Wave To Exit Africa

[gatorcane]

Most impressive area of convection since last season. This will poof as soon as it reaches the coast and be nothing but high clouds over the Atlantic in that area....but still you know this season is fast approaching.

Of course, Cape Verde Season starts later than the official start of the Atlantic season (roughly Aug. 15) but soon we will need to watch these waves as they push west because they can tend to develop farther upstream in more favorable conditions even in July or as early as late June (Re: Bertha, 08).

[HURAKAN]

This is a test run!!! The train appears ready.

[cycloneye]

I haved been looking at that complex of convection since last Saturday where it was in Central Africa and it has mantained for the most part the same intensity on the convection.

But when it splashes into the water it will do what gatorcane said.However it may be the early first salvo of the African wave train.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Houston's semi-famous Tropical Storm Allison developed from a wave that spent much of May crossing the Atlantic without developing, entered the Pacific, and then was drawn North into the Gulf.


About a month too soon for that to happen.

[gatorcane]

yeah I already checked the models and there is zero support for this wave, but looking at it reminds me that this season is nearing.

[cycloneye]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

[hurricanetrack]

So is it really a tropical wave technically speaking? Not questioning anyone's reason to post it here, just wondering if it really is a tried and true tropical wave? If so, wow. Not bad for April. Good to notice such things.

[cycloneye]

So is it really a tropical wave technically speaking? Not questioning anyone's reason to post it here, just wondering if it really is a tried and true tropical wave? If so, wow. Not bad for April. Good to notice such things.

NHC has not mentioned anything about this yet,but as the complex exits Africa something will be said at the TWD.

Another view,this pic from LSU.

[gatorcane]

Here is the Unified Analysis showing a Low about ready to emerge from Africa but the ITCZ is way south still so should see a general WSW movement then dissipation.

But will be interesting to see if it becomes a wave in the MDR (mean development region).

Looks like there is another Low behind it in Central Africa also.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Very far south as you'd expect for the time of year so this won't develop but as others said, its the first salvo from Africa, many more are to come when things become more favorable...

[Gustywind]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
AXNT20 KNHC 141101
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM 4N7W AT THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA...TO 2N10W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 22W...TO 1S30W 2S40W AND GOING
INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S45W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 7W AND 11W.
THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -80C TO -88C AND THE CLOUD
TOPS ARE REACHING AT LEAST 50000 FEET. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 15W AND
26W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO
THE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 25W AND 54W. SOME OF THE SHOWERS ARE IN
THE COASTAL WATERS OF BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA.

[cycloneye]

So is it really a tropical wave technically speaking? Not questioning anyone's reason to post it here, just wondering if it really is a tried and true tropical wave? If so, wow. Not bad for April. Good to notice such things.

Mark,at the 2 PM TWD,TPC introduced a Surface Trough with this.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N8W 4N12W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR ALONG 20W TO 1S30W INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S44W.
A TROPICAL WAVE-LIKE FEATURE...ANALYZED AS A SFC TROUGH ALONG
13W S OF 7N...IS WITHIN THE ITCZ. A LARGE CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SFC TROUGH COVERING
THE AREA FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 10W-15W. THE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM SHOWS
THE WESTWARD PROPAGATION OF THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WHILE THE
SSMI-DERIVED TPW PRODUCT INDICATES A BULGE OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 7W-12W...AND FROM
0N-3N BETWEEN 14W-20W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO FOUND WITHIN
100-130 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 24W-29W

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=
[/b]

[tolakram]

That's almost as good as eye-like feature.

[cycloneye]

When this feature moved over Cameroon in WestCentral Africa on the 13th,the lowest pressure was at 1006 mbs.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/FKKR.html

Its already starting to weaken.

[cycloneye]

I dont remember a very long paragrafh like this one made only for the ITCZ.The only word I have for it is WOW!

000
AXNT20 KNHC 151045
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED APR 15 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM 5N8W AT THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR ALONG 18W TO 3S30W.....AND GOING INTO NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED ALONG 13W AT
15/0000 UTC. I STUDIED ALL THE AVAILABLE METEOSAT-9 VISIBLE
SATELLITE FROM 14/0930 UTC UNTIL 14/1645 UTC AND I SAW ONLY
A SMALL AMOUNT OF CYCLONIC TURNING AT AN UNKNOWN LEVEL IN THE
ATMOSPHERE NEAR 2N17W AT THE END OF THAT CYCLE OF IMAGES.
I SAW A SOLID FIELD OF LOW CLOUDS IN THAT CYCLE OF VISIBLE
IMAGES MOVING FROM THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR TOWARD
THE ITCZ...WITHOUT CYCLONIC TURNING. I AM INCLINED NOT TO
BELIEVE THAT A SURFACE TROUGH EXISTED AT THE TIME THAT IT WAS
ADDED TO THE MAP AND WHERE IT WAS PUT ON THE MAP ANALYSIS
YESTERDAY. THAT IS NOT TO SAY THAT A SURFACE TROUGH MAY NOT
FORM AT SOME TIME IN THE FUTURE IN THE ITCZ. I HAVE STUDIED
THE LATEST METEOSAT-9 VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS MORNING AND I AM
CONVINCED THAT NO SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE ITCZ AT THIS TIME.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AWAY FROM THE ITCZ AT
THIS TIME...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN
AND 4W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 45W.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[Gustywind]

I dont remember a very long paragrafh like this one made only for the ITCZ.The only word I have for it is WOW!

000
AXNT20 KNHC 151045
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED APR 15 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM 5N8W AT THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR ALONG 18W TO 3S30W.....AND GOING INTO NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED ALONG 13W AT
15/0000 UTC. I STUDIED ALL THE AVAILABLE METEOSAT-9 VISIBLE
SATELLITE FROM 14/0930 UTC UNTIL 14/1645 UTC AND I SAW ONLY
A SMALL AMOUNT OF CYCLONIC TURNING AT AN UNKNOWN LEVEL IN THE
ATMOSPHERE NEAR 2N17W AT THE END OF THAT CYCLE OF IMAGES.
I SAW A SOLID FIELD OF LOW CLOUDS IN THAT CYCLE OF VISIBLE
IMAGES MOVING FROM THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR TOWARD
THE ITCZ...WITHOUT CYCLONIC TURNING. I AM INCLINED NOT TO
BELIEVE THAT A SURFACE TROUGH EXISTED AT THE TIME THAT IT WAS
ADDED TO THE MAP AND WHERE IT WAS PUT ON THE MAP ANALYSIS
YESTERDAY. THAT IS NOT TO SAY THAT A SURFACE TROUGH MAY NOT
FORM AT SOME TIME IN THE FUTURE IN THE ITCZ. I HAVE STUDIED
THE LATEST METEOSAT-9 VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS MORNING AND I AM
CONVINCED THAT NO SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE ITCZ AT THIS TIME.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AWAY FROM THE ITCZ AT
THIS TIME...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN
AND 4W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 45W.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

Absolutely agree with you, WOW i'm a bit amazed

[gatorcane]

New Convection blowing up on the right-side of the image, not that unusual for this time of year. Each one will poof long before existing Africa or poof as soon as it exits Africa. In about 6 more weeks the chances do increase some of something forming (i.e. Bertha of last year) but still pretty remote until about August.

That discussion above is interesting, seems to think maybe a trough is starting to form out there. SSTs are still below normal and shear is high so no development in the future.

[Gustywind]

At this period Gatorcane, one word...WAIT, you're absolutely right.