Area of disturbed wx in the EGOM

[AJC3]

I know the GOMEX home brew thread started mentioning this, but I think it deserves a separate thread.

Most of the model guidance has latched onto this area, eventually lifting some sort of low north and then northeast out of that area during the early to middle part of next week. From the looks of the current and forecast synoptic mid-upper level pattern down there, conditions might favor, if anything, more of a sloppy "right-sided" BE (baroclinically enhanced) type of system.

[ronjon]

Agreed AJC3 - upper level shear looks pretty high over the central and northern GOM. There may be a small window for development if the low pressure develops in the western caribbean where shear is lighter and forecast to lessen over the next three days. In any case, I think low pressure will develop since it'll be juiced baroclinically from the trough sharpening over the east coast in 3 days. Perhaps a hybrid (subtropical like) storm with heavy rain and wind on the east side?

[HURAKAN]

[jlauderdal]

gfs showed this yesterday and continues with the idea, gatorcane where are you, you might get some wind and rain

[gatorcane]

I'm here jlauderdale. Yeah its definitely something to watch. As we move into October, it can be busy for Florida especially Southern Florida as we move farther into October.

[HURAKAN]

The position and time of the year is very reminiscent of Keith, 2000. Of course, nothing like it is expected from this.

[jlauderdal]

I'm here jlauderdale. Yeah its definitely something to watch. As we move into October, it can be busy for Florida especially Southern Florida as we move farther into October.

its an interesting setup today with that front finally moving north, i biked in some very heavy rain this morning

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Heavy Thunderstorms in the Northwest Caribbean now.

[Frank2]

I just drove through a very heavy rain shower - also in Broward County...

Oh, well - it's only 10 a.m. and already it's been one of those days...

Frank

[jlauderdal]

I just drove through a very heavy rain shower - also in Broward County...

Oh, well - it's only 10 a.m. and already it's been one of those days...

Frank

yep its raining here again, the good stuff is staying off to our SE, my daughters soccer match is in an hour so that field is getting a good soaking

[Sanibel]

I didn't need the models you could see the signs in the clouds two days ago.

I can't find the center but this should be straight tropical. No way to tell what this land interaction will do. It tends to wipe out south moving systems some times. However the front should aid it.

[gatorcane]

all eyes will shift on the Western Caribbean over the next couple of days.

[boca]

I wonder if this would pull a wrong way Lenny senario?

[Sanibel]

It angers me that they don't put a floater on it when they need to.

[Frank2]

...it's not an invest yet, either - perhaps later today...

Frank

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This needs to be watched closely; looks like a low is trying
to form in the NW Caribbean based on loops

[gatorcane]

...it's not an invest yet, either - perhaps later today...

Frank

Perhaps later today. Interestingly enough, the 8:00AM TWO indicates that development is inhibited because the disturbed weather is over land. Well that was earlier...what are they going to say at 2:00PM EST now that it is over th Western Caribbean?

[tailgater]

. WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE NEAR A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER LAND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO HINDER ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...HEAVY
RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE AND GUATEMALA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

Could we see the rare development over land? The last one I remember was over the Yucatan.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Center relocation out over the western caribbean where the convection
is heavier?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html

[tailgater]

Center relocation out over the western caribbean where the convection
is heavier?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html

latest Obs show it still just north of Belize city( if there is a center).