Late Season Development W. Carib. (Is invest 91L)

[blp]

00Z GFS now on board with CMC with development of what seems like a new system in the W. Carib in 6 days. CMC seems to move further north much quicker.

GFS 126hr


174hr


CMC

[Blown Away]

The TAFB is now showing a new low in the West Caribbean in 48 hours moving N through 72 hours. This may be the low the GFS and CMC are latching on to. Let's see if the other models begin to pick up on this low.
48 hours:

72 hours:


The 06Z GFS seems to develop the TAFB's low and move it through the NW Caribbean and then through SFL.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Blown Away]

06Z GFS at 216 hours has a system over SFL:

[stpeteweathergal]

I'm hoping this doesn't come to fruition. I have a trip planned to the Everglades on the 24th/25th. I hope all of you can please keep this thread updated as I will be watching closely.

[HURAKAN]

[Sanibel]

Saw this by eye and came in to post on it. This is still a monsoon trough in the prime Caribbean:

[HURAKAN]

A lot of energy still available for tapping in the WCAR.

[gatorcane]

It doesn't look like fall will be starting early this year. I've been looking at model guidance and even out 384 hours, the GFS does not show any deep H5 troughs for the Eastern part of North America. The monsoon trough is now over the Southern Caribbean as Sanibel has pointed out.

Also plenty of ridging is expected to build in at the 500MB levels from the South-central Atlantic all the way across to the Western Caribbean at least for the next 10 days or so.

I'm thinking we are likely going to see something else spin up in the Caribbean before this month is over.

[Ed Mahmoud]

It doesn't look like fall will be starting early this year. I've been looking at model guidance and even out 384 hours, the GFS does not show any deep H5 troughs for the Eastern part of North America. The monsoon trough is now over the Southern Caribbean as Sanibel has pointed out.

Also plenty of ridging is expected to build in at the 500MB levels from the South-central Atlantic all the way across to the Western Caribbean at least for the next 10 days or so.

I'm thinking we are likely going to see something else spin up in the Caribbean before this month is over.

The 12Z and 18Z GFS have been showing monster power house troughs moving through the US, they just won't influence anything South of 20ºN. But anything that might form in the Western Caribbean that gets near 20ºN will come out to the Northeast, IMHO. Florida's season is still not over by a long shot.

[gatorcane]

Ed true, but these troughs are not digging that far south along the East Coast of the US yet for some reason. For example, the trough looks rather amplified in that pic above at 180 hours but at 240 hours look what happens. The ridge flattens these troughs out:



Many years, The Southern US can get some decent fronts starting to come through by the end of October but looks like this year is not one of those year.

[blp]

It seems like CMC dropped it. I changed the thread title and added NOGAPS.

NOGAPS is showing a 1008mb Low off Nicaragua. NOGAPS is picking up on a low that exits off S. America. Interesting the GFS also shows a low close to the NOGAPS but it prefers to develop the low closer to Belize. Let's see who is right.

NOGAPS 120hr


GFS 120hr

[HURAKAN]

Jeff Masters:

Elsewhere in the tropics
Several computer models are predicting the development of a tropical depression in the Atlantic's southwestern Caribbean, off the coast of Nicaragua or Honduras, about 5-8 days from now. Wind shear is expected to be low, 5-10 knots, across most of the Caribbean for the next ten days, and I would not be surprised to see a tropical storm develop in the Caribbean next week.

Heavy rains continue over the Central American nations of Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Guatemala, and El Salvador, in association with the remains of Tropical Depression Sixteen. The remains of TD 16 could move over the Eastern Pacific and regenerate into a tropical storm. Several of the computer models continue to indicate this possibility, and NHC is giving this system a medium (20-50% chance) of becoming a tropical depression in the Eastern Pacific by Sunday.

[Sanibel]

Caribbean monsoon trough slips more towards EPAC with GOM HIGH still pushing W.

See if MJO still has enough to deepen it in a few days.

[Evil Jeremy]

06z GFS Showing a storm impacting SFL in 168 hours. The new GFS is rolling in, I am looking to see if it shows the same or a simillar result.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[somethingfunny]

A lot of energy still available for tapping in the WCAR.

Where did that deep blue off Nicaragua come from?

[Blown Away]

12z GFS brings this low/tropical storm near SW Florida in 144 hours, then it meanders around, and finally crosses SFL in 204 hours.

[blp]

12Z Euro now showing development at 240hrs. GFS seems to be a little faster with development.

[jinftl]

That stretch of water between the Cayman Islands and the Yucatan can lead to some explosive development...certainly into November...if all other atmospheric conditions are just 'right' as well....

A lot of energy still available for tapping in the WCAR.

Where did that deep blue off Nicaragua come from?

[Blown Away]

If something does form it seems Florida will be in the target zone.

[HURAKAN]

Accuweather: