"Hotspot" for development in October

[jinftl]

As we move into October, the area around the Yucatan and the Western Caribbean are the climatologic 'hotspots' for activity....and as we have seen through the years, some infamous storms have emerged from this area in October or later. Any area of disturbance bears watching in this area, and if the upper level winds become more conducive, storms can spin up.

A quick check shows the sea temps, depth of warm water, and tropical cyclone heat potential are still very high in this region...

[gatorcane]

Jinftl, no doubt that is where we will look in October.

Interesting to note that many of South Florida's hits are in October from storms hitting from the South.

Alot of South Floridians probably think Aug or September is busier but indeed that is not true.

So I usually can't wait until October is over here in South Florida, that is the month I fear the most.

[jinftl]

October is a big hurricane month for the state of Florida....busier than August in # storms to hit....definitely no one in the sunshine state should let their guard down yet...

Monthly Number of recorded storms effecting Florida
January 0
February 1
March 0
April 1
May 9
June 50
July 35
August 95
September 160
October 116
November 16
December 2

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Florida_hurricanes#Climatological_statistics

[CrazyC83]

That list is probably a low estimate, since there were likely more storms (especially in the distant past) that existed and were not properly classified (i.e. strong lows that were thought to be non-tropical that were really tropical storms or weak hurricanes).

[Sanibel]

The season is either closing down with these cold fronts and dry air or waiting for a return to favorable tropical conditions where a Caribbean storm spins up.

[jinftl]

Where is all this dry air being mentioned? Current dewpoints are still pretty high across the state of florida...and forecast lows are not going to drop below the low to mid 70s south of Lake O....and then warm from that by the end of the week. Not to mention, water temps are still in the low- to mid-80s.

as of 11pm, dewpoint readings:
Pensacola - 67 deg
Jacksonville - 70 deg
Orlando - 68 deg
St Pete - 71 deg
Vero Beach - 69 deg
Naples - 73 deg
Miami - 72 deg
Key West - 74 deg

The season is either closing down with these cold fronts and dry air or waiting for a return to favorable tropical conditions where a Caribbean storm spins up.

[Sanibel]

[jinftl]

Ah yes...the dry air is quite apparent across the gulf into the peninsula. Dewpoints are still in the 60s across north florida into the 70s across the southern half....not quite as refreshing an airmass as we will see with fronts in the weeks to come...but it is nice to see some blue sky this morning!

Per NWS Miami:

SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY...
INDICATING THAT A DRIER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER SOUTHWARD
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DEEP/TROPICAL MOISTURE SHUNTED SOUTH
OF THE MAINLAND AND PWATS FALLING BELOW 1.5 INCHES FOR AT LEAST
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA....

...BY TONIGHT...THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY FILTER ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES CONFINED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE MAINLAND...AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA WITH LOWER DEW POINTS AND LIGHT
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ONCE AGAIN FROM THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...AS THE POWERFUL UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD...ALLOWING THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC RIDGE TO BEGIN BUILDING BACK ACROSS THE REGION AND
SURFACE FRONT TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA.

IT APPEARS AS IF ANOTHER WET PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...
AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN...
AS A WEAK LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF NOW ADVERTISES A BREAK IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...AS A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...DOWNSTREAM
FROM ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/PLAINS.

[jinftl]

The second scenario....."or waiting for a return to favorable tropical conditions"... may be just what is in store....summer pattern to re-establish itself this weekend and persist through the extended forecast down here...


From NWS Miami...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
227 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2008

DISCUSSION... SUMMERTIME HIGH HUMIDITY AND WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RETURN
BEGINNING SATURDAY FOR THE METRO ATLANTIC COAST AREAS AND ALL
AREAS SUNDAY.

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK, WITH NEAR OR BELOW CLIMO POPS
AND SUMMERTIME TEMPS. WIND FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL BE EASTERLY.

The season is either closing down with these cold fronts and dry air or waiting for a return to favorable tropical conditions where a Caribbean storm spins up.

[MiamiensisWx]

October TC climatology lucidly demonstrates the fact that many regions can be affected, including the Antilles/Bahamas, eastern Canada, eastern GOM/Florida, Southeast (i.e. Hazel 1954, Great Gale of 1878, et al), and Central America/Mexico...

http://img116.imageshack.us/img116/6802/octobercaribbeanclimo1mg2.png

[jinftl]

Gee....the florida peninsula is totally covered by tracks from years of october storms....as they say, a picture is worth a thousand words...

October TC climatology lucidly demonstrates the fact that many regions can be affected, including the Antilles/Bahamas, eastern Canada, eastern GOM/Florida, Southeast (i.e. Hazel 1954, Great Gale of 1878, et al), and Central America/Mexico...

http://img116.imageshack.us/img116/6802/octobercaribbeanclimo1mg2.png