Disturbed Weather in Eastern Atlantic ( Is invest 97L)

[Sanibel]

Slight twist in westward moving ITCZ convection bank.

Don't know if October conditions support development in the Atlantic hurricane belt.

[Sanibel]

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

might get something try to spin up briefly
I see cyclonic turning in the eastern most convective complex.

[Sanibel]

Right. That's the 9-34 fix.

[Sanibel]

12N-28W in the same convection bank could be taking over as the stronger center.

[O Town]

That area also caught my eye this evening.

[cycloneye]

Sanibel,I edited the title to put a general reference of the area instead of a latitud and longitud position as those change constantly.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 061017
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON OCT 06 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SMALL
MID LEVEL ROTATION IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY CENTERED
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 26W-32W.

[Gustywind]

Oh,oh , interressing thing to keep in mind as Puerto Rico's discussion mentionned it
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 060948
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
548 AM AST MON OCT 6 2008

GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE AGGRESSIVE IN THE INTENSIFICATION OF A
TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS JUST EXITED AFRICA. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS AS OCEANIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC REMAIN
ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY ACROSS
THIS REGION.
Let's see what happens during the next couple of days ...

[bvigal]

Good Morning, Gusty!
I think the one in models that SJU mentions is further east. Take a look at the "long range models" thread, http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=100955&start=575. I just posted the model snapshots. It looks like a fish storm, but we'll be watching!

[Gustywind]

Good Morning, Gusty!
I think the one in models that SJU mentions is further east. Take a look at the "long range models" thread, http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=100955&start=575. I just posted the model snapshots. It looks like a fish storm, but we'll be watching!

Yeah, hi my Bvigal, how are you in good shape? I've noticied that, there's a thread for that, excuse me....
It should be a fish storm but as usual, we must see what happens... As usual i appreciate your smile from the British Virgin Islands, you have your kiss the Butterfly island too !

[cycloneye]

NHC starts to say something about this area.

ABNT20 KNHC 061153
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND SOME
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND OVER MAINLAND MEXICO
TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER COASTAL REGIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR THE THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. THESE CONDITIONS COULD SPREAD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC
ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER RHOME

[Gustywind]

NHC starts to say something about this area.

ABNT20 KNHC 061153
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND SOME
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND OVER MAINLAND MEXICO
TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER COASTAL REGIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR THE THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. THESE CONDITIONS COULD SPREAD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC
ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER RHOME

Absolutely Cycloneye, wait and see, but no more for the moment, shear is increadibly strong in vicinity so Olympics Shear Games maybe right now....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... m7shr.html

[Sanibel]

This thread has changed because the whole area has weakened in convection. The original swirl this thread was made about is now very small and weak and almost gone while the swirl behind it by 12N-31W is the dominant feature and weak as well. It is drifting N. If the whole ITCZ refires we might get something from it but right now it is weak. Not sure if this is d-min or dissipation.

[Sanibel]

Late season isn't holding the convection.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 080547
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED OCT 08 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W S OF 16N WITH A WEAK 1011 MB LOW
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N MOVING W 5-10 KT. SMALL LOW LEVEL SWIRL
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WITH CLUSTERS SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN
34W-38W.

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 080750
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
350 AM AST WED OCT 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 22.2N 58.7W EARLY
THIS MORNING (07Z) EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD LAYERED TROUGH THAT
COVERS THE W ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST NORTHEAST WHILE IT CONTINUES TO FILL WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE
EASTWARD AS IT BUILDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. HOWEVER...THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AFOREMENTIONED
ABOVE.

AT LOW LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. IN THE MEANTIME...THE LOCAL AREA LIES UNDER A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH REFLECTION FROM THE PREVIOUS MENTIONED MID TO UPPER LOW
LOCATED NE OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC UNITED STATES WILL
MOVE ONSHORE LATER TODAY. AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AND ENTERS THE W
ATLANTIC...THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE ACROSS OUR LOCAL
AREA...BRINGING BACK A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW ON THURSDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SINCE THE LOCAL AREA LIES IN BETWEEN TWO HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEMS...EXPECT ONCE AGAIN TODAY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS WEATHER PATTERN ALSO REPRESENT THAT TODAYS
WEATHER WILL BE THE RESULT OF SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND LOCAL
ISLAND EFFECTS OVER PUERTO RICO...BEING THE CENTRAL INTERIOR
SECTION OF THE ISLAND THE FOCUS POINT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON.

BOTH GFS AND NAM MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE CIMMS TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATERS PRODUCT SUGGEST A DEEP MOIST LAYER WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALL THIS
TRANSLATES TO AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF PUERTO RICO WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING ACROSS SMALL RIVER STREAMS AND URBAN AREAS
AMONGST OTHER LOCALIZED SPOTS. THE LACK OF WINDS OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PARTICULAR
REGION FOR A PROLONGED TIME PERIOD. WITH THIS IN MIND...MUDSLIDES
COULD ALSO OCCUR AS A RESULT OF THESE ANTICIPATED SHOWERS. THERE
IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT MOST OF THE ISLAND EXPERIENCE SOME SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ONCE AGAIN...THE CENTRAL INTERIOR SECTION OF
PUERTO RICO IS LIKELY TO BE THE MOST AFFECTED ONE DUE TO THE WEAK
WIND FLOW EXPECTED.


&&

.AVIATION...SCT MVFR RW/TRW CONTINUE THIS MORNING SPREAD ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS OF N PR EXTENDING E AND ENE ACROSS THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS TO NORTH OF TNCM...AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH 12Z.
ISOLD IFR CONDS IN TRW+ WITH TOPS AOA 40K FT...AND GUSTY WINDS.
ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE
ATMOSPHERE FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 27N 57W THEN SW AND INTO THE NE
CARIB AND IS YIELDING A VERY LIGHT LLVL FLOW BLO 5K FT AT 10 KT OR
LESS. NE LLVL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE DURING THE DAY AND ALLOW
ISOLD RW/TRW OFF OF N COAST OF PR AND USVI TO SHIFT SW INTO VNCTY
OF TJSJ...TIST...AND POSSIBLY TISX 12-16Z. AFTER 15Z LOOK FOR SEA
BREEZES ACROSS LOCAL ISLANDS TO GRADUALLY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCT MVFR RW/TRW ACROSS INTERIOR PR...SHIFTING SLOWLY SW TO VCNTY OF
TJPS...TJMZ AFTER 17Z...WITH ISOLD IFR CONDS IN TRW+...WHILE ALL
OTHER AREA SITES HAVE MODERATE CHANCES FOR MVFR TRW.


&&

.MARINE...WEAK WINDS AND FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 88 77 / 50 20 20 20
STT 86 78 87 78 / 40 40 40 40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

$$

70/17/

[wyq614]

08/0645 UTC 13.9N 33.0W T1.5/1.5 IN1 -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[Gustywind]

08/0645 UTC 13.9N 33.0W T1.5/1.5 IN1 -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Tkanks

[Gustywind]

AXNT20 KNHC 081041
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED OCT 08 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W S OF 15N WITH A WEAK 1011 MB LOW
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N MOVING W 5-10 KT. SMALL LOW LEVEL SWIRL
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WITH CLUSTERS SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 35W-37W.

Let's see what happens during the next 24H....