JB says STS this week Northeast of Puerto Rico.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I haven't looked at satellites or modelling, but I may during my lunch break, to see what JB is talking about.



As an aside, no mention of Florida, but JB mentioned frost threats to California and Texas citrus.

[HURAKAN]

[vbhoutex]

Wow that doesn't last for long.

[tolakram]

From

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1167

...

Subtropical Storm Rene possible in the Atlantic next week
The trough of low pressure that brought snow to the deep south will track eastward over the Atlantic over the next few days, reaching the central Atlantic north of the Lesser Antilles Islands by Monday. On Monday or Tuesday, the computer models unanimously agree that the southern portion of the trough will pinch off and form a "cut-off low"--an extratropical storm that is cut off from the jet stream. This low is expected to track slowly westward to a point midway between Bermuda and Puerto Rico by late next week. The low will be over waters marginally warm enough--25°C--to support formation of a subtropical storm, and phase space diagrams from Florida State indicate that this storm will be warm-cored. Wind shear is forecast to be low enough to allow a subtropical or tropical storm to form, and I give a medium (20-50% chance) that we will see Subropical Storm Rene in the Atlantic next week.

Jeff Masters

[cycloneye]

The San Juan NWS is starting to discuss this.Will it become another Olga?

NOREASTER CURRENTLY MOVING UP THE NE COAST WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OUT
OVER THE WEST ATLC. AS THIS TROUGH RIDES OVER STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE CELL OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...DEEP LAYERED LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FRONT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LATEST GFS RUNS SHOW THIS LOW CUTTING OFF FROM MID LATITUDE FLOW
AND DRIFTING SW TOWARD MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT IF THIS
SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...COULD GET A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT PATTERN
CHANGE.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... &version=0

[CrazyC83]

And later and later into December too. If that happened, I believe it would be the 3rd latest in the year any storm has developed (behind Alice and Zeta).

[Ed Mahmoud]

0Z WRF loop.


What is that entering stage right?

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

UKMET dips it very far south (To my doorsteps).



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

NHC is already ahead of things as is talking about it in the discussions.

BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...COMPUTER MODELS ARE ANTICIPATING THE FORMATION OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC AS THE UPPER
LEVEL DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE ERN SEABOARD MOVES
EWD.

$$
HUFFMAN

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[DESTRUCTION5]

This is starting to look more probable than possible...

[cycloneye]

I know its the NAM,but is showing the low pressure.When you see the models lining up with consistancy,we better pay attention.



12z GFS shows a weak low dipping same as UKMET.

[CrazyC83]

Too bad there are no Tropical Weather Outlooks in the off-season (should they eliminate the off-season?), since they would be helpful...

[HURAKAN]

Maybe we need to include December in the hurricane season. Lately the activity is comparable to June.

[cycloneye]

NHC chims a little more in the 1 PM discussion.

A SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS PRESENT WITH AN AXIS
THAT EXTENDS FROM 19N45W TO 27N53W TO 32N53W TO N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM 20N50W TO 24N52W TO 27N54W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-28N BETWEEN
39W-51W...WHICH ARE BEING ENHANCED BY ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT DEEP ATMOSPHERIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEEP TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS AND W ATLC IS
FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH THIS SURFACE TROUGH...RESULTING IN
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC EARLY NEXT WEEK.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[MiamiensisWx]

Maybe we need to include December in the hurricane season. Lately the activity is comparable to June.

There is one important "point of contention" - we can't determine that December activity (including formation of subtropical cyclones) is definitely greater in recent years. Keep in mind that subtropical storms were not operationally classified until the 2000s. Additionally, ships may have experienced late season subtropical storms, but they weren't "counted" in the pre-satellite historical records. Many STCs may have not received classifications during the 1960s-1990s as well. Overall, I doubt the recent spate of late season subtropical systems differs from the actual historical totals...

[CrazyC83]

Maybe we need to include December in the hurricane season. Lately the activity is comparable to June.

There is one important "point of contention" - we can't determine that December activity (including formation of subtropical cyclones) is definitely greater in recent years. Keep in mind that subtropical storms were not operationally classified until the 2000s. Additionally, ships may have experienced late season subtropical storms, but they weren't "counted" in the pre-satellite historical records. Many STCs may have not received classifications during the 1960s-1990s as well. Overall, I doubt the recent spate of late season subtropical systems differs from the actual historical totals...

Except that of the 7 named storms that existed in the month of December since 1998 (Nicole, Olga-01, Odette, Peter, Epsilon, Zeta, Olga-07), ALL were tropical at one point.

May has had only 2 named storms exist in it since 1982 (in the last two years, although there had been 2 April storms in that 27-year timeframe as well).

[cycloneye]

The dipping continues from the models.This 18z GFS run has the weak low over me. Where I am going to hide? Seriously,very interesting what the models are showing about this low,although almost all the models dont have a strong system,we have to watch how all of this evolves to see if the low catches some favorable conditions or it stays non-tropical.



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This same trough/low brought strong winds of 40-45 mph
to my area along with squalls about 3 days ago...and is now
in the Atlantic. It was a well-defined winter storm at that
time. Wonder what it will do now.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Small snip from JB that probably doesn't violate my AccuWx PPV service agreement...

Meanwhile... someone let TPC know that may have overtime this week as a Lili-esque feature from 1984 develops and heads southwest. Now here is the question. Does that means even colder 3-5 weeks later ( In other words is the hemispheric pattern now similar to 1984 enough to warrant concern that the development of this system is because of the same kind of pattern that lead to the severe cold of mid and late Jan 85? Stack that in with the cold November in Florida and you have some interesting parallels, but we shall leave it at that..for now

[HURAKAN]