Tropical Wave at 54w

[HUC]

This cluster is persistent for more than 18 hours now,apparently related to a tropical wave .Conditions are not so conducive, but we have to look this system,because it's far from the Itcz ,and we are in the pick of the season,after all...

[Gustywind]

Absolutely HUC, how are you? Absolutely we never knows, mother nature has always surprises in store.
Conditions are not so conducive, but no so very hostile
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
If this cloud cluster you're talking about stay on a straight west race it could have a little window of opportunity, but persistence is the key factor, let's see if this thing maintains some decent convection during the next couple of hours....
Hi Basse Terre! let's be-gin ( biguine) moving to the right moving to the left , lol , to watch this more carefully

[HUC]

Yeah Gusty;and we just had a violent shower with a lot of thunder...Since last friday,i got 165mm in my rain gauge (more than 6 inches!!) Of course not the same in P/Rico,and our friend Luis,with more than 30 inches!!!and people dead..
We are in the hurricane season,isn'it?

[Gustywind]

Yeah Gusty;and we just had a violent shower with a lot of thunder...Since last friday,i got 165mm in my rain gauge (more than 6 inches!!) Of course not the same in P/Rico,and our friend Luis,with more than 30 inches!!!and people dead..
We are in the hurricane season,isn'it?

Waouw Huc that's amazing, what a mess!!!! Yeah you're perfect and well informed, i've experienced amazing amounts too at Baie-Mahault and close to me at Duclos ( Petit-Bourg) i do not have the numbers in head right now but surely i'm close to you or maybe slightly higher, Duclos i tkink...is breaking records since last Wednesday. You're righ HUC we're always and we're in THIS season we should not let our guard down as many tkink that the season is winding down. Hey HUC remember 1998 with the letter G with Georges this was approxim at this period, and 1999? not better with the letter J in October Mister José and Lenny in november, for sure my friend all bets are opening but keep an eye on all theses waves!
Wait and see, but it's a bit amazing to see how the winds are hostile, looks like a bit to 2007 with all that shear in early September and persisting heu?!??? if my head does not deceiving me lol. Just a thought, nothing more, nothing is dead!
Let's see what happens....

[Gustywind]

Hey Huc should i add could i have a bath in your future swimming pool (6 inches )lol:cheesy: ?

[Gustywind]

This cluster is persistent for more than 18 hours now,apparently related to a tropical wave .Conditions are not so conducive, but we have to look this system,because it's far from the Itcz ,and we are in the pick of the season,after all...

Here is the guest/sheerif HUC
AXNT20 KNHC 241759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W S OF 17N MOVING
W NEAR 15 KT. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 37W AND THE WAVE AXIS. COMPUTER MODEL
GUIDANCE DEPICTS WEAK CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE WAVE AXIS.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 250005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2215 UTC.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/41W BETWEEN 03N AND
18N MOVING W NEAR 12 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE
FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN 35W AND 40W
FROM 13N TO 15N.

[carolina_73]

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 251040
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD
INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION E OF THE WAVE FROM
13N-16N BETWEEN 34W-40W.
It seems that convection is popping a bit ...very nicely, let's see what happens during the next 24H

[Frank2]

It appears that the CV season has come to an end:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/loop-avn.html

the easterlies have weakened west of 30W, so, anything moving off Africa does not have a chance to move any further west of that longitude at this time...

[HURAKAN]

25/1200 UTC 11.9N 37.9W TOO WEAK INVEST -- Atlantic Ocean

[Sanibel]

Weak spin and curvature. D-min right now.

Could spin up but looks like nothing to keep it from going out to sea.

[Gustywind]

25/1200 UTC 11.9N 37.9W TOO WEAK INVEST -- Atlantic Ocean

If the t numbers are improving and we have Invest N°...; we must lock this thread, but we're far away from that so let's what really happen with this twave...

[colbroe]

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
THIS TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN RELOCATED EASTWARD FROM ITS 25/0600
UTC POSITION ALONG 42W/43W S OF 17N. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 33W-40W...WHERE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IS MAXIMIZED. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
NOW DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IN THE
ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CLOUD ELEMENTS...AND COMPUTER MODEL
GUIDANCE CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE
NEW LOCATION FOR THIS WAVE. ADDITIONALLY...EXTRAPOLATION BASED
ON WAVE PASSAGE INFERRED FROM UPPER AIR TIME SECTION AT DAKAR
SENEGAL SUPPORTS THIS NEW LOCATION.

[Gustywind]

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
THIS TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN RELOCATED EASTWARD FROM ITS 25/0600
UTC POSITION ALONG 42W/43W S OF 17N. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 33W-40W...WHERE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IS MAXIMIZED. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
NOW DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IN THE
ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CLOUD ELEMENTS...AND COMPUTER MODEL
GUIDANCE CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE
NEW LOCATION FOR THIS WAVE. ADDITIONALLY...EXTRAPOLATION BASED
ON WAVE PASSAGE INFERRED FROM UPPER AIR TIME SECTION AT DAKAR
SENEGAL SUPPORTS THIS NEW LOCATION.

Don't forget to add the source, always to be informative as usual for everbody, because each forecast is special ( time ..)
Tkanks my friend
000
AXNT20 KNHC 251811 AAA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

[StormTracker]

Looked a lot better earlier!

[StormTracker]

Could this wave possibly be aided by some of Kyle's exhaust Entraining some moisture to fuel convection Are they too far apart

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

[Gustywind]

Could this wave possibly be aided by some of Kyle's exhaust Entraining some moisture to fuel convection Are they too far apart

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

Lightly, they are far apart with my untrained eyes...

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 260022
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.


A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IN
THE ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CLOUD ELEMENTS...AND COMPUTER MODEL
GUIDANCE CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE
NEW LOCATION FOR THIS WAVE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 35W-42W.

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... 4km_visir2

Looks very descent.