Number of named systems to form before season ends

[cycloneye]

I say three more.

The poll will close on September 30 at 7:39 PM EDT.

[Jinkers]

I say one, we'll have more of these 'no name' storms

[O Town]

I say three more.

How come there is not a vote for 3 then???

I say 2.

[cycloneye]

I say three more.

How come there is not a vote for 3 then???

I say 2.

I didnt vote right away,but eventually did.

[King-6]

4 more,and then environment for development will be hostile after that.

[TYNI]

I suspect 3 more.

[El Nino]

five

[stormchazer]

I also suspect three more systems after Kyle of course.

[StormTracker]

4 more excluding Kyle!

[Squarethecircle]

Four would make 15 total, which is not unreasonable.

[bvigal]

3 sounds right to me, too!

[bvigal]

Good grief, didn't count on an STS up in the north Atlantic. Probably will be 3 more, I should have voted 4!

[jinftl]

Not counting Laura, I vote for 4 more named storms this season...either sub-tropical or tropical...expect to see:

Marco
Nana
Omar
Paloma

My prediction is either 1 or 2 of those will become hurricanes, and 1 will be a major (Cat 3 or higher) at some point durings its lifespan.



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[Frank2]

...I'll take a guess and say zero - Fall is quickly making itself felt in the mid-latitudes, subtropics and tropics, with increased shear and frontal troughs, so, the season might be over once advisories for Laura end...

In fact, our first (weak) cold front is forecast to move through Florida (including South Florida) by the end of the week, so, a sure sign that Fall is here...

Many seasons have ended at the start of October (more have than have not), so, this would not be an usual occurrence...

Frank

[jinftl]

Do we live in the same south florida? the south florida i live in actually is hit by more 'canes in october than any other month....often guided directly towards us by the very troughs/fronts you mention below...to say the season is over because a weak front is going to drop the low to 74 deg and then move back north of us and stall out....I know you know better than to make that bold claim....i am all for 'hoping for the best', but let's not give the 'all clear' and make the claim it is all over for the season....esp. when several models are developing a system to our sw in a few days. People in florida can not let their guard down because the calendar says october....quite the opposite is true (King, Irene, Wilma...to name a few October storms we have had).

Not to mention, waters temps are plenty warm in the october usual hot spots for development....and this includes very high TCHP and deep, warm water....these factors alone are not enough for development, but they are certainly not deterrents if we get a low pressure developing over these heat sources.



from NWS Miami:
AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE THISTIME OF YEAR FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...THE TRUE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE VERY WEAK BY THE TIME IT FINALLY REACHES SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH
THE COLDEST PERIOD LIKELY TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...
AND DUE PRIMARILY TO DIABATIC COOLING EFFECTS WITH A DRIER AIRMASS
IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. UNFORTUNATELY...IT LOOKS AS IF A WET
PATTERN WILL RETURN TO SOUTH FLORIDA ONCE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND...AS
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATES THAT THE
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AND POTENTIALLY STALL
OVER THE AREA. WILL INCREASE POPS AND CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS REASONING...BUT WILL NOT MAKE
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING.

...I'll take a guess and say zero - Fall is quickly making itself felt in the mid-latitudes, subtropics and tropics, with increased shear and frontal troughs, so, the season might be over once advisories for Laura end...

In fact, our first (weak) cold front is forecast to move through Florida (including South Florida) by the end of the week, so, a sure sign that Fall is here...

Many seasons have ended at the start of October (more have than have not), so, this would not be an usual occurrence...

Frank

[Frank2]

THE COLDEST PERIOD LIKELY TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...
AND DUE PRIMARILY TO DIABATIC COOLING EFFECTS WITH A DRIER AIRMASS
IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. UNFORTUNATELY...IT LOOKS AS IF A WET
PATTERN WILL RETURN TO SOUTH FLORIDA ONCE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND...AS
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATES THAT THE
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AND POTENTIALLY STALL
OVER THE AREA. WILL INCREASE POPS AND CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS REASONING...BUT WILL NOT MAKE
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING.

I'd have to disagree - the above is common even during the winter months, so...

[jinftl]

This is not a polar airmass approaching...frontal passage or not...this will not 'shut the season down'..in fact, it is such frontal passages that climatologically can pull storms up from the western caribbean right towards florida..hence, the large number of october 'canes compared to other months in south florida.

I agree that many Octobers have not had storms in the Atlantic Basin. Even more Octobers have not had storms strike florida in particular. But the same can be said of August and September as well...more of those months have had no storm strikes than strikes. With that reasoning, we are pretty much 'in the clear' each season....as the odds of a storm in a given season are much less than 50/50. Not sure that is more meaningful in october....esp when climatology says the total opposite is true in florida with 'cane hits.

...I'll take a guess and say zero - Fall is quickly making itself felt in the mid-latitudes, subtropics and tropics, with increased shear and frontal troughs, so, the season might be over once advisories for Laura end...

In fact, our first (weak) cold front is forecast to move through Florida (including South Florida) by the end of the week, so, a sure sign that Fall is here...

Many seasons have ended at the start of October (more have than have not), so, this would not be an usual occurrence...

Frank

[Frank2]

We did have a frontal passage in the days before Wilma, so, you never know, but, per the old Floridian poem, "...October, all over!", so, it probably is, but, time will tell...

Frank

[gatorcane]

Frank2 I would be watching the Western Caribbean over the next several days. The front you mention is going to sit over Southern Florida and down through the Western Caribbean and slowly fizzle...and UKMET/NOGAPS suggest development there by Sat/Sun

This would be a classic October setup unfolding with a system forming in Herbert box #2. The season is far from over in my opinion.

[HURAKAN]

The danger to South Florida passes when the season is over.