New area SE of Ike?

[Fego]

May be yes, may be not, but it took my attention 15N-30W. What do you think about this area southeast from TD9? Part of it or a new possible player?.

[Gustywind]

Good eyes Fego agree with you all the areas are suspicious we're defintely in September, bear watching it too. Let's see happens, and if the NHC put in a yellow circle on it. Whereas, do not forget Fego that another perturbed area is churning near Guadeloupe and we're in yellow alert, go to my topic to have more . All in all we should not let our guard down especially in this period, all these suspects areas must be monitored...

[AJC3]

Interesting at first glance, however QS shows nothing at all at the surface...and I seriously doubt you'd be able to get TC genesis to occur this close to TC's on both sides, both of which look to become large and strong. But hey, stranger things have happened, right?

[Weathermaster]

In the satellite photos you can clearly see rotation near 13n and 40w. Are conditions favorable for development of this area? Is between Ike and Josephine.

[Gustywind]

In the satellite photos you can clearly see rotation near 13n and 40w. Are conditions favorable for development of this area? Is between Ike and Josephine.

Not so bad ...shear seems low, this wave should support decent convection for maybe at least an invest if the convection can be sustained, who knows???
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
Low shear is doting the area ahead of the wave...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8split.jpg
SAL is pretty inexistant...or very weak
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

[Praxus]

Is this the new yellow zone?

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA
AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND ANY ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

[cycloneye]

657
ABNT20 KNHC 042342
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HANNA...LOCATED ABOUT 75 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MARSH HARBOR
IN THE BAHAMAS...ON HURRICANE IKE...LOCATED ABOUT 505 MILES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND ON TROPICAL
STORM JOSEPHINE...LOCATED ABOUT 590 MILES WEST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN
AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Driftin]

anybody have info on this wave? Its looking better this morning.

[Gustywind]

anybody have info on this wave? Its looking better this morning.

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
000
AXNT20 KNHC 051148
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC...
...THE ITCZ...
SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
TO THE SOUTH OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THAT IS BETWEEN TROPICAL
STORM JOSEPHINE AND HURRICANE IKE...FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 44W
AND 47W...SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO
13N BETWEEN 42W AND 60W.

Hope 'im not wrong, but with my untrained eyes, seems that this is the area of concerned... . Whereas there's another area of showers associated with a twave at 52w, as the NHC have cleary mentionned :
A ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE WAS RE-POSITIONED ON THE
05/0000 UTC SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS IN ORDER TO AGREE WITH THE
THEN-CURRENT QUIKSCAT DATA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN THE
ITCZ ARE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W.

[FireBird]

The 2pm update from NHC says that this wave was embedded within an active part of the ITCZ and has slowed some. That's a bit worrying because 94L (which developed into Gustav) had moved in a similar fashion. The good thing is there's no curvature noticed. Looks pretty much linear (ITCZ), but I'll be keeping my eye for the thunderstorm activity so I could plan my weekend accordingly. Have a good weekend folks!

[Gustywind]

The 2pm update from NHC says that this wave was embedded within an active part of the ITCZ and has slowed some. That's a bit worrying because 94L (which developed into Gustav) had moved in a similar fashion. The good thing is there's no curvature noticed. Looks pretty much linear (ITCZ), but I'll be keeping my eye for the thunderstorm activity so I could plan my weekend accordingly. Have a good weekend folks!

HI my friend absolutely you're right the 5PM pic of Meteo France is showing a very nice burst of convection, i will surely keep an eye on this the ITZC is pulling northward a bit with my untrained eyes. We should look carefully if something can be cooked in this area...
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

9 north/47 west appears to becoming better organized with its convection. Have to watch it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/avn-l.jpg

[FireBird]

So I'm getting ready for bed and a nice rain shower began with some good winds. I go outside to take a look and lo and behold! There is a north wind blowing! I think - no way! This should not be happening unless something is beginning to stir. So here I am at 12:45am because I must follow my instincts on this, and what do I see? This wave is looking a bit healthier! I'll be watching this again in the morning. Just hope my eager mind will allow me to get some sleep tonight....

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
So this morning, this wave is looking better and better since yesterday night, and given the shear tendency there's maybe in the immediate future a little opportunity to have much more today in terms of organization.
Moreover seems that a distinct bulk of huge convection is trying to separate from the ITCZ with my untraines eyes ...
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ISAT2.html
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8split.jpg

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 061051
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
651 AM AST SAT SEP 6 2008

AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEARING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY...INCREASING THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS AGAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEARING THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS...TO WORK NORTHWEST AND TOWARDS THE AREA...BRINGING
ANOTHER POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 061201
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
OF THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS IN BETWEEN
HURRICANE IKE AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOSEPHINE. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10 TO 12N
BETWEEN 50W AND 53W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 15N BETWEEN 40W
AND 60W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING TO THE SOUTH OF THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS IN BETWEEN HURRICANE IKE
AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOSEPHINE. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE THAT
THIS PRECIPITATION IS MORE RELATED TO THE TROUGH AND THE ITCZ
INSTEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE.

[Gustywind]

Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Posts: 1488
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE 000
AXNT20 KNHC 071148
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W SOUTH 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE IS CROSSING THE ISLAND OF BARBADOS...WHICH IS REPORTING
HEAVY TSTMS AND SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 KT FROM THE SE. A CLUSTER
OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THAT ISLAND.
SFC DATA AND AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS...BOTH SHOWED VERY WELL THE
WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. THE WAVE SHOWS UP ON THE
THE TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS WHERE A BULGE OF MOISTURE MAXIMUM IS
NOTED. 850 MB SATELLITE DERIVED VORTICITY ALSO SUPPORTS THE
POSITION OF THE WAVE AXIS.

Hey Abajan what the weather like in your area? Hope all is ok , if you have any info keep us informed...
Seems that us in Guadeloupe tonight, and especially tommorow should experience this strong wave, our Pro Met of Meteo-France are speaking about grey rainy dark weather added with thunderstorms and some gustywinds...
Moreover looks like things are heating up at Barbados from a correspondant Barbados speaking about the effects of depression? testifying how the winds blowing...
Updates from the Islands -
- - Barbados - -http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/barbados.shtml
- Conditions in the East
From: Lisa Greaves <lgwbajan at yahoo.com>
Date: Sun, 7 Sep 2008 04:07:55 -0700 (PDT)

Approximately 10 minutes ago, what sounded like metal flapping woke me from a deep slumber. I got up and looked outside to see the trees in my neck of the woods swaying violently. The wind is extremely high and I can hear the sound of thunder intermittently. I wondered if were experiencing a Tropical Depression as I knew that thunder showers were predicted to affect us yesterday. As I write, the rain is pouring, the wind continues and my insect screens are making a huge racket.

I pray for my fellow islanders in the Turks and Caicos as they experience Ike's wrath.
LGW
"Dance like no-one's watching"

[Gustywind]

Current Weather Conditions:
Grantley Adams, Barbados
(TBPB) 13-04N 059-29W 56M
Conditions at Sep 07, 2008 -
2008.09.07 1200 UTC
Wind from the S (180 degrees) at 25 MPH (22 KT)
Visibility 1 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Rain
Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 77 F (25 C)
Dew Point 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity 94%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.88 in. Hg (1012 hPa)
ob TBPB 071200Z 18022KT 2000 RA SCT010CB BKN080 25/24 Q1012

Latest 8 AM (12) Sep 07 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.88 (1012) S 25 rain
7 AM (11) Sep 07 75 (24) 73 (23) 29.85 (1011) S 29 light rain with thunder ( waouw)
6 AM (10) Sep 07 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.88 (1012) SSE 18 light rain with thunder
5 AM (9) Sep 07 75 (24) 75 (24) 29.88 (1012) ESE 29 light rain with thunder
4 AM (8) Sep 07 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.83 (1010) S 13 heavy rain with thunder
3 AM (7) Sep 07 77 (25) 77 (25) 29.83 (1010) E 6
2 AM (6) Sep 07 80 (27) 78 (26) 29.80 (1009) ESE 14
1 AM (5) Sep 07 80 (27) 78 (26) 29.83 (1010) E 15
Midnight (4) Sep 07 80 (27) 78 (26) 29.85 (1011) E 13 light rain showers

[Gustywind]

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TBPB.html

[OURAGAN]

the system at 12.5N/55W need to be monitoring, you can see cycloning turning.