More W and N GOM Activity on the Horizon?!

[KatDaddy]

The chances are very very low for anymore tropical activity in the W and N GOM however Joe B thinks the low pressure off the SE US Coast will move across the N GOM with strong winds and rain and then become trouble in the W GOM next week. He also believe we will have a hurricane in the NW Caribbean.

Climo is so against another tropical threat W of 90W. Both Jerry and Juan were the exceptions. Interesting 89 and 85 are Joe's analog years to 2008.

In addition this mornings Hou-Gal AFD discusses both of these ideas.

DISCUSSION...
RIDGING FROM ARKANSAS TO IAH AND TROUGHINESS OVER EASTERN COLORADO
LEADING TO EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF AND VERY LIGHT WINDS IN
SETX. MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC HURRICANE NORBERT CAN BE SEEN
STREAMING STREAMING ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. PATCHY
FOG OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING SHOULD
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. SCATTERED CU OVER THE GULF WILL
REDEVELOP OVER LAND THIS MORNING WITH HEATING. HIGHS SHOULD REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH
YESTERDAYS LEVELS AND PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER. THE NEXT FEW
DAYS SHOULD BE REPEATS OF TODAY WITH INCREASING DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER DURING THE DAY AND THEN DISSIPATING DURING THE EVENING
(EXCEPT FOR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM NORBERT) MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON A STEADY INCREASE AS MODIFIED AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE
LOW NEAR SAVANAH GA THIS MORNING WILL BECOME STATIONARY THEN MOVE
BACK WEST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND SHOULD NEAR THE AREA
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA TO THEAREA. ON TUESDAY IT MOVER THE EXTREME WESTERN GULF INTO THE
COASTAL BEND REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS LEADS TO DRAMATIC
INCREASE IN MOISTURE LADEN AIR AND LIFT OVER SETX. EXPECTING RAIN
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP AND MAY PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY IF THIS PANS OUT. A COLD FRONT MAY BE MOVING INTO THE
AREA AS WELL WEDNESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON ALONG THE TAIL END OF
WEAK PACIFIC FRONT. THE TREND WITH THIS FRONT HAS BEEN ONE OF
MODELS SLOWING THE TIMING AND WEAKENING IT AS IT MOVES ACROSS
TEXAS. MOST LIKELY BY FRIDAY THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN THE WAKE OF A SECOND AND
STRONGER PUSH TO THE FRONT. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS A CAVEAT TO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS THAT
CONDITIONS THE NEXT 7 DAYS FOR SOMETHING TO DEVELOP IN THE
CARIBBEAN ARE LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE WITH AN EVENTUAL TRACK WEST
AND NORTHWEST.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The only October hurricane of the last six decades to hit Texas, barely a Cat 1 Jerry in 1989, made landfall on October 16th.


So, it is extremely, extremely likely, but not metaphysically certain, hurricane season is over in Texas.


But it probably is.

[fci]

Oh, it is always interesting when Ed proclaims "season over" for the GOM.

What was it back, in August before Ike that the last proclamation was made?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Oh, it is always interesting when Ed proclaims "season over" for the GOM.

What was it back, in August before Ike that the last proclamation was made?

Not over for Florida, or really any place South of La Pesca, Tamps. or East of Cameron, LA.

ETA: and the Texas season over thread was off by only one storm. A fluke that made its way across the Gulf despite omnipresent Westerlies since August.

[fci]

Oh, it is always interesting when Ed proclaims "season over" for the GOM.

What was it back, in August before Ike that the last proclamation was made?

Not over for Florida, or really any place South of La Pesca, Tamps. or East of Cameron, LA.

ETA: and the Texas season over thread was off by only one storm. A fluke that made its way across the Gulf despite omnipresent Westerlies since August.

Quite true.
There is a spike in potential for activity for Florida in October, for the next 2-3 weeks.
Being off by only one storm was quite a bit "off" considering what the storm turned out to be.
Kind of like saying my Dodgers were only 1 pitch off last night.......

[somethingfunny]

Dolly, Edouard, Gustav, Ike......

It's been a long season in Texas.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Dolly, Edouard, Gustav, Ike......

It's been a long season in Texas.

Not a hint of model support for anything remotely tropical coming near Texas...

[ROCK]

Dolly, Edouard, Gustav, Ike......

It's been a long season in Texas.

Not a hint of model support for anything remotely tropical coming near Texas...

Ed, its time for you to move on over to your beloved winter weather thread.....this is getting old. I am beggining to wonder if you enjoy the anttention or you are serious. Ike was a fluke in Sept? define fluke? better yet define westerlies? since you insisted that Texas would be spared in August.

You bring up climo when climo is being made now. Just b/c Jerry was in 89 doesnt mean diddly poo in 2008. A lot has changed since then. Globals I have looked at support the AFD. High pressure will be in control bringing back SE winds typical of a late summer pattern for Texas.


Kat please continue JB's updates. I do enjoy his insight even though he was wrong on the mega SE storm this year.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Dolly, Edouard, Gustav, Ike......

It's been a long season in Texas.

Not a hint of model support for anything remotely tropical coming near Texas...

Ed, its time for you to move on over to your beloved winter weather thread.....this is getting old. I am beggining to wonder if you enjoy the anttention or you are serious. Ike was a fluke in Sept? define fluke? better yet define westerlies? since you insisted that Texas would be spared in August.

You bring up climo when climo is being made now. Just b/c Jerry was in 89 doesnt mean diddly poo in 2008. A lot has changed since then. Globals I have looked at support the AFD. High pressure will be in control bringing back SE winds typical of a late summer pattern for Texas.


Kat please continue JB's updates. I do enjoy his insight even though he was wrong on the mega SE storm this year.

I'm all eyes. Show me a model with something resembling a TC in the NW GOMEX.

edited by vbhoutex

[KatDaddy]

We are all family here. No need to harass each other. Its great viewpoints from everyone on the board. It will always be current weather vs models vs the pattern. Sometimes we are correct and sometimes we are incorrect.
I will be the first to say I ate crow with IKE. I had a co-worker ask me if IKE was our problem. He was well E of the Bahamas at the time. I said no way but he might be a Florida problem. A discussion that I will never forget.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'm perfectly willing to at least entertain the idea of a TC in the Western GOMEX if anyone has a model.

I like JB. But he has nothing to support this idea. If JB has any model support at all, I listen. Edouard and the no-name 60 knot warm core Carolina low, JB wa son them days early, but he had some model support. I see a couple of models retrograde a piece of the 500 mb trough over the Southeast back Westard into the Gulf, none with a surface reflection, and all slowly filling the 500 mb vort as it heads towards Texas. Now, weather coming from the East in mid-October would be different, but there is nothing to suggest TC development.

[Ptarmigan]

I heard about this low pressure off the coast of Georgia moving towards Texas. I know there have been tropical systems that formed off the coast of the Carolinas and hit Texas.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/hurricanes/1930s_maps.htm
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/hurricanes/1940s_maps.htm

[Category 5]

The only October hurricane of the last six decades to hit Texas, barely a Cat 1 Jerry in 1989, made landfall on October 16th.


So, it is extremely, extremely likely, but not metaphysically certain, hurricane season is over in Texas.


But it probably is.

Now that Ed has said that, mandatory evacuations are being issued along the entire Texas coast.

[fci]

I'm perfectly willing to at least entertain the idea of a TC in the Western GOMEX if anyone has a model.

I like JB. But he has nothing to support this idea. If JB has any model support at all, I listen. Edouard and the no-name 60 knot warm core Carolina low, JB wa son them days early, but he had some model support. I see a couple of models retrograde a piece of the 500 mb trough over the Southeast back Westard into the Gulf, none with a surface reflection, and all slowly filling the 500 mb vort as it heads towards Texas. Now, weather coming from the East in mid-October would be different, but there is nothing to suggest TC development.

Ed:
I think you are missing the point here; at least I think you are.
The point, as I see it; is the rejection of "season over" proclamations.
You made one prior to Ike and it was horrifically wrong.
Maybe best to cite that climatologically it is unlikely for more storms to hit Texas rather than speaking of "season over".

That said, climatologically, the Western GOM season "should" be over now that we are in October... but one never knows; as you embarassingly found out with Ike.

Had to make one more comment and also that your posts are pretty good throughout the season but when you missed the Ike possibility it opened you up for "good natured" teasing.
That is what it is from me; I respect your posts (except the idolization of JB) and that's why I razz you. If I did not like you, I would simply ignore you! (like I do some others who likely also ignore me; which is fine!)

Enjoy winter and I hope you get the snow you crave each year!!!!

[MiamiensisWx]

It's unfathomable that some people (not Ed) adhere to the false belief that TC strikes in Texas are "climatologically" less frequent in mid/late September, since climatology (unlike October) does not support that hypothesis.

In addition, in regards to the "westerlies", an examination of the summer H5 pattern reveals that the pattern was far from "unfavorable" for a Texas hit during Ed's specified time frame.

Ed, your posts are generally decent, but I still disagree on the on the "westerlies"...

[MiamiensisWx]

We are all family here. No need to harass each other. Its great viewpoints from everyone on the board. It will always be current weather vs models vs the pattern. Sometimes we are correct and sometimes we are incorrect.
I will be the first to say I ate crow with IKE. I had a co-worker ask me if IKE was our problem. He was well E of the Bahamas at the time. I said no way but he might be a Florida problem. A discussion that I will never forget.

Unfortunately, the bolded portion is often utilized as a "cop out" by some contributors, since responsibility always comes with rights... it is easy to forget that serious students of meteorology realize the consequences of busted forecasts. I've seen many people consider the posts on this site as "reliable"; note that several people took the "we're safe" comments on Ike as astute analyses. This is an issue, since people should always refer to the official NWS/TPC forecasts, especially when they are basing paramount decisions (i.e. evacuation, security, etc.) on them. Some contributors were essentially in "denial", claiming that Ike could not impact them (in the Houston/Galveston area). I'm not interested in identification of these people, but the comments (based on little meteorology) were present. Of course, the majority of the contributors and populace prepared, but there are those indecisive people...

Frankly, the unadulterated "we're doomed" hype, -removed- (for or against landfalls), and the false "location X is safe" comments often rule the roost here. Fallacies and pseudo-scientific "climatology" (that is often inconsistent with the ACTUAL historical records) permeate the forums. It is very short-sighted to declare a season as "over" or "active" for a particular coastal vicinity prior to the season's conclusion. I'm not referring to specific threads; I'm broadly referring to the genera of these topics. These posts are often based on very meager meteorology or quotes from some people, as opposed to forecasts from private/public agencies, many of which state that "it only takes one impact" and that residents' preparedness is essential.

I wonder if someone (who was partially/moderately well informed) glanced at the aforementioned Ike commentary and partially utilized the views as an impetus to avoid evacuation from Galveston or the Bolivar Peninsula...

I believe Mark Sudduth's comments in another thread partially summarize my views.

I apologize for the OT tangent...

[M_0331]

OT: NWS out of CHS states the cut off low off the SC coast will be pushed by a high across southern Georgia & NW Fl into NW gulf by tomorrow night or Sunday. No further forecast past that since system will then be out of SC/GA area.

[KatDaddy]

Joe B summary paraphrase:

We will likely see lots of disturbed weather in the W GOM next week. Its very tough to get tropical development in the TX coastal areas in Oct but this is the kind of pattern that may allow development.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Joe B summary paraphrase:

We will likely see lots of disturbed weather in the W GOM next week. Its very tough to get tropical development in the TX coastal areas in Oct but this is the kind of pattern that may allow development.

Ain't seeing it. However, by Tuesday, the weak and weakening 500 mb disturbance has wandered to the West of SE Texas, putting us on the happier side for rainfall. Wednesday, we have an almost Summer like airmass, with 2" precipitable water:



Not in the Western GOMEX, but one model, the WRF, not well thought of by our pro-mets, does start lowering pressure/showing rains just North of the Yucatan, and in 3 1/2 days has an Eastern Caribbean cyclone and a Western Caribbean cyclone.

[Portastorm]

If you've read JB for any length of time, you would know that he is a man of his own ideas, spotting out pattern recognition, and then seeing if any of the modeling agrees with him. His own ideas come first, not seeing if the models develop anything and then he gets "excited."

As for any "disturbed weather" in the WGOM this week, send it all to Austin. We're desperate for rain!