Possible development SW of CV Islands (near 30W)

[MiamiensisWx]

My original unadultered ideas remain unaltered. Personally, although some people have pointed to contrary evidence, I believe the system immediately west of the African coast will develop. Currently, the wave axis has moved off the coast today, and low level 850 mb vorticity has been increasing in the vicinity of 12-14 N and 19-25 W. Satellite imagery indicates convection is increasing in this vicinity, while a broad mid level circulation is evident as well. Evidence suggests the formation of a weak surface low within the defined area (near 19-21 W) will occur over the next ~24-26 hours. SAL/capping is minimal, as I previously mentioned. Synoptic/thermodynamic data strongly supports tropical cyclogenesis originating from this area as well.

I can't see the "phantom TC" claims' basis, and I'm certainly not -removed- for development or against it.

The following post is NOT an official prognosis.

Convection is increasing between 19-21 W, as I originally anticipated.

Graphical summary:

http://img175.imageshack.us/img175/8678/africanwaveaug9081sp3.png

EUMETSAT data:

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/listImages.pl?m=prod,a=0,sa=9,pr=MPEF,f=1,c=MPE,se=4,n=6,d=1,v=400,pp=0

A (very) preliminary analog in regards to the track and initial heading may be Luis of 1995 if the system develops.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1995/LUIS/track.gif

Note: Analog is NOT based on intensity.

I decided to start a thread for this one...

[MiamiensisWx]

Note that convective outflow and the broad mid level circulation appears to be inducing mid/upper level shear over the convection further west near ~30 W. Since low level vorticity is greater in the vicinity of 19-23 W, it suggests that tropical cyclogenesis may occur further east than ~30 W. Personally, I'm quite adamant in regards to development from the system near 19-23 W, with a surface low developing in this vicinity within the next 24 hours.

Additional thunderstorms are developing:

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/listImages.pl?m=prod,a=0,sa=9,pr=MPEF,f=1,c=MPE,se=4,n=6,d=1,v=400,pp=0

[Praxus]

This is crazy. Look at that train...and even the convection near the coast just now!

[MiamiensisWx]

Note the convection along 20-23 W...

[Scorpion]

This is why the GFS is showing a giant soup of lows stacked behind eachother.

[Mecklenburg]

This is why the GFS is showing a giant soup of lows stacked behind eachother.

GFS is really performing great this year... if the consensus are correct then, we might see 2 storms next week

[KWT]

Yep there is some convectrion with it though the wave axis is a little behind the convection as you say. This has probably a decent shot at forming, maybe even slightly better then the one in ffront though I've got a sneaky feeling that both will try and do something.

[MiamiensisWx]

The well defined mid level circulation and some convective outflow is definitely shearing the convection in the vicinity of 30 W. The thunderstorms near 30 W have been aided by LL convergence.

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/listImages.pl?m=prod,a=1,sa=9,pr=MPEF,f=1,c=MPE,se=4,n=6,d=1,v=400,pp=0,t=200808100115#controls

Simultaneously, convection is still developing and increasing in terms of aereal coverage near 19-23 W. The supporting evidence for development from this area (as opposed to 30 W) is growing exponentially.

[abajan]

This is why the GFS is showing a giant soup of lows stacked behind eachother.

GFS is really performing great this year... if the consensus are correct then, we might see 2 storms next week

A tropical depression is definitely gonna pop out there soon (4 days tops). There are just too many suspicious areas for nothing to develop, IMO.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 101050
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
A LARGE CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFF THE
W AFRICAN COAST AND IS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 15W-21W.

[HURAKAN]

[MiamiensisWx]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH.

2. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
WHILE THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE.. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

Medium probabilities have been issued for this one.

[Meso]

That TWO is for the one at around 35W though."SouthWest of Cape Verdes"... this one is located to the South East

[MiamiensisWx]

It has moved west since yesterday... I'll change the thread title's longitude.

[Meso]

It's still a different one in the TWO though isn't it? if you look at the circled area in the TWO image that's at 30-35W.. Still 10 degrees further west than this wave.20-24W is still SE or S of Cape Verdes

[KWT]

This wave that has come off Africa needs to be very closely watched as well for development because SAL seems to be droppig now we have the ITCZ exploding into life and lots of T-waves coming off Africa as well.

Could well have 2 possible systems to watch by the start of next weekend...

[x-y-no]

This wave that has come off Africa needs to be very closely watched as well for development because SAL seems to be droppig now we have the ITCZ exploding into life and lots of T-waves coming off Africa as well.

Could well have 2 possible systems to watch by the start of next weekend...

2 is a fair bet. 3 is a possibility.

[Mecklenburg]

This wave that has come off Africa needs to be very closely watched as well for development because SAL seems to be droppig now we have the ITCZ exploding into life and lots of T-waves coming off Africa as well.

Could well have 2 possible systems to watch by the start of next weekend...

2 is a fair bet. 3 is a possibility.

i agree... one that would possible affect the caribbean (which was ignored by the GFS runs), one headed for the carolinas, and one from this (which has no possible track yet, whatsoever).

[Derek Ortt]

the TWO is NOT mentioning this system, Miami

[cycloneye]

Well,what is South of the Cape Verde islands looks impressive.May get a mention in the next TWO.