Eastern Caribbean Tropical Wave

[Stormavoider]

Pressure is getting low. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42059 There seems to be lots of convection in the area.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Nice cluster of storms, if somewhat disorganized, per satellite.

But one doesn't need a CIMSS shear map to see the shear blowing in from the direction of Jamaica right into this.

GFS, Euro, CMC and NoGaps are not enthusiastic about any possible TC development, GFS does seem to feed a bit of this wave into what appears to be an unusual out of season cool front that makes it into Florida, and maybe it'll enhance the rain action for Florida.

[cycloneye]

Come rain,get to Puerto Rico to dump plenty to fill the lake reservoirs,hopefully it occurs.

[stevetampa33614]

Strong convection, But no dice. just an Open elongated wave.

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
Huge bulks of convection are doting the area, i have numerous ligthnings during the night especially at 2 am this morning added to some rain. Thunder were rumbling sometimes too. Hope that this episode as erased a little bit the severe drought persisting on the islands of east carib....
000
AXNT20 KNHC 311043
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS
ALONG 19N58W 15N60W 9N62W IN NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
12N TO 18N BETWEEN 55W AND 70W.
Here is our wet guest

[Gustywind]

Weather may differ greatly between areas today, as effects of tilted tropical wave are mainly just south of St. Croix. However, the wave itself extends to 19N at 58W, so some showers likely beginning later today or tonight, into Friday, with NAM model showing most precip Friday night. Convection from this wave has really popped the last few hours, as evidenced by IR satellite view with funk-top (cloud height) enhancement. http://www.weathercarib.com/

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 311457
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1057 AM AST THU JUL 31 2008

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES HAS ENTERED THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE THIS MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS THE REST OF THE DAY CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE...SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND COASTAL
WATERS. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY MORNING...BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALONG COASTAL AREAS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

[Gustywind]

000
AGXX40 KNHC 311659
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2008

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLAND...AND WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

[Gustywind]

Note that we received a very modest but nice amount of rain yesterday morning 8 AM throught this morning 8 am. In some areas we experienced 27 milimeters or 24, 19 and 20, 15. So tkanks to this moderate twave to bring us some needed water . Hope that my friend from the north (PR) Cycloneye can have the same or much more, and afterwards Florida if the the wave can maintain some good fuel with its nice blobs of huge convection? Whereas given the latest sat pics, it seems on a decrease trend concerning the blob near Guadeloupe, but the other further west seems in better shape....
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
See you soon....

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 311722
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N60W 10N63W 3N65W
MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE LESSER ANTILLES HAD A 3 MB DROP OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS INDICATIVE OF A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE. PATCHES OF
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE MAINLY OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 57W-70W.

[cycloneye]

We got a downpour in San Juan as a band of rain and some thuderstorms moved thru.There is a second band that is entering Eastern Puerto Rico.

[Gustywind]

That's for you my friend!
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 311931
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
331 PM AST THU JUL 31 2008

.SYNOPSIS...AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGIONAL WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SQUALLS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER AFTERNOON FOR ALL PUERTO
RICO...USVI AND SURROUNDING WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AS BANDS OF
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED TO A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLAND TODAY. AN AREA OF CONVECTIVE WEATHER OCCURRED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS THAT GENERATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH TOPS OF
AROUND 55 KFT. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND AN URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWEST REGION OF PUERTO
RICO.

THE FIRST BAND OF SHOWER STARTED TO AFFECT THE ISLAND OF ST CROIX
AT MID MORNING WHERE THE RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES. THIS LINE CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AFFECTING
THE ISLAND OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. THE LINE ALSO AFFECTED THE
ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO FROM EAST TO WEST. A SECOND BAND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER TO OCCUR ON
FRIDAY BUT SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS THE BULK OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING. BASED THE FORECAST PACKAGE ON THE MODELS
AND CONTINUE THE ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. THE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY UNSTABLE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
MODELS DO NOT SHOW A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE ON MOISTURE UNTIL
SUNDAY.
Some active weather for the citerns so good news for you Cycloneye enjoy it without any restriction lol .

[cycloneye]

Heavy rain is falling as I type this and some thunder at the distance too.We needed the rain to aliviate some the drought situation of the lake reservoirs.I hope plenty of rain falls tonight and tommorow to cause the lakes to increase its levels of water.

[gatorcane]

The good news is that there is plenty of shear over this wave for now which will keep it from developing in the short-term.

[kpost]

Posted to wrong forum at first: (Thanks Gatorcane)

they were just talking on Central fl. news 13 tropical update of watching this for development in the next 24 hrs.

[gatorcane]

There is a ship report under the convection that is reporting a 25K (28.8 mph) sustained wind out of the East (90 degrees)

SHIP S 0000 17.00 -69.80 138 319 90 25.1 - 9.8 8.0 - - 29.90 +0.00 81.5 - - 12.4 7

Pressures are a bit low in the area. Ship reports are coming in between 29.87 and 29.90 inches but steady.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search. ... E&dist=250

[Ed Mahmoud]

CIMMS shear maps not updating, but water vapor imagery suggests strong shear aimed right at the wave.

[gatorcane]

CIMMS shear maps not updating, but water vapor imagery suggests strong shear aimed right at the wave.

You are correct. There is "king TUTT" WNW of the wave over the Southern Bahamas and Eastern Cuba. That is why the convection is flaring today. Its because the wave is interacting with this TUTT. Shear is high both TUTT and wave are moving generally W to WNW and the TUTT is not backing down anytime soon it appears. I don't expect development out of this wave either. It's likely to enhanced some rain chances over Southern Florida and Cuba over the weekend as it heads west.

[tailgater]

We got a downpour in San Juan as a band of rain and some thuderstorms moved thru.There is a second band that is entering Eastern Puerto Rico.

What going on down to your southwest?
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... A&loop=yes

[bvigal]

I've been thinking for 2 days there was another tropical wave out there, between this one and the one which spawned 98L. Guess it might be true! (That wave at 30W is certainly not going to be way over here in 24hrs.)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1134 PM AST THU JUL 31 2008

.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH TOPS IN EXCESS OF 50
THOUSAND FEET HAVE CONTINUED TO PLAY OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS...MOST PROMINENTLY OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF
PUERTO RICO AND NORTH OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS WELL AS IN THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
SPECKLE NWS WEATHER RADAR AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL.

INFRA RED SATELLITE IMAGERY...MODEL FORECASTS AND MIMIC TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT EACH PAINT A LITTLE DIFFERENT PICTURE
OF THE WEATHER IN PROGRESS IN THE AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE HEAVIEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO WITH
ONLY WEAK CONVECTION ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND LITTLE
EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. MODEL FORECASTS SHOW ARCS OF
MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...ONE HAVING JUST PASSED AND
ANOTHER TO CROSS THROUGH AT 12Z ON FRIDAY AND STILL ANOTHER BEGINNING
AROUND 21Z FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. THESE AREAS OF
MOISTURE ARE SEPARATED BY A DRYER BAND AT 850 MB. MIMIC IMAGERY IS
PERHAPS THE MOST TELLING OF ALL THOUGH...AS IT BRINGS IN A SOLID
GLOBULE OF TWO PLUS INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER FOLLOWED
IMMEDIATELY BY A V-SHAPED PATTERN WHOSE CREST IS TOUCHING 20 NORTH
BUT HAS NOT YET ARRIVED AT 54 WEST. THIS GLOBULE OF MOISTURE IS
LIKELY WHY THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS CONTINUING SO VIGOROUSLY
INTO THE NIGHT. THE V-SHAPED MOISTURE UP STREAM COINCIDES WITH THE
AXIS OF ANOTHER WAVE EMBEDDED IN CYCLONICALLY CURVED WINDS TO PASS AROUND
03Z SATURDAY. MOISTURE THEN LINGERS UNTIL AFTER 21Z SATURDAY
BEFORE DRYER AIR MOVES IN ON EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN
INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
FRIDAY EVENING ON THE EAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO. SHOWERS THEN
LINGER OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND DURING SOME OF THE DAY SATURDAY UNTIL
MOISTURE MOVES WESTWARD.

AVIATION UPDATE...VCTS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT TJSJ UNTIL 05Z. DEEP CONVECTION...WITH TOPS AROUND
50KFT ARE LOCATED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WELL
CLEAR OF ALL LOCAL TAF SITES. EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE VI AFFECTING
TJSJ...TIST...AND TISX. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THESE AIRPORTS.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/Forecast/index.php