The next Cape Verde system

[x-y-no]

Exiting the Africa coast today. The 12Z GFS develops this over the next few days, moving it WNW. Has it at approx. 16N 39W by day 6. I'm a little mystified that it doesn't take the track more northerly, since it has a mid-level low situated over it for much of the track. Seems it's influenced almost entirely by the low-level steering.

[x-y-no]

Addendum - Day 7 it finally makes a more definitive NW move in response to a deep layer trough.

Things can change, but I'm fairly confident this one will be a fish.

[Weatherfreak000]

Early September sure...but late September? Not a shot...anything that develops here at this time of the year is a Bermuda threat at best unless it sneaks into the Caribbean.

After looking at satellite im certainly not too impressed with the system...not seeing where the models are liking it and the Eastern Atlantic has been exceptionally harsh to all convective activity that has emerged off the ITCZ. A simple infrared loop will show you all convective activity immediately dissipates.

I suppose given that...if there is anything at all left of this wave when it reaches 20N i'll hop aboard. A very hostile Atlantic after Hurricane Ike...as of today we have fallen 2 storms behind 2004...7 behind 2005.


Of course it's worth noting everything changes quickly in the tropics...we've been in a Negative MJO and certainly that has contributed.

[HURAKAN]

Looking really good.

[cycloneye]

Looks good but lets see when it gets fully out and see what kind of favorable conditions it will have.

[HURAKAN]

Shear should be low if it remains at a low latitude.

[captain east]

Ya, I noticed this one didn't instantly just go poof, though it could looking at what's been happening to all this tropical waves coming off the African coast recently. Anyways, the environment will come more favorable and this could do just about anything from a fish to a GOM monster to that Carolina hit JB has been stiring about.

[Gustywind]

Shear should be low if it remains at a low latitude.

Absolutely and a decreasing trend seems on tape, at near term maybe?...given the latest shear map:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[cycloneye]

Convection has waned,but if you look closely,there is a hint of a tiny circulation in the low to mid level clouds around 20w and below 10n.

[cycloneye]

Wow,that is very far sourh where ssd has the weak low.

20/1145 UTC 4.3N 20.8W TOO WEAK INVEST -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[HURAKAN]

[Gustywind]

Wow,that is very far sourh where ssd has the weak low.

20/1145 UTC 4.3N 20.8W TOO WEAK INVEST -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

damn i't's very very veryy far south! In this position hope that it will race quickly nw or at least wnw if this trend continues on a west drift....

[Weatherfreak000]

Wave is coming visible on the Central Atlantic floater...convection seems to be waning somewhat but the structure still decent.

[HURAKAN]

20/1745 UTC 3.9N 22.1W TOO WEAK INVEST

Further south!

[Weatherfreak000]

Yes but....as I said before the wave appears to be falling apart....not sure it will make it to 30W.


Need some refiring over for this one to stand a chance.

[Gustywind]

20/1745 UTC 3.9N 22.1W TOO WEAK INVEST

Further south!

It's a mistake, or a joke?
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim e/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html
At this latitude if this continues with convection or not, difficult to find the power of Coriolis, or it could be a future Ivan?

[HURAKAN]

Circulation is evident and convection appears to be on the increase. 94L may be close to making a reappearance!

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2008

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W S OF 10N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT
BASED ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT PASS OF QUIKSCAT. A
MID LEVEL LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 5N. A BROAD AREA OF
CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS COVERS THE AREA FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 14N BETWEEN 16W-27W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 21W-24W.

[HURAKAN]

20/2345 UTC 4.0N 23.4W TOO WEAK INVEST -- Atlantic Ocean

[Category 5]

Can whoever is posting images causing this box to pop up on my screen please not post them.

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