Trough set up for 2008

[boca]

So far this year the east coast trough has found a home along the east coast around 75 and 80w. As long as the have this feature sit there I think all the cape verde storms will recurve like Bertha did.In 2004 and 2005 the trough set up around 90w allowing storms to hit Florida and the east coast.Unless the set up changes, which I personally doubt, I think I'm safe Until Oct when I have to worry about a Wilma type track if it were to happen. This is just my opinion on what I see so far this season.I hoping this pattern will hold into Sept.Also to note because of the east coast trough( the protector) the bermuda high been displaced east and we haven't had are normal easterly flow but S or SW flow for the last few weeks here in Florida.

[Weatherfreak14]

I might have to disagree with you, the latest GFS solutions show that the ridge could be weakening and the High is strengthing over the coming weeks. It seems to be in a cuycle type fashion. EXAMPLE look at 00Z model right now, it shows the remance of Ex98L movving right up the US East Coast if my eyes arent deciving me, and in longe range that high seems to be getting stronger... I think we will see a 1999 type set up in the next coming weeks going into the heat of this season.... Which i hate to think.....

[stevetampa33614]

Highly doubting this. If storms dont develop till about 60w the trough isnt going to pick them for a recurve.

[Frank2]

boca,

As you said, the EC trough is a feature has been consistent - as often said about drought conditions, they usually last from 3-5 years, which is amazing when you consider how long a long-term pattern can last, but, they do, so, it's not unusual to see a trough hold firm for many months, as it's done so far...

At this point, the subtropical ridge is very fractured, so, we'll see what happens:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

[KWT]

Indeed Frank and the Bermuda high has been weaker then average as well. However the thing is we had a weaker then average Bermuda high in 1989 and most of the systems recurved away however you only need one to sneak through when the high does strengthen even if it is only for a short while and we saw that with the beast that was Hugo in that year.

[Frank2]

KWT,

I agree - the same was true with Andrew in '92, so, we need to be on guard even if things seems otherwise...

[jinftl]

Are there any analog years that stand out which had similar ridge/trough set-ups to what we have seen so far in 2008?

[Frank2]

Well, 1981 was the one season that really stands out:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981_Atlan ... ane_season

the ridge was "permanently" broken down after Hurricane Emilie lingered north of Bermuda for about 10 days, and, never returned to it's early season position or strength...

Frank

[Derek Ortt]

Highly doubting this. If storms dont develop till about 60w the trough isnt going to pick them for a recurve.

they most certainly will recurve

This has been a deep layer trough. Even the weakest of waves has been recurving so far this season

[Steve]

Not so fast. That trough has not been consistent enough to declare everything recurves. Dolly didn't recurve so certainly the "weakest waves" haven't been recurving - including those coming a little farther north where you would figure they would. I'd suggest you guys watch the next wave traversing the Atlantic and see what it does. We are still 6+ weeks away from high tide of the hurricane season, and I haven't seen anything that progs anything automatic. We know that troughs have been coming down to the Gulf. And we know that highs at varying levels have been migrating back and forth. We can't say for sure what anything (much less everything) is going to do, because while not transient, there is hardly a static trough to rely on for recurves.

I'd assume, waves of cape verde origin or not, that if the US sees multiple landfalls this season, you guys will find something else to talk about.

Steve

[hurricanetrack]

Looks like all that talk of a trough and recurving hurricanes (or tropical storms/tropical waves) was off the mark a bit.

Fay= no recurve and lots of damage from inland flooding
Gustav= billions in damage for MS and LA
Hanna= no big deal, not a hurricane but also did NOT recurve
Ike= ask folks in Galveston and along the Bolivar how that East Coast trough really helped them out. Seems to me that I recall Ike coming ALL THE WAY ACROSS and missing every trough that tried to snag it. And it did so while riding NORTH of 20 degrees latitude well east of 60 west. Wow.

[Blown Away]

Looks like all that talk of a trough and recurving hurricanes (or tropical storms/tropical waves) was off the mark a bit.

Fay= no recurve and lots of damage from inland flooding
Gustav= billions in damage for MS and LA
Hanna= no big deal, not a hurricane but also did NOT recurve
Ike= ask folks in Galveston and along the Bolivar how that East Coast trough really helped them out. Seems to me that I recall Ike coming ALL THE WAY ACROSS and missing every trough that tried to snag it. And it did so while riding NORTH of 20 degrees latitude well east of 60 west. Wow.

IMO, what Ike did at that latitude was amazing.

[jinftl]

A trough with Ike could have turned the storm north earlier on and actually resulted in the florida landfall originally feared...timing and location in relation to troughs and ridges means alot.

[Sanibel]

2008 was a little like 2007's flat track into the Caribbean pattern but further north.

[Cyclenall]

Hanna= no big deal, not a hurricane but also did NOT recurve

Hanna was a big deal, it killed over 580 and was a hurricane.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I Guess 11 of the 16 this year "missed the Trough"...

[hurricanetrack]

I stand corrected about Hanna. I am usually very good about not ignoring outside of the U.S. hurricane interests. Excellent point, well taken.

[Rainband]

The DR , Hispanolia, Hati and Cuba got nailed this year