http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... ec2008.pdf
Another average season in terms of numbers (Since 1995) is what the Colorado State University team (Philip J. Klotzbach / Dr Gray) forecasts this early.I say this early because if you read page 13 of the report,they admit a high level of uncertainty making a forecast so early before June 1.That is why I prefer the April forecasts.
Dr.Philip J. Klotzbach / Dr.Gray Dec forecast for 09 season
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Re: Philip J. Klotzbach / Dr Gray first 2009 forecast=14/7/3
This prediction probably follows a seasonal variation logarithm. It will probably be adjusted in April if the Atlantic shows overt signs of a set pattern.
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cycloneye
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Re: Philip J. Klotzbach / Dr Gray first 2009 forecast=14/7/3
Great chart.Lets see what the April forecasts will be from them and as well the NOAA one in May.
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My prediction was 16/6/3 for the CSU forecast. That is -2, +1, and perfect for each of the categories respectively.
The more important information was on the % chances of land impact from 2009 tropical cyclones. It's above average again for the US and the east coast has still not been hit by a major hurricane like some of thought would have happened already after 2004.
The more important information was on the % chances of land impact from 2009 tropical cyclones. It's above average again for the US and the east coast has still not been hit by a major hurricane like some of thought would have happened already after 2004.
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HURAKAN
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As you can see from the graphics above, the equatorial waters of the Pacific are warmer now that they were last year around the same time. This could indicate that El Niño or El Niño-like condiciones could develop in the next few months and that will impact the next season. Too early to call but if I had to make a prediction at the moment I would forecast an almost average season compared to the average between 95-08.
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Re:
HURAKAN wrote:As you can see from the graphics above, the equatorial waters of the Pacific are warmer now that they were last year around the same time. This could indicate that El Niño or El Niño-like condiciones could develop in the next few months and that will impact the next season. Too early to call but if I had to make a prediction at the moment I would forecast an almost average season compared to the average between 95-08.
The report said that the Pacific waters are cooling again from early this summer.
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Derek Ortt
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