Is The 2008 Hurricane Season Winding Down Quickly?

[Blown Away]

It's September 16 and we are just over the peak of the season and there is nothing out there that is even close to development and shear dominates the Atlantic basin. The models are not picking up potential development for at least another week. Maybe there will be an early October push, but it does not look good for Dr. Gray's 17 named systems forecast, we need 7 more from this point.

[DESTRUCTION5]

It's September 16 and we are just over the peak of the season and there is nothing out there that is even close to development and shear dominates the Atlantic basin. The models are not picking up potential development for at least another week. Maybe there will be an early October push, but it does not look good for Dr. Gray's 17 named systems forecast, we need 7 more from this point.

3 Letters=MJO..

[Category 5]

Yes, we haven't had a named storm in 2 days, season cancel.

[wxman57]

Actually, there is currently no active MJO in the East Pac or Atlantic Basin. The MJO has been in the Indian Ocean and West Pac for the past few weeks.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... update.ppt

[tgenius]

Doesn't climo dictate that we won't have many more if at all CV Storms and instead will worry about homebrew in the Caribbean?

[O Town]

Yes, we haven't had a named storm in 2 days, season cancel.

I was thinking the same thing when I read the thread title.

[Blown Away]

Yes, we haven't had a named storm in 2 days, season cancel.

I was thinking the same thing when I read the thread title.

Just making an observation. Gray's forecast says we sould see 7 more named systems, 4 of those canes and 2 of the 4 as major canes. Doesn't appear anything will be developing at least for a week or so, but maybe your seeing something that I don't see.

[somethingfunny]

Doesn't climo dictate that we won't have many more if at all CV Storms and instead will worry about homebrew in the Caribbean?

10 years ago today a storm named Georges was named just off the coast of Africa.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Actually, there is currently no active MJO in the East Pac or Atlantic Basin. The MJO has been in the Indian Ocean and West Pac for the past few weeks.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... update.ppt

Yes and is scheduled to return last week of Sept when I think we will see our next burst and maybe final...

[tgenius]

Doesn't climo dictate that we won't have many more if at all CV Storms and instead will worry about homebrew in the Caribbean?

10 years ago today a storm named Georges was named just off the coast of Africa.

I understand but the CV storms at this point going forward are more the exception then the rule (as I understand based solely on climo)

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'd agree with you, but last time I made an unofficial prediction based on what I thought was sound (if amateur), science, based on then current conditions and what models showed for the following 10 to 15 days, well, basically Appalachian State beat Michigan in the Big House, as it were.

So no bold predictions or agreements on bold predictions, at least until Winter Storm season starts in SE Texas.

I think the sharp peak around September 11 reflects about the time the Westerlies start returning to the development region off Africa. Waves still push off Africa, but have to come much further West before possibly favorable conditions for development.

Not completely unfavorable yet off Africa if far enough South, but you can see the Westerlies are coming...

[Blown Away]

Very, very low chance of a CV system affecting the CONUS at this point. If there is any more CONUS impacts it will more than likely originate from the NW Caribbean area. My eyes are swinging from the east to the south.

Ike's path, timing, everything will occur as often as Appalachian State beats Michigan in the Big House.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Hurricanes generally operate in a cyclical fashion. During 2005, an active
cycle occured in Late June-July (Category 4 Dennis, Category 5 Emily, Category
1 Cindy), then there was a brief quiet until Late August (second cycle) with Category 5 Katrina,
then 1 month later Category 5 Rita (third cycle),
then 1 month later Category 5 Wilma (fourth cycle),
between which it was *relatively* calm.

In 2008, Active in Early July, then some calm, then very active in August-
1 month later with Fay, Gustav, Hanna, Ike, and Josephine. Now expect about a
20 day quite period and then the cycle will occur again, with 4-7 storms occuring.
That recurrence of the cycle will likely be in late september through october.

See these are monthly cycles; 20 days super active, 20 days calm, 20 days
super active, 20 days calm, that's how these "Bursts" happen each season.

[jinftl]

With the climatological peak just a few days ago, there is no real reason to believe the season as a whole is shut down. We may see that when things start to perk up again, we are looking towards the more climatological hot spots for late september and october....with an emphasis on the western caribbean and gulf. for us here in south florida, this is particularly a vulnerable time of year for us that is coming up....strikes from the sw are our most common, not from the east.

[cycloneye]

Dont blame any resurgence of El Nino as it will not happen according to the latest Climate Prediction Center ENSO Update:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html

[gilbert88]

I think there's about 1% probability of Ike being the last named storm of the 2008 season... chances are by the end of September we'll be seeing at least Kyle and Lili...

[stormy1970al]

I think there's about 1% probability of Ike being the last named storm of the 2008 season... chances are by the end of September we'll be seeing at least Kyle and Lili...

i thought the L word was Laura. I am scared of the L word. My oldest daughter is Laura.

[RattleMan]

I think there's about 1% probability of Ike being the last named storm of the 2008 season... chances are by the end of September we'll be seeing at least Kyle and Lili...

i thought the L word was Laura. I am scared of the L word. My oldest daughter is Laura.

Laura is the L name. Lili was retired...

[gatorcane]

Well I do not think the season is winding down at all. I did expect about 10 days of nothing after Ike....then things should pick up by late September..sometime after Sept. 20....

and living in South Florida I really can't wait for October to pass, October can be busy for South Florida and the Caribbean. That is where the Western and Southern Caribbean can breed some significant systems.

[jinftl]

if in regards to landfall, gustav was a rough likeness to katrina and ike was a rough likeness to rita...i hope there is no rough likeness to wilma landfall ahead for florida!

Well I do not think the season is winding down at all. I did expect about 10 days of nothing after Ike....then things should pick up by late September..sometime after Sept. 20....

and living in South Florida I really can't wait for October to pass, October can be busy for South Florida and the Caribbean. That is where the Western and Southern Caribbean can breed some significant systems.