CSU, TSR, JB,NOAA all now over original estimates.

[OuterBanker]

Hope everyone is enjoying the lull (of course Tx would beg to differ). After reading each it seems that we have just begun the season and it will not be a good one. Let's face it we have had off the past two years. Although TSR doesn't really target an area it does read as though the east coast is a particular concern. JB has been concerned about a NC and north land fall prior to the season and still thinks that way. June to Aug CSU's analog years changed and their analogs also seem to raise the risk for the east coast. JB is so concerned he thinks the US will experience a track race starting mid Aug. The MJO will start moving back into the Atlantic starting next week, and we all know what happened last time, and we weren't in prime season then. I guess what I'm trying to say is hold on for a wild ride.

[MiamiensisWx]

Friendly correction:

It is a common misconception that the Colorado State University forecasts from Klotzbach et al utilize the analog seasons based on steering. That is actually not the case.

"We select prior hurricane seasons since 1900 which have similar atmospheric-oceanic conditions to those currently being experienced. We searched for years that had the closest optimal combination of near-neutral ENSO conditions, above-average tropical Atlantic and far North Atlantic sea surface temperatures and active seasons in the deep tropics in June-July."

http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2008/aug2008/aug2008.pdf

Steering is not mentioned or considered.

[HURRICANELONNY]

According to TSR. The 925mb trade winds are supposed to be weaker then previously thought. Will see how accurate they are this year.

[kpost]

According to TSR. The 925mb trade winds are supposed to be weaker then previously thought. Will see how accurate they are this year.

may i ask a newbie question, how would this effect things?

[HURRICANELONNY]

Less shear. So storms could spin up quicker. Other factors are also in play but the shear is a huge factor. He said the SST's are a small enhancing effect probably because it is somewhat above normal in most areas. But not like 2005 was in the MDR area.

[cycloneye]

NOAA joins the combo of private and goverment firms and agencys raising the numbers.

[Frank2]

Isn't that funny - they all mentioned this just when the season entered a lull...

Just a guess, but, I'll guess that the season will end sometime in September, partially due to the deep long-wave trough pattern that continues in the eastern US...

Here's the current weather for Mount Washington, NH, which should be around 60 for this time of year:

FOG/45/W23G29/VSB 1/16

as our local OCM mentioned last night - it's almost unheard of to be talking about a strong cold front in North Florida at this time of year...

Frank

[HURAKAN]

Every season has lulls, even 2005:

Code: Select all

10   Tropical Depression TEN    13-14 AUG     30    1008     -   
11   Tropical Storm JOSE    22-23 AUG    45    1001    -   

An entire week without cyclone activity in August!

[Frank2]

Right - but it's still interesting that the lull started just when they all increased their numbers...

[vacanechaser]

Right - but it's still interesting that the lull started just when they all increased their numbers...

you just dont stop do you??? seems like we hear this every year that the season will end in september because of this and that.. whatever... its just funny how you love to rile the folks up here....everyone here new that the lull was coming... we are in an unfavorable MJO pattern right now... but activity is picking up again the in the eastern pacific.. which means it is on its way into the atlantic...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[vacanechaser]

According to TSR. The 925mb trade winds are supposed to be weaker then previously thought. Will see how accurate they are this year.

may i ask a newbie question, how would this effect things?

weaker trades means less up welling off africa... that means that the winds blowing from east to west into the atlantic are weaker than normal... that means the waters can warm more closer to the coast and in the mdr (mean developmet region) .. warmer waters allows for more fuel for the storms.. plus it will also cause less shearing... the systems can vertically stack in all layers of the atmosphere...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Frank2]

you just dont stop do you???

Well, someone has to counter those who don't stop wishing for a string of Cat 5's to head this way...

P.S. Actually, though we did receive a lot of critcism at this time two years ago, some of us were actually saying the right thing when we thought the season would end early - despite the dire forecasts that insisted on a repeat of 2005...

Last year was a little easier, since many already suspected the season would be less than average...

P.P.S. Still, those deep troughs in the Eastern US do speak very loudly about an early Fall, if the current pattern remains...

[Honeyko]

P.P.S. Still, those deep troughs in the Eastern US do speak very loudly about an early Fall, if the current pattern remains...

Kinda helps when there's still ice in Hudson's Bay.

[hurricanetrack]

Frank is right- the famous (infamous at times) East Coast trough might save us all from a lot of hardship. Of course, if it is not there when needed, then problems could arise.

I like to look at it this way- let's get some hurricanes on the map first, then we can worry or not about East Coast troughs.

And, I sure hope no body is even secretly wishing for a string of cat-5s. I am all about hurricanes- always have been. But forget about a cat-5, I want no part of that! Charley was bad enough. And Katrina? I would hate to ever see a full-on cat-5 anywhere. Give me a good 120 mph hurricane where everyone is prepared and does as recommended by local officials. That would be fine with me- something not out of control like I have seen with my own eyes (Jesse and Mike too! and I am sure lots of others of ya)

[Emmett_Brown]

Jeff Masters has a great blog entry that discusses water temps this year, and their possible enhancing effect for this season:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1010&tstamp=200808

Sometime today, he is supposed to release another installment which will discuss sterring currents and SAL.

Overall, there is a unanimous chorus of opinion at the moment is that conditions favor an above normal number of hurricanes this year. I think the SAL discussion will be key. If SAL keep waves in check near Africa, then they may develop later, but closer to home, similar to recent active years. There is a large area of deep warm water this year in the ATL just to he east of the Bahamas that looks like it could support a monster or two.