Southwest Caribbean action

[Honeyko]

This linear feature has developed to the east of a large cluster which moved off Panama earlier this evening (and is now decaying). While observing 96E recently, I noticed the very strong equatorial westerlies, and suspect they may be advancing over the isthmus into the Caribbean. (QuikSCAT, unfortunately, managed to miss the region with both ascending and descending passes.) If the current subsidence regime over the eastern Caribbean is balanced by more favorable than normal conditions to the west, this will need watching.

[KWT]

Its convectivly active I agree but then again theres nothing eveen slightlu nusual here there is quite often these large bursts down here and they do always need watching.

[Honeyko]

They don't usually get this big or this far northeast, however

This is the sort of event that spits out proto- Mitches and Wilmas as eddy-whorls north of Columbia. It's early for that, but then this is a weird year with amplified longwave patterns.

[alan1961]

If this mess is still hanging about when 92L enters any part of the caribbean IMO i can see it also messing up 92L, if, of course 92L manages any kind of storm.

[HURAKAN]

It was supposed to have dissipated by now but it's still there and a tropical wave is moving toward the area. It may get interesting after all.

[Comanche]

The birthplace for Carla.

[Sanibel]

What usually happens is an unexpected Caribbean system forms when everyone is watching a lame Atlantic. So far these Amazon ITCZ waves have all been EPAC entrained but this one is showing unusual persistence on the Atlantic side. Maybe the weak central Atlantic steering will pull an unexpected one north from the Caribbean.

Unlike the Atlantic waves this one has red IR depth. Nothing to suggest any formation yet.

[HURAKAN]

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[HURAKAN]

This is probably shear induced.

[abajan]

Honeyko, looks like we were thinking the same thing because I just started a similar thread. I'll better go and delete it before someone responds.

[Derek Ortt]

nothing to see

only clouds

and most certainly NOT another Carla

[Ed Mahmoud]

nothing to see

only clouds

and most certainly NOT another Carla

12Z NAM develops an EPac depression out of it.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Got some sweet looking upper divergence. Of course, 30 to 40 knots of shear are not its friend...

[KWT]

Yeah seems like the convection is being strongly enhanced by the shear that is present at the moment there.

[Honeyko]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

* There's an anticyclone aloft over it.
* Outflow boundaries are already refiring at noon.
* Southerly mid-level inflow.

[Honeyko]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

Winds have shifted to the south to the north of Panama (at 850mb, if not at the surface).

[marcus B]

The Weather Channel just said this could be our next depression. I think they may be jumping the gun on that.

[HURAKAN]

The Weather Channel just said this could be our next depression. I think they may be jumping the gun on that.

Are you sure they were talking about this area and not 92L or 93L? It doesn't make sense.

[marcus B]

The Weather Channel just said this could be our next depression. I think they may be jumping the gun on that.

Are you sure they were talking about this area and not 92L or 93L? It doesn't make sense.

Yes,I'm sure. She was pointing to the Caribbean area anyway. I don't watch them much anymore.

[HURAKAN]

The Weather Channel just said this could be our next depression. I think they may be jumping the gun on that.

Are you sure they were talking about this area and not 92L or 93L? It doesn't make sense.

Yes,I'm sure. She was pointing to the Caribbean area anyway. I don't watch them much anymore.

Wow. That shouldn't happen in a channel that is suppose to inform the people.