The synoptic setup that would form this low is similar to what formed Paloma. We have a powerful cold front pushing deep into the Western Caribbean (the one responsible for the colder than normal temperatures across the Eastern CONUS and Florida). This front remains stationary in the SW Caribbean sea over very warm SSTs.
The difference this time is that the models are not as "bullish" and they seem to want to drive this tropical low into Central America or into the EPAC. The latest 12Z GFS run, however, is the first run I have seen where it tries to drift it off to the north instead. The reason for the north drift in the 12Z run is probably because it develops a powerful cut-off low over the SE CONUS that would create a weakness.
I currently give this low about a 10% chance of forming and if it forms, more than likely will drift around the SW Caribbean or push into Central America. Nonetheless, it is about the only area of interest out there at this time.
GFS at 120 hours:
GFS at 336 hours:
