continue, or will convection begin to re-fire near the eddy crossing the FL straits?
I don't know the answer to those questions yet, but my eyes are certainly on the northern system now, as that is what may impact Florida in 24-30 hours.
If you look at the 18Z GFS, then it initialized the upper high to near 27N/69W very well but it dissipates it in 24hours as the massive upper-level ridge builds along the east coast. So, will that area of convection to the north continue, or will convection begin to re-fire near the eddy crossing the FL straits?
I don't know the answer to those questions yet, but my eyes are certainly on the northern system now, as that is what may impact Florida in 24-30 hours.
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Stormsfury
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