How Strong Would Ike Be In GOM Without Wind Sheer and Dry Ai

[Ptarmigan]

What if Hurricane Ike in the Gulf of Mexico had little wind sheer and no dry air to contend with? How strong would of Ike been under ideal conditions right before it made landfall?

[Ed Mahmoud]

I assume we are talking after the weakening of the inner core and the beginning of two wind maxes?


I have no idea, but they do post those nifty maximum potential hurricane intensity maps, based, I believe, mainly on oceanic heat content.

I wonder even about those, the Gulf has warmer water than the Caribbean at the peak of the season, but the depth of the 26ºC isotherm is much shallower, so heat content is much lower, but I always wondered if there was a certain speed a hurricane could move at in the Gulf to take maximum advantage of the warmer temps and have moved on before it upwelled too much cool water.

[boca]

I think Cuba had a lot to do with the disruption of the inner core of the storm. It was kind of like Lili I think in 2002 or 2003, but once it emerged from the Yucatan it was a shell of its former self.Not that Lili was weak but it could of been a lot worse.

[Derek Ortt]

not much... it was an issue of the disruption of the inner-core and a never ending EWRC

[Derek Ortt]

more like Isidore than Lili

[CrazyC83]

It had nothing to do with shear and dry air. The time over Cuba disrupted the storm so much, combined with the fact it had multiple eyewalls for such a long time and such an enormous RMW, it couldn't intensify a lot. If the inner eye had maintained itself right to landfall (it had survived the traverse of Cuba), then Ike probably would have made landfall at the same intensity but with a pressure around 935mb. That would have resulted in a larger storm surge and an even more widespread damage footprint.

[MGC]

So, you would rather a tighly packed hurricane like Andrew or a hurricane with a large wind field like Ike? I'd of rather had another Camille hit than Katrina. Usually though once the inner core is disrupted there is little chance of the hurricane regaining its former intensity. Gustav in 2008 is a good example.....MGC

[CrazyC83]

So, you would rather a tighly packed hurricane like Andrew or a hurricane with a large wind field like Ike? I'd of rather had another Camille hit than Katrina. Usually though once the inner core is disrupted there is little chance of the hurricane regaining its former intensity. Gustav in 2008 is a good example.....MGC

It takes a long time to re-organize after the inner core is disrupted (but it is not impossible - look at Hugo, for instance - regained almost all its lost intensity before hitting South Carolina). It took about 3 days for Ike to even really begin to get organized, and by then it was near landfall and too late. Any hurricane is bad - either you get catastrophic damage in a narrow corridor or widespread extensive damage.

[somethingfunny]

Dennis did hit Cat4 in the GOM after shredding itself over central Cuba, so don't think of an inner-core disruption as a reliable cyclone killer. Each one of them is unique.

[CrazyC83]

Dennis did hit Cat4 in the GOM after shredding itself over central Cuba, so don't think of an inner-core disruption as a reliable cyclone killer. Each one of them is unique.

It did help that Dennis wasn't a huge storm (at least in terms of its hurricane windfield). It took about 24 hours for Dennis to recover though.

Another storm that crossed Cuba and re-intensified, Charley, pretty much remained intact structurally.

[Derek Ortt]

Dennis did hit Cat4 in the GOM after shredding itself over central Cuba, so don't think of an inner-core disruption as a reliable cyclone killer. Each one of them is unique.

Dennis also did NOT lose its inner-core like Ike did. Remember, Ike spent about 2 days near or over Cuba

[jinftl]

Have there been any memorable storms that lost their inner core to the extent ike did, but then became a major again...either as a landfalling storm a 2nd time or on its way out to sea without landfalling as a resurrected major?

Dennis did hit Cat4 in the GOM after shredding itself over central Cuba, so don't think of an inner-core disruption as a reliable cyclone killer. Each one of them is unique.

Dennis also did NOT lose its inner-core like Ike did. Remember, Ike spent about 2 days near or over Cuba

[CrazyC83]

Have there been any memorable storms that lost their inner core to the extent ike did, but then became a major again...either as a landfalling storm a 2nd time or on its way out to sea without landfalling as a resurrected major?

Hugo I believe (struggled to come back after weakening to Cat 2 for 36+ hours leaving Puerto Rico, then restrengthened to Cat 4 in the last 12-18 hours before landfall in South Carolina).

[Derek Ortt]

Hugo NEVER lost its core. It simply encountered some high shear north of PR

[shah8]

The topic question is a lot more critical for Gustav rather than for Ike. Gustav would have been utterly terrifying without that shear that hit it right before the Cuban landfall.

What was probably more important for Ike was that the hot water pools were so far south. A big part of the whole "it took Ike about 3 days to pull itself together" was that for about a day it was over relatively cool waters. Without that speedbump, Ike would have been able to complete the ERC or just supercharged the double eyewall system.

[CrazyC83]

The topic question is a lot more critical for Gustav rather than for Ike. Gustav would have been utterly terrifying without that shear that hit it right before the Cuban landfall.

What was probably more important for Ike was that the hot water pools were so far south. A big part of the whole "it took Ike about 3 days to pull itself together" was that for about a day it was over relatively cool waters. Without that speedbump, Ike would have been able to complete the ERC or just supercharged the double eyewall system.

Gustav was well on its way to Category 5 if he had not made landfall and instead went into the Yucatan Channel. (Although he still would have weakened quite a bit before landfall).

[MGC]

Yep, Gustav was knocking on the door of Cat-5. I guess the NHC is disreguarding the 135KTS (155 mph) 1 min sustained wind reported from Paso Real de San Diego, Cuba as being "transient" and not a true measure of Gustav's wind. But, being only 5 KTS higher than the last recon report, it is not out of the question for Gustav to have strengthened a bit more before landfall....MGC

[HurricaneRobert]

They're not discounting it. The WMO is assembling a committee to investigate it.

[CrazyC83]

What was the elevation of that recording? If near sea level and valid, there are two options:

1) Consider it unrepresentative of the intensity (i.e. a microburst), but that is hard to do on a sustained wind. (That is my opinion on it)

2) Upgrade the storm to at least 140 kt, as that was on the west eyewall side. (Even though a pressure of around 938mb - officially 941 but surface obs suggest a bit lower - would not justify such).

[Derek Ortt]

the maximum sustained winds are for MARINE EXPOSURE. Terrain enhancements are not representative of the maximum sustained wind