Will the east coast trough let up

[boca]

I don't want to say this is a winter pattern,but it is.Ususally the bermuda high in full force.Will the pattern change or will we be safe along the Atlantic coastline.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I think it is way too early to call anything yet. The mean jet seems to be running a little further South than usual, but we are still basically in Summer, the change in day length and sun angle are just now starting to kick in, and a mean trough staying in a similar position, or perhaps retrograding just a tad Westward as the Bermuda High builds, could let storms get closer to the coast. Then, if we get an early Autumn storm that really buckles the jet, I'm talking serious negative tilt action, it could take a storm between the Bahamas and North Carolina and aim it right at New York and New England.


Or, maybe not. I am just offering amateur speculation.

Water temp is 27ºC at the Hotel Buoy East of ACY. A storm heading about due North up the coast for Long Island wouldn't have that much cooler than optimum ocean to cross before slamming land.

Maybe

[hurricanetrack]

Troughs get too much credit for being the save-all for hurricane seasons. They can be good and bad and very bad. Remember 2004? It is all in the timing of such troughs and how far south they dig. We are still in early August and the whole "East Coast trough" idea is pre-mature in my opinion. Let's rehash this once the season is over, shall we? I mean, keep on discussing it now, far be it for me to say not to, but why? We might have 7-10 more hurricanes coming and the East Coast trough might not deflect them all away. In fact, people in New England will be screaming a different story if a trough pulls some monster up out of the Bahamas and up the East Coast. We shall see. All that is needed is about a 4 to 6 week period of what I call East Coast troughLE (lite edition) and it's light's out for a lot of people- assuming the hurricanes are there in the first place.

[Blown Away]

I really don't have scientific data to support my theory, I'm just using my yearly observations of the weather while growing up in SFL (35 years).
1. This has been unusual summer so far, here in Hobe Sound we have had very little sea breeze and a persistent SW flow. One of the effects from the SW flow is terrible fishing at the beach, it pushes the bait away from shore, that's what I've been told. Also, no surf at all, I know it's flat during the summer, but not like it has been this summer.
2. This week it seems the sea breeze kicked in a little, but that will end this weekend when the trough sets in and SW flow again.
3. Looking at the long term models >14 days out, it seems the Bermuda High is more established. I'll know because that sea breeze will keep the afternoon storms away from the coast.
4. I think July is the month when the Bermuda High is at is strongest, but even at it's strongest most storms that come from the east will curve away from SFL. See climatology maps below.
5. August and September is when SFL has to be on guard for storms from the East. The climatology maps below support that.
6. My unofficial prediction is the Bermuda High will strengthen over the next few weeks and will pulse back and forth towards the EC. Just like always if the timing is right and a storm gets stuck under the Bermuda High as it is pulsing towards the EC there will be trouble.
7. It seems the >300 hour GFS supports a system making it near 23N/70W before curving away from at least SFL, that tells me the Bermuda High is getting more established.
[img][/img]