Area Of Disturbed Weather In Western Caribbean.

#1 Postby **Blown Away** » Mon Sep 29, 2008 6:28 am

Is there something brewing in the general area of 15N/76W?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

#2 Postby **bvigal** » Mon Sep 29, 2008 8:06 am

It came through here Friday night and caused some of the worst lightning we've seen in a while, knocking out power repeatedly, phone service (underground lines) and cell service, up to 24hrs. It was definitely a low-level trough, possibly an un-charted wave. Precipitable water was very high. Surface reports from previous 24hrs showed wind shifts and pressure drop (minor) all over the Eastern Caribbean, sort of the same as a tropical wave....
I sure would watch this area as it progresses west.

DESTRUCTION5 · #3 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Mon Sep 29, 2008 8:28 am

JB says it will target FL this time next week so i guess we can kill this thread now and call it a day..LOL

#4 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 29, 2008 8:30 am

Jeff Masters mentioned yesterday that some models where pointing at development in the NW Caribbean this week. Lets see.

Thunder44 · #5 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Sep 29, 2008 8:36 am

HURAKAN wrote:Jeff Masters mentioned yesterday that some models where pointing at development in the NW Caribbean this week. Lets see.

I thought it was supposed to be from the system that was over the Yuctan and NW Carribean already.

Sanibel · #6 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Sep 29, 2008 9:07 am

Yucatan Low could use some energy. Maybe they'll merge.

ronjon · #7 Postby **ronjon** » Mon Sep 29, 2008 9:45 am

Thunder44 wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:Jeff Masters mentioned yesterday that some models where pointing at development in the NW Caribbean this week. Lets see.

I thought it was supposed to be from the system that was over the Yuctan and NW Carribean already.

This would be a separate system as the Yucatan system will be long gone by later this week and into the weekend. ECMWF has been forecasting this development for some time. Other models like CMC and NOGAPs also jumping on the development bandwagon. GFS shows a weak reflection. It is in a climatologically favored area - something to watch.

#8 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 29, 2008 10:04 am

Model Support exists:

#9 Postby **Blown Away** » Mon Sep 29, 2008 10:38 am

GFS seems to have a weak low moving towards Keys/FL in about 6 days, kind of a 1999 Irene type track.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

DESTRUCTION5 · #10 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Mon Sep 29, 2008 11:06 am

Can we merge these threads? Are they not one in the same?

#11 Postby **jlauderdal** » Mon Sep 29, 2008 11:14 am

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Can we merge these threads? Are they not one in the same?

the disturbed area east of Yucatan is different then the central Caribbean thread. The disturbed area was actually a thread merged with another thread.

ronjon · #12 Postby **ronjon** » Mon Sep 29, 2008 11:34 am

12Z NAM. yes I know it's the NAM.

#13 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Sep 29, 2008 11:50 am

The area over the Nw/Western Caribbean bears close watching as we head into the weekend. Many of the Global models indicate lowering pressures across the western Caribbean late this week (Nogaps,Gfs,CMC,Ukmet). The trend has been consistent and most medium range models now depict an organized area of low pressure across the NW Caribbean late this week. This also falls in line with climatology. Given the forecated synoptic pattern this weekend and early next week residents of the Caymans, Cuba, keys, and southern Florida will need to pay close attention to this possible developing situation. .

#14 Postby **bvigal** » Mon Sep 29, 2008 12:19 pm

Attention mods, or Blown_away:
Please change the title of this thread to reflect the initial topic, to prevent confusion:
"Disturbed weather approx 15N 76W on Monday 29 Sep"

If everyone will look at a map, this is in the Central Caribbean, and moving. IF it's a wave (which I believe), it will be in Western Caribbean in a couple of days, but it wasn't in the Yucatan on Saturday, etc.

#15 Postby **Blown Away** » Mon Sep 29, 2008 7:49 pm

Broad spin near 17N/78W, not much convection.

#16 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 29, 2008 9:22 pm

Accuweather jumps in the development bandwagon.

#17 Postby **Blown Away** » Tue Sep 30, 2008 7:30 am

This area is looking more suspicious today. IMO, the NHC needs to move their "Code Yellow" polygon over this area.

boca · #18 Postby **boca** » Tue Sep 30, 2008 8:11 am

I see alot of turning down there just SW of Jamaica. It looks like the area is moving WNW right now and with that trough over moving thru Florida right now.By the time later this week or by the weekend this area could pose a problem for Florida if it develops because the trough is expected to lift northward and whatever develops out of it could by a possible player.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

jinftl · #19 Postby **jinftl** » Tue Sep 30, 2008 8:37 am

Is there model consensus to suggest a potential system in that timeframe? How consistent have the models been run over run with their forecasts for a system taking shape?

HURAKAN wrote:

Accuweather jumps in the development bandwagon.

ronjon · #20 Postby **ronjon** » Tue Sep 30, 2008 8:44 am

For what it's worth, the NAM has been persistent in developing it - 06Z run.

Area Of Disturbed Weather In Western Caribbean.

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