was there a year when predictions were out of hand?

[Mecklenburg]

was there a year when a hurricane season was far more more over or under the predictions of Dr. Klotzbach in the CSU and the NOAA? like 5-10 storms under or over for example...

[wxmann_91]

yes..

2005 and 2006 they were way off. 2005 wasn't predictable so that was pardonable, but 2006 was just plain overhyped.

[Mecklenburg]

yes..

2005 and 2006 they were way off. 2005 wasn't predictable so that was pardonable, but 2006 was just plain overhyped.

well i guess it could happen this year also... now CSU predicts at least 17 storms... but the way it looks now and how the SAL is terrorizing in the far Atlantic, we could be short by about 5-7 storms... i don't even see this season going over 12 storms... betcha this SAL outbreak will last till september...

[SouthFloridawx]

Yeah... I have to go with 2006 also. Definitely over hyped.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If this season goe's above 15 named storms I will eat my socks. The MDR is dead as of this moment. Not saying that we won't have more cape verdes but I believe a weak El nino could develop and shorten it and make waves develop more over the western Half of the Ocean. Also, I expect that the overall shear won't be "favorable" for the number of distrabances needed to get to 17 named storms to form into cyclones.

[Mecklenburg]

If this season goe's above 15 named storms I will eat my socks. The MDR is dead as of this moment. Not saying that we won't have more cape verdes but I believe a weak El nino could develop and shorten it and make waves develop more over the western Half of the Ocean. Also, I expect that the overall shear won't be "favorable" for the number of distrabances needed to get to 17 named storms to form into cyclones.

i agree, but i don't eat socks

[hurricanetrack]

This is great. We must make sure this thread is saved and dug up again in late November. That's all I am going to say. We'll see- you all might be right on. Might not.

[RL3AO]

This is great. We must make sure this thread is saved and dug up again in late November. That's all I am going to say. We'll see- you all might be right on. Might not.

I added it to my favorites when I saw it.

[Category 5]

If this season goe's above 15 named storms I will eat my socks. The MDR is dead as of this moment. Not saying that we won't have more cape verdes but I believe a weak El nino could develop and shorten it and make waves develop more over the western Half of the Ocean. Also, I expect that the overall shear won't be "favorable" for the number of distrabances needed to get to 17 named storms to form into cyclones.

Ok then, if we get 16 or more I expect you to be in here with a youtube link.

[Squarethecircle]

As long as there is internet, seasons will be under-hyped or over-hyped. Especially because it's nearly [is] impossible to see into the future. That little technicality is usually the bit that gets the best of every single one of us.

[HurricaneJoe22]

Matt, make sure you eat the ones you wore to gym class that day.

[Honeyko]

SAL-this, SAL-that.....guys? It's August *7*, not the end of September.

The SAL is already moistening up fast, and in a few days will represent a big, fat patch of juicy air loaded with condensation-nuclei.

See the "Large wave at 20N/55W" thread for the inevitable result -- storms that can develop from just about anything, not only African waves.

[KWT]

Firstly for Matt, 2004 had a weak el nino signature, did it stop that season from being hyperactive, it didn't....in fact look up the update from earlier this year when Dr.Gray even stated that a weak El Nino can have very busy seasons when having followed on from la nina the previous year.

However I'm pretty certain we won't be in El Nino at least during the hurricane season season, we are still FAR closer to La nina then El Nino in the 3.4 zone.

As for the SAL, as others have said we are in early August!
For example 1998 only had one storm at this point in the season, we ended up with 13 more storms and several deadly major hurricanes.

Facts are we've had 5 storms already, to only get 12 storms would actually require a below average 2nd half of the season which lets be blunt, with still quite a lot of the SST's being above average or close to average, shear that is close to average and also a favorable MJO cycle to come yet I think you'll be in for a surprise.

SAL isn't the be all guys...2005 had loads of SAL but we wouldn't call that below normal would we!

finally its normal for breaks in the season, periods of a couple of weeks where you could have fairly little activity, the only season I can remember that didn't was 2005, that really was one after another.

[Mecklenburg]

Firstly for Matt, 2004 had a weak el nino signature, did it stop that season from being hyperactive, it didn't....in fact look up the update from earlier this year when Dr.Gray even stated that a weak El Nino can have very busy seasons when having followed on from la nina the previous year.

However I'm pretty certain we won't be in El Nino at least during the hurricane season season, we are still FAR closer to La nina then El Nino in the 3.4 zone.

As for the SAL, as others have said we are in early August!
For example 1998 only had one storm at this point in the season, we ended up with 13 more storms and several deadly major hurricanes.

Facts are we've had 5 storms already, to only get 12 storms would actually require a below average 2nd half of the season which lets be blunt, with still quite a lot of the SST's being above average or close to average, shear that is close to average and also a favorable MJO cycle to come yet I think you'll be in for a surprise.

SAL isn't the be all guys...2005 had loads of SAL but we wouldn't call that below normal would we!

finally its normal for breaks in the season, periods of a couple of weeks where you could have fairly little activity, the only season I can remember that didn't was 2005, that really was one after another.

2005 did had loads of SAL and it did put a halt to cape verde hurricanes... so i won't be expecting another more CV hurricane this year...

[Mecklenburg]

but i must admit that it only takes 1 monster storm for a season to be worth remembering...

[KWT]

Yeah but the thing is SAL is actually pretty normal, even in super active CV seasons there are usually a couple of huge SAL bursts though they tend to be decreasing from mid-August onwards.

[Mecklenburg]

was there a monster SAL during hurricane Bertha?

[Mecklenburg]

Firstly for Matt, 2004 had a weak el nino signature, did it stop that season from being hyperactive, it didn't....in fact look up the update from earlier this year when Dr.Gray even stated that a weak El Nino can have very busy seasons when having followed on from la nina the previous year.

However I'm pretty certain we won't be in El Nino at least during the hurricane season season, we are still FAR closer to La nina then El Nino in the 3.4 zone.

As for the SAL, as others have said we are in early August!
For example 1998 only had one storm at this point in the season, we ended up with 13 more storms and several deadly major hurricanes.

Facts are we've had 5 storms already, to only get 12 storms would actually require a below average 2nd half of the season which lets be blunt, with still quite a lot of the SST's being above average or close to average, shear that is close to average and also a favorable MJO cycle to come yet I think you'll be in for a surprise.

SAL isn't the be all guys...2005 had loads of SAL but we wouldn't call that below normal would we!

finally its normal for breaks in the season, periods of a couple of weeks where you could have fairly little activity, the only season I can remember that didn't was 2005, that really was one after another.

well, i don't know... since i've noticed that central pacific storms usually form during el niño years... and guess what... we have a central pacific storm now... KIKA... i'm afraid that this year might be a repeat of 1997 or 2006

[KWT]

Nope Bertha actually was very lucky in that it didn't really have any SAL to deal with, hence why it powered up so far east.

Anyway to ram home the point that we are very unlikely to get a season below 12 storms....here is a list of where every season that got 13 or more TS since 1950 and where they were at this stage...this is ranked in order of ACE from lowest to highest in the season overall:


1: 2007- 3/0/0
2: 1990- 4/2/0
3: 1971- 2/0/0
4: 1953- 1/0/0
5: 2001- 2/0/0
6: 2000- 1/1/0
7: 1969- 2/0/0
8: 1996- 3/2/1
9: 2003- 4/2/0
10: 1998- 1/0/0
11: 2004- 2/1/1
12: 1995- 4/2/0
13: 1950- 0/0/0
14: 2005- 8/3/2

2008 at the moment--- 5/2/1


So as you can see whilst its still early we are decently ahead of even some of the more hyperactive seasons, take 1950 for example, 2nd most active season in terms of ACE ever yet at this stage nothing at all!
1969 ended up with 18 TS and only had 2 named storms at this point. So as you can odds strongly favor above 13 NS given how many of those seasons are below this one at this same point. Only 2005 really stands out though...

EDIT---Offical 3.4 numbers were -0.4, 0.1C above La Nina values...neutral but on the cool side.

[Mecklenburg]

i did recall that there was a long lull between tropical storm harvey and hurricane irene in 2005 because of SAL