Update: Paloma remnants dissipated

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html
Moving WNW towards the Gulf of Mexico

The low level wind flow and approaching front will pull this into
the southern gulf of mexico, allowing it to enhance rain along the front.
I am posting this because Last Year Olga's remnants combined with a
front and brought hurricane force winds to the Tampa Bay Area. I am
not expected that as of yet, but with the horizontal temperature gradient
of 25 degrees about the front, rapid intense baroclinic enhancement is likely which
may lead to future deepening of a combined Paloma-remnant circulation
and squall line this weekend for the Eastern Gulf. GFS runs indicate numerous
isobars close to each other about the front, indicative of the potential
for damaging winds in the squalls of the frontal passage, and of a very deep
baroclinic winter storm over the Southeast US, that may briefly start off as a hybrid
subtropical or winter storm in the Gulf.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[gatorcane]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html
Moving WNW towards the Gulf of Mexico

The low level wind flow and approaching front will pull this into
the southern gulf of mexico, allowing it to enhance rain along the front.
I am posting this because Last Year Olga's remnants combined with a
front and brought hurricane force winds to the Tampa Bay Area. I am
not expected that as of yet, but with the horizontal temperature gradient
of 25 degrees about the front, rapid intense baroclinic enhancement is likely which
may lead to future deepening of a combined Paloma-remnant circulation
and squall line this weekend for the Eastern Gulf. GFS runs indicate numerous
isobars close to each other about the front, indicative of the potential
for damaging winds in the squalls of the frontal passage, and of a very deep
baroclinic winter storm over the Southeast US, that may briefly start off as a hybrid
subtropical or winter storm in the Gulf.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

Paloma's weak remnants will be absorbed into the short-wave. The bulk of the energy from this short-wave is going to pass well north of the Tampa Bay area bringing only about a 30-40% chance of POPS for the Greater Tampa Bay area and a wind shift to the NW with winds from 15-20mph behind the front. No model shows any type of subtropical or hybrid system in the Eastern Gulf so chances are slim to none it is going to happen.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I see what you are saying, so the circulation would be north of the area
before the rain/frontal arrival?

[gatorcane]

I see what you are saying, so the circulation would be north of the area
before the rain/frontal arrival?

If you are talking about Paloma's circulation, then it probably won't even exist by the time the front arrives. It's so weak and small, it hardly noticeable on the VIS loops. I agree with the Tampa AFD extended which doesn't even mention Paloma's remnants:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw/html/tbw/ge ... at=pretty;

.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH BOTH LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THE AFTERNOON
AND PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY PUSHING INTO THE NORTH...HAVE 40-30-20
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AND EXIT THE STATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. HAVE 30-40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY THEN LINGERING 20
PERCENT CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR DOWN
THE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A REINFORCING BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH
TUESDAY. TEMPS FRI NIGHT WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPS WILL THEN
FALL TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY...THEN FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL SAT NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE COOL AND DRY AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA AND
GETS REINFORCED.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'm not so sure what is left of Paloma will do much for the front.



Not very deep. Looking at the 850 and 700 mb theta-e anomations, while there is a small anomaly associated with ex-Paloma, it isn't that great, and the magnitude of the cold behind the front is what seems to be driving the strength of the front, if that makes any sense.

If you track GFS 850 mb vorticity, it loses ex-Paloma pretty quickly. Might add a little oomph, but in my totally amateur opinion, the magnitude of the front and the strength of the upper system will do most of the work.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Thanks for the analysis!

[Sanibel]

Very warm here today. Paloma's remnants should see some kind of enhancement in that area no matter.

Remnant weak disturbed band clouds noticeable here. No wind associated with them.

[HURAKAN]

I remember that Olga's remnants last year also traveled all-the-way from Hispaniola to Yucatan before turning NE and dissipating over SW Florida. I expect something similar but no development whatsoever.

[Sanibel]

Deadly dry for tropical systems:

[wyq614]

Yesterday it rained in Havana all night long and did not stop until early today. Does it have something to do with Palomita?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Yesterday it rained in Havana all night long and did not stop until early today. Does it have something to do with Palomita?

I'd guess yes.


How are the students doing with the virus that was going around?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I don't expect tropical development, but I can't rule out
some type of baroclinic cold front enhancement, if it can manage
to stay south of Cuba until the day the cold front pushes through
Florida. It may provide extra moisture here in Florida. My area is under
water restrictions by the county. Some rain would allow those
water restrictions to be lifted.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I put this in talking tropics because the circulation is tropical in nature, although
it is a remnant of a tropical system. Again I just expect baroclinic/cold
front enhancement of moisture, not tropical formation.

[wyq614]

Yesterday it rained in Havana all night long and did not stop until early today. Does it have something to do with Palomita?

I'd guess yes.


How are the students doing with the virus that was going around?

We have all recovered, thank you for asking.

Is there a cold front in the United States, and does it mean that in a week's time Havana will suffer from sharp temperature decrease and wind and rain?

[JonathanBelles]

Yesterday it rained in Havana all night long and did not stop until early today. Does it have something to do with Palomita?

I'd guess yes.


How are the students doing with the virus that was going around?

We have all recovered, thank you for asking.

Is there a cold front in the United States, and does it mean that in a week's time Havana will suffer from sharp temperature decrease and wind and rain?

There is a strong cold front coming through the state of Florida this weekend. What is left of it when it reaches Havana, I dont know.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Is there a cold front in the United States, and does it mean that in a week's time Havana will suffer from sharp temperature decrease and wind and rain?

The main energy with the front will remain north of Havana. Havana will not suffer from wind or rain, but might
get some breezy conditions and perhaps a slight drop in temperatures. But again, the worst instability
and severe weather should stay over the United States, mainly over the Southeast US, and into
the Florida Peninsula.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

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Ramifications:

Florida Forecast:
Strong Cold Front on the way- significant horizontal temperature
gradient- From 88 to 63-68 for highs, 25 degree temperature difference in
highs. This over a very short area- as indicated by numerous close isobars on
the GFS model. Deep horizontal temperature gradient across the front,
along with deep pressure gradient across the front (as indicated by
numerous close isobars per GFS) and the high pressure system to
the west of it, will combine with and be enhanced by the remnant
vorticity, moisture, and energy of Paloma to produce a potent winter
storm over the Eastern United States.

With those factors in mind, it is exceedingly likely that winds of 30 mph
will develop ahead of the front; a strong squall line with enhanced vorticity
from paloma's remnant voriticity being sucked in should precede the front
with severe thunderstorms capable of producing winds in excess of 60 mph.
Finally, after the frontal passage, the tremendous temperature/pressure gradient
as illustrated by the GFS should help fuel strong northerly winds of 35 mph behind
the front, leading to cold air advection across the SE US and Florida. Wind chill
temperatures in the 30s may dip into interior central Florida by Monday or Tuesday.
These winds should quickly relax to about 10-20 mph once the cold high builds
over the southeast, and tranquil conditions will prevail.

[JonathanBelles]

I'm not as bullish with the intensity of the wind in your forecast, but I do think it will be quite windy.

[HURAKAN]

[Sanibel]

Remnant circulation being raked by dry air and shear.


We finally got a climatological track with nothing to it.