Development in the SW Caribbean this Week?

[gatorcane]

Let's continue the discussion here as I do believe it warrants special attention.

This thread will be killed once we see a few runs with no system and will stay alive otherwise. GFS is flirting with the idea of something getting going from the disturbed area in the EPAC you see below.

Now that real convection is there, time to open up a new thread to blob watch....this convection is headed towards the SW Caribbean over the next several days. Expect alot of disturbed weather to be in the Western and SW Caribbean starting this weekend and into next week as the MJO wet phase is moving in.

[punkyg]

How strong is the wind shear at the moment? I don't know since I lost my link.

When is it expected to drop to more favorable levels cause from what I see it don't look so nice down there.

[tolakram]

ATLANTIC

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html



EPAC

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g9sht.html

[punkyg]

thankyou for the link!

oh and its seems like the shear is decreasing so it still possible for something to happen over the weekend.

[boca]

The best for Florida would be something down there to form and not be so strong given its late April early May. I 'm hoping for development out there since its been so dry.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Let's get a nice juicy tropical depression up here into the
Florida desert!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

What's that feature in the western gulf? It is not intense...but
something to ask about

[NDG]

Very slim possibilities, IMO, for something to form in the SW Caribbean as the GFS is or was coming out with, if anything it has been dropping it for the past 24hrs. Most likely in the EPAC. But I would not be surprised if something does form later on in May 2 to 4 weeks from now.

[boca]

It looks like the GFS is finished with the phantom storm this time around. The last 3 runs haven't shown the system.Thr GFS did the same exact thing last May for 2 weeks and nothing happened.This shouldn't be surprising to anyone,but on the defense of the GFS it did sniff out lower pressure in the area.

[wxman57]

ATLANTIC

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

EPAC

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g9sht.html

Careful, those aren't wind shear charts, they represent the 24-hour change in wind shear (shear tendency). The actual wind shear charts are on the same link, though, just click the "wind shear" link above the image and you'll see the chart below. Wind shear in the SW-W Caribbean is between 30-60 kts now. Quite strong. Now the question is, what will the wind shear be in 10 days? Doesn't matter what it is now. Regardless, we see the GFS do this every season at this time as it sees convection begin to creep northward with the ITCZ. Most likely, nothing will develop.

[gatorcane]

00Z GFS brings this system back and moving towards the NW Caribbean in 276 hours. the 06Z GFS seems to lose it some again but still shows some kind of broad area of low pressure

The ECMWF does not show anything nor does any other model. We'll continue to watch but given the wind shear, the time of year, and lack of model support, it has the odds stacked against it.

[tolakram]

Careful, those aren't wind shear charts,

True, but I like all the pretty background colors, I tend to ignore the change lines.

[wxman57]

Careful, those aren't wind shear charts,

True, but I like all the pretty background colors, I tend to ignore the change lines.

Yes, they are quite pretty.

[Cookie]

Careful, those aren't wind shear charts,

True, but I like all the pretty background colors, I tend to ignore the change lines.

I must use that myself

[CrazyC83]

Please Ana, don't ruin my vacation!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

There is clearly a spin and a low just south of
the central america border into the pacific- due south
of the BOC, moving north..into central america
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rb.html

[wxman57]

GFS stopped forecasting development in recent runs. Certainly nothing next week. It does this every year at this time.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

GFS stopped forecasting development in recent runs. Certainly nothing next week. It does this every year at this time.

What about the diffuse low over Central America just south of the BOC?
Does that have a chance to organize, or at the least will it enhance rain over Florida
if the upper level winds can blow it eastward towards Florida?
I'm getting really thirsty.

[wxman57]

GFS stopped forecasting development in recent runs. Certainly nothing next week. It does this every year at this time.

What about the diffuse low over Central America just south of the BOC?
Does that have a chance to organize, or at the least will it enhance rain over Florida
if the upper level winds can blow it eastward towards Florida?
I'm getting really thirsty.

I don't see anything significant there. And wind shear is quite strong across the East Pacific and SW Caribbean. Give it another few month or two.

[tailgater]

Careful, those aren't wind shear charts,

True, but I like all the pretty background colors, I tend to ignore the change lines.

Not trying to be a nit picker, but I've seen it said a few times that these shear charts don't shear, but I beg to differ.
The colors show the amount of shear(see the index on the right side of chart) and the isobar like contour lines show 24 hr change.