Third round...for an Unsetteled Weather in Eastern Caribbean

[Gustywind]

You would say it's a joke, or a fuss, but no it's not... for the third time in less than a week Guadeloupe is under another yellow alert since yesterday 5 PM. Given Meteo-France another moist and instable air mass will stall until Tuesday, and consequently we should experience numerous strong showers added to light thunderstorms all this week-end with a peak of activity tommorow, Monday and Tuesday one word waouw, we're only the 15th MAY i do not speak about the juicy amounts we received here, and it's not apparently finished!
Important thing: our Pro-Met say that upper levels seems conducive to sustain convection for the next 72H. As a result the risk of flooding is amplified! I remember the sad scenario of Martinica, be on your guard in the Windwards although the moist air mass seems directly affect the Leewards especially Guadeloupe, for the moment.
Definitely, we're in the zone, and testifying how very close the hurricane season is.
Hey islanders keep watching it carefully. I will glad to have your observations HUC, Cycloneye, Abajan, all carib islanders too. No precipitations in my location, wind is calm, weather is overcast, grey...
Nice regards from Guadeloupe.
Gustywind

[cycloneye]

According to the San Juan AFD,it will be a wet week in the Eastern Caribbean so a third round thread is good to have from now.


000
FXCA62 TJSJ 161037
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
637 AM AST SAT MAY 16 2009

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS WILL REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF A TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN UNTIL ITS PASSAGE TUESDAY EVENING. A LOCAL
JET MAXIMUM WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...BUT WILL RETURN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT
AND A RIDGE WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

AT MID LEVELS...DESPITE THE STRENGTH AND SIZE OF A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE ABOUT 1200 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN...THE LOCAL AREA
WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING OUT OF SOUTH
AMERICA. THIS RIDGE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WEST DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEK AND THEN RETURN AS CLOSE AS HISPANIOLA BY MONDAY OF THE
FOLLOWING WEEK. THE STRONGEST INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE AREA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY DOMINATES THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...IT WILL WEAKEN DURING THE WEEKEND AND A TROUGH
WILL BE ABLE TO DEEPEN FROM SOUTH AMERICA...ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...TO
A STRONG LOW ABOUT 1200 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...NEAR 32
NORTH 53 WEST. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH COPIOUS MOISTURE MONDAY. ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE TRIES
TO RETURN TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK GENERATING
ANOTHER WET WEEK FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS GENERATING
JUST OFFSHORE AND THEN MOVING INLAND ON EAST NORTHEAST FLOW. MUCH
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN COAST AND FOOTHILLS HAVE
RECEIVED RAIN THAT RANGED FROM A TRACE TO ALMOST ONE HALF INCH.
MODELS ARE INDICATING A LITTLE LESS CLOUD COVER AND RAIN DURING
THE WEEKEND AND THE DRIEST PERIOD MAY BE TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE FAVORED AREAS OF WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO TODAY...PERHAPS LESS TOMORROW...SUNDAY.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A TROUGH ENTERING THE SOUTHEAST CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING. THAT TROUGH CURRENTLY APPEARS
AS A CLOUD ENHANCEMENT THAT STRETCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS...ROUGHLY FROM 10 NORTH 64 WEST TO 19 NORTH 54 WEST.
MODELS HAVE BEEN HARPING ON THIS SYSTEM FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND NAM DIFFER CONSIDERABLY ON THE LOCAL DETAILS.
THE GFS FAVORS MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND BUILDING TO OUR
NORTH IN SEVERAL...LIKELY SPURIOUS...BULLS EYES OF PRECIPITATION.
ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT 850 MB FADE FROM THEIR HIGHS
MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA...THEY SHOW AREAS OF 80 PLUS
PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MAY 24. THE NAM
BRINGS IN VERY DRY AIR TONIGHT AT 850 MB...LESS THAN 50 PERCENT RH
OVER SAN JUAN...AND THEN ADVANCES RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 95 PLUS
PERCENT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BEGINNING 18Z SUNDAY AND
PASSING OUT OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE
NORTH BY 12Z MONDAY. A SECOND WAVE OF MOISTURE ROLLS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY EVENING.

AT THE MOMENT FAVOR THE GFS INTERPRETATION MOST. THE NAM SEEMS TO
HAVE ARRIVED AT ITS SOLUTION OF STRONG BANDED PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE FORMATION OF A STRONGER WAVE AROUND THE TROUGH THAN IS
ACTUALLY LIKELY AND HAS BEEN OVER AMPLIFYING ALL FEATURES IN THE
SAME MANNER DURING THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
NAM SHOWS MORE MOISTURE FOLLOWING THE TROUGH PASSAGE ON MONDAY
THAN THE GFS AND DUE TO THE PERSISTING WET CONDITIONS IN THE
ENTIRE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WOULD TEND TO AGREE THAT THIS IS THE MORE
LIKELY SCENARIO.

THEREFORE EXPECT INCREASING SHOWERS FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH CONSIDERABLE RAIN AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND GENERALLY WET WEATHER TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY
EVEN WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH WILL
BE QUITE WET...DO NOT BELIEVE THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE QUITE
STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE VERY HEAVY RAIN. NEVERTHELESS WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM 1.8 TO 2.1 INCHES OVER A WIDE AREA
OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...THE UPPER LEVEL JET IN THE VICINITY AND
THE TROUGH HOLDING TO THE WEST UNTIL LATE TUESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE
QUITE FAVORABLE TO WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THAT WILL EVENTUALLY GENERATE SOME FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND
MAIN STEM RIVERS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF MUDSLIDES ACROSS A FAIRLY
WIDE AREA OF PUERTO RICO. AMOUNTS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
HAVE TYPICALLY BEEN LIGHTER THAN OVER PUERTO RICO THIS
MONTH...BUT THIS PATTERN WILL EXTEND THE PERIOD OF WELL-ABOVE
NORMAL RAINFALL THERE...EVEN THOUGH FLOODING IS NOT PARTICULARLY
LIKELY. WET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE BUT WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO
PREDICT...BECAUSE THE GFS IS TRYING TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH WHICH WILL CAUSE FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHERLY OVER THE AREA.
THIS IN TURN WILL BRING CONSIDERABLE RAINFALL TO THE SOUTHERN
SLOPES AND MAY ALSO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ON THE NORTH HALF OF
THE ISLAND SHOULD SUFFICIENT SUN BE SEEN. THAT SAID THOUGH...MODELS HAVE
BEEN SHOWING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AND EXPECT
THAT THIS WILL BE THE CASE. WILL ISSUE AN ESF FOR UPCOMING RAIN
SITUATION SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST TAF SITES
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. BETWEEN 10-16Z...SOME VCSH ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS TNCM...TKPK...TIST...TISX...TJSJ AND TJPS. AFTER 16Z...EXPECT
AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE INTERIOR OF
PUERTO RICO TO BRING TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TJMZ FROM
16-22Z. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS NEAR SHOWERS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS SHOULD
BE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO AFTER ABOUT 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS HAVE BROUGHT SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET ACROSS MOST
AREAS EXPOSED TO EASTERLY WINDS. ALTHOUGH SEAS ARE TO SUBSIDE DUE
TO WINDS...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEAR 32.5 NORTH 53.1 WEST
HAS GALE FORCE WINDS IN ITS NORTHWEST QUADRANT WHICH WILL
GENERATE OF 4 TO 6 FOOT SWELL FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ROUGH AND CONFUSED CONDITIONS TO ALL
AREAS NOT IN THE SHADOW OF THE NORTH NORTHEASTERLY SWELL.
CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE SLOWLY TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

[Gustywind]

According to the San Juan AFD,it will be a wet week in the Eastern Caribbean so a third round thread is good to have from now.


000
FXCA62 TJSJ 161037
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
637 AM AST SAT MAY 16 2009

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS WILL REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF A TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN UNTIL ITS PASSAGE TUESDAY EVENING. A LOCAL
JET MAXIMUM WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...BUT WILL RETURN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT
AND A RIDGE WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

AT MID LEVELS...DESPITE THE STRENGTH AND SIZE OF A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE ABOUT 1200 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN...THE LOCAL AREA
WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING OUT OF SOUTH
AMERICA. THIS RIDGE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WEST DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEK AND THEN RETURN AS CLOSE AS HISPANIOLA BY MONDAY OF THE
FOLLOWING WEEK. THE STRONGEST INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE AREA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY DOMINATES THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...IT WILL WEAKEN DURING THE WEEKEND AND A TROUGH
WILL BE ABLE TO DEEPEN FROM SOUTH AMERICA...ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...TO
A STRONG LOW ABOUT 1200 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...NEAR 32
NORTH 53 WEST. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH COPIOUS MOISTURE MONDAY. ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE TRIES
TO RETURN TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK GENERATING
ANOTHER WET WEEK FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS GENERATING
JUST OFFSHORE AND THEN MOVING INLAND ON EAST NORTHEAST FLOW. MUCH
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN COAST AND FOOTHILLS HAVE
RECEIVED RAIN THAT RANGED FROM A TRACE TO ALMOST ONE HALF INCH.
MODELS ARE INDICATING A LITTLE LESS CLOUD COVER AND RAIN DURING
THE WEEKEND AND THE DRIEST PERIOD MAY BE TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE FAVORED AREAS OF WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO TODAY...PERHAPS LESS TOMORROW...SUNDAY.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A TROUGH ENTERING THE SOUTHEAST CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING. THAT TROUGH CURRENTLY APPEARS
AS A CLOUD ENHANCEMENT THAT STRETCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS...ROUGHLY FROM 10 NORTH 64 WEST TO 19 NORTH 54 WEST.
MODELS HAVE BEEN HARPING ON THIS SYSTEM FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND NAM DIFFER CONSIDERABLY ON THE LOCAL DETAILS.
THE GFS FAVORS MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND BUILDING TO OUR
NORTH IN SEVERAL...LIKELY SPURIOUS...BULLS EYES OF PRECIPITATION.
ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT 850 MB FADE FROM THEIR HIGHS
MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA...THEY SHOW AREAS OF 80 PLUS
PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MAY 24. THE NAM
BRINGS IN VERY DRY AIR TONIGHT AT 850 MB...LESS THAN 50 PERCENT RH
OVER SAN JUAN...AND THEN ADVANCES RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 95 PLUS
PERCENT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BEGINNING 18Z SUNDAY AND
PASSING OUT OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE
NORTH BY 12Z MONDAY. A SECOND WAVE OF MOISTURE ROLLS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY EVENING.

AT THE MOMENT FAVOR THE GFS INTERPRETATION MOST. THE NAM SEEMS TO
HAVE ARRIVED AT ITS SOLUTION OF STRONG BANDED PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE FORMATION OF A STRONGER WAVE AROUND THE TROUGH THAN IS
ACTUALLY LIKELY AND HAS BEEN OVER AMPLIFYING ALL FEATURES IN THE
SAME MANNER DURING THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
NAM SHOWS MORE MOISTURE FOLLOWING THE TROUGH PASSAGE ON MONDAY
THAN THE GFS AND DUE TO THE PERSISTING WET CONDITIONS IN THE
ENTIRE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WOULD TEND TO AGREE THAT THIS IS THE MORE
LIKELY SCENARIO.

THEREFORE EXPECT INCREASING SHOWERS FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH CONSIDERABLE RAIN AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND GENERALLY WET WEATHER TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY
EVEN WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH WILL
BE QUITE WET...DO NOT BELIEVE THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE QUITE
STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE VERY HEAVY RAIN. NEVERTHELESS WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM 1.8 TO 2.1 INCHES OVER A WIDE AREA
OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...THE UPPER LEVEL JET IN THE VICINITY AND
THE TROUGH HOLDING TO THE WEST UNTIL LATE TUESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE
QUITE FAVORABLE TO WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THAT WILL EVENTUALLY GENERATE SOME FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND
MAIN STEM RIVERS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF MUDSLIDES ACROSS A FAIRLY
WIDE AREA OF PUERTO RICO. AMOUNTS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
HAVE TYPICALLY BEEN LIGHTER THAN OVER PUERTO RICO THIS
MONTH...BUT THIS PATTERN WILL EXTEND THE PERIOD OF WELL-ABOVE
NORMAL RAINFALL THERE...EVEN THOUGH FLOODING IS NOT PARTICULARLY
LIKELY. WET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE BUT WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO
PREDICT...BECAUSE THE GFS IS TRYING TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH WHICH WILL CAUSE FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHERLY OVER THE AREA.
THIS IN TURN WILL BRING CONSIDERABLE RAINFALL TO THE SOUTHERN
SLOPES AND MAY ALSO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ON THE NORTH HALF OF
THE ISLAND SHOULD SUFFICIENT SUN BE SEEN. THAT SAID THOUGH...MODELS HAVE
BEEN SHOWING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AND EXPECT
THAT THIS WILL BE THE CASE. WILL ISSUE AN ESF FOR UPCOMING RAIN
SITUATION SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST TAF SITES
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. BETWEEN 10-16Z...SOME VCSH ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS TNCM...TKPK...TIST...TISX...TJSJ AND TJPS. AFTER 16Z...EXPECT
AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE INTERIOR OF
PUERTO RICO TO BRING TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TJMZ FROM
16-22Z. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS NEAR SHOWERS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS SHOULD
BE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO AFTER ABOUT 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS HAVE BROUGHT SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET ACROSS MOST
AREAS EXPOSED TO EASTERLY WINDS. ALTHOUGH SEAS ARE TO SUBSIDE DUE
TO WINDS...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEAR 32.5 NORTH 53.1 WEST
HAS GALE FORCE WINDS IN ITS NORTHWEST QUADRANT WHICH WILL
GENERATE OF 4 TO 6 FOOT SWELL FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ROUGH AND CONFUSED CONDITIONS TO ALL
AREAS NOT IN THE SHADOW OF THE NORTH NORTHEASTERLY SWELL.
CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE SLOWLY TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

Tkanks Cycloneye . Yeah given the the weather predictions...you're right pretty unsettelled .

[cycloneye]

Very wet forecast for us.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
549 AM AST SUN MAY 17 2009

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH WILL DIG THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN MOVE EAST...PASSING PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON TUESDAY. A RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND
IT ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THEN SLOWLY DRIFT
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SECOND TROUGH WILL
PASS THROUGH THE FOLLOWING MONDAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASED JET
ACTIVITY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS PUERTO RICO FROM THE
SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN TO A HIGH NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RE-GROUPS ALONG 70 WEST THURSDAY WITH TWO LOW SYSTEMS...ONE
STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF AND A MATURE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...FORMING A HARD-TO-MOVE BLOCK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
PULL NORTH WHILE A LOW NEAR 32 NORTH AND 53 WEST IN THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC SLOWLY DECAYS IN PLACE. ON THURSDAY THE LOW MOVES SOUTH
OF 30 WEST. SURFACE FLOW IS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND GENERALLY
MOIST.


&&

.DISCUSSION...LOWER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BE EAST NORTHEAST AND
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY CONSTANT. VERY LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE CROSSED THE
ISLANDS OF SAINT JOHN AND SAINT THOMAS AND A FEW SHOWERS PUSHED
ONSHORE IN NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO. THE SOUNDER IN SAN JUAN
CONTINUES TO SHOW FALLING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS A DRY SLOT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF A TROUGH.

THIS NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE ACROSS PUERTO
RICO ON MONDAY MORNING. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE RELATIVELY IN
LINE WITH THE TIMING AND THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE
AREA BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z. THE NAM APPEARS TO INDICATE A STRONGER AND
MORE DEFINED LINE OF CONVECTION THAT MOVES THROUGH EASTERN PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AROUND 15Z. MOISTURE CONTENT IS
NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS PREVIOUS RUNS INDICATED 24 HOURS AGO...BUT
PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL PEAKS ABOVE 2 INCHES AND EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE DAY. RAINFALL MAY ALSO AFFECT NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO AS
CONVECTION SHIFTS WITH THE WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH. SOUTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUES DURING THE WEEK AND THIS WILL ENHANCE THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL PUERTO RICO BY
SEVERAL DEGREES MID WEEK. MOISTURE MODERATES AT THE SAME TIME BUT
BY NO MEANS BECOMES DRY AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST
AND WESTERN INTERIOR PUERTO RICO WILL BE REGULARS. ANOTHER BAND OF
MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEAST FLOW FORMS OVER AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
ISLANDS ON SATURDAY AS WET WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST TAF SITES
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. BETWEEN 10-16Z...PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS TNCM...TKPK...TIST...TISX AND TJSJ.
AFTER 16Z...EXPECT AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO TO BRING TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS TJMZ FROM 16-22Z. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO
15 KTS...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS NEAR SHOWERS. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO AFTER
ABOUT 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...SWELL FROM A PERSISTENT LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ARE
BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE WATERS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS AS
HIGH AS 8.5 FEET WERE NOTED IN THE ATLANTIC AT BUOY 41043. SEAS IN
THE FORECAST AREA ARE BEGINNING TO FEEL THE EFFECT OF THESE SWELL
FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST...AND THIS WILL HOLD ATLANTIC WATERS AND
PASSAGES JUST ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH AROUND
TUESDAY NOON. SEAS IN THE CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH AS WINDS GENERATED BY HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC ALSO DIMINISH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ABOUT BRINGING A WET
TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND THEN KEEPING THE AREA
RELATIVELY MOIST. THIS WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE ISLAND
ON MONDAY WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING UPWARDS OF 6 INCHES IN THE
PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MANY
AREAS TO RECEIVE 1 TO 3 INCHES ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD LIKELY
TRIGGER URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AS WELL AS RISES AND LOCAL
FLOODING IN MAIN STEM RIVERS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL IT IS CLEAR THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP A
LITTLE MORE BEFORE PASSING THROUGH AND TIMING IS BETTER KNOWN. BUT
WETTER WEATHER IS DEFINITELY ON THE WAY EVEN THOUGH CURRENT DRIER
CONDITIONS AND SKIES WITH ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WOULD SEEM TO
INDICATE OTHERWISE.

IN THE MEANTIME...WITH FLOW CONTINUING FROM THE NORTHEAST...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED IN SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO WITH THE RIO GUANAJIBO
APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE. AT THIS TIME EXPECT FLOW TO BEGIN
CHANGING SO THAT THE FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS NOT DIRECTLY
OVER THE BASIN...BUT RAINFALL THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT. LOCAL
RAINFALL MAXIMUMS IN THE AREA WILL LIKELY REACH 2 TO 4 INCHES
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

[Gustywind]

Oh yeah Luis you're right so... take your umbrella!
About Guadeloupe we're always in yellow alert for a risk of strong showers and tstorms. We received yesterday afternoon in some locations (Petit-Bourg and Capesterre Belle-Eau) 100 millimeters in a few hours. Today could be given the weather predictions of Meteo-France: pretty wet moist unstable with a high risk of strong showers added to tstorms locally.
Let's wait and see what happens, for the moment the weather is calm with numerous clouds, no showers in vicinity.

[cycloneye]

Here it comes

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
411 PM AST SUN MAY 17 2009

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT MAINLY DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON...TO
RAPIDLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH MINIMAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE...PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. CAN ALREADY SEE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH SHOWING UP ON RADAR ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF SAINT
CROIX...AND EXPECT A SLOW PROGRESSION OF THIS ACTIVITY NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS DEPICTED IN ALL THE
GLOBAL MODELS BY LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY...EXPECT A SHIFT IN THE
SYNOPTIC WIND FLOW TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH WILL MEAN INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
THE WEEK...BRINGING TEMPS CLOSER TO OR JUST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS...DEPENDING ON SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH DAY. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
TO INHERITED FORECAST TODAY TO KEEP IN LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE
IN THE SHORT TERM AND TO NUDGE THE EXTENDED PORTION MORE TOWARDS
CLIMATOLOGY...BUT OVERALL...FOCUS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WILL
BE THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...ALONG
WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR WIDESPREAD AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE
LOCAL TAF SITES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT ACROSS TJBQ
AND TJMZ...WHERE A PASSING SHRA COULD RESULT IN TEMPORARY MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH 17/22Z. FOR TOMORROW...EXPECT A SHIFT IN WIND
FLOW TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION...WITH TEMPORARY MVFR
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SFC TROUGH BEGINNING
ACROSS TISX AROUND 12Z...AND SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS ALL THE
LOCAL TAF SITES BY 16-18Z.

&&

.MARINE...LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHEASTERLY SWELLS...ASSOCIATED WITH
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND
CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[msbee]

all this weather is just passing St. Maarten by and we really need some rain.
yesterday was a beautiful day.
Today it is very cloudy but absolutely no rain.
send some our way please!

Barbara

[Gustywind]

all this weather is just passing St. Maarten by and we really need some rain.
yesterday was a beautiful day.
Today it is very cloudy but absolutely no rain.
send some our way please!

Barbara

Hi Barbara, keep your fingers crossed and wait a bit... matter of time

[cycloneye]

It has been a busy afternoon in Puerto Rico in terms of flood advisorys.A combination of diurnal heating with an upper trough and surface trough has been the cause.It all depends on the troughs if better weather comes this weekend.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
437 PM AST THU MAY 21 2009

PRC029-037-053-085-089-103-119-212330-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0112.090521T2037Z-090521T2330Z/
/00000.N..000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LAS PIEDRAS PR-LUQUILLO PR-NAGUABO PR-CEIBA PR-CANOVANAS PR-
FAJARDO PR-RIO GRANDE PR-
437 PM AST THU MAY 21 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
LAS PIEDRAS...LUQUILLO...NAGUABO...CEIBA...CANOVANAS...FAJARDO
AND RIO GRANDE

* UNTIL 730 PM AST

* AT 430 PM AST...NWS DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THESE
AREAS...ESPECIALLY FROM NAGUABO AND CEIBA NORTHWESTWARD TO RIO
GRANDE AND CANOVANAS SO FAR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS BEEN IN AND
AROUND CENTRAL NAGUABO AND NORTHERN CEIBA. WITHIN THE PAST
HOUR...ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
AFFECTED AREA...RANGED FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES. AT LEAST THROUGH
730 PM AST...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH
THESE AREAS PRODUCING ONE OR MORE INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1827 6561 1817 6573 1827 6590 1840 6581

$$

JFR

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN








--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
326 PM AST THU MAY 21 2009

PRC019-045-212230-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0111.090521T1926Z-090521T2230Z/
/00000.N..000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COMERIO PR-BARRANQUITAS PR-
326 PM AST THU MAY 21 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
COMERIO AND BARRANQUITAS

* UNTIL 630 PM AST

* AT 324 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER
COMERIO AND BARRANQUITAS. THESE SHOWERS ARE ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED
MODERATE THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF 324 PM AST...THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS WERE LOCATED
OVER BARRANQUITAS AND WERE NEARLY STATIONARY. ESTIMATED RADAR ACCUMULATIONS OF
ONE TO THREE INCHES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED BY DOPPLER RADAR THE PAST HOUR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1826 6636 1826 6625 1825 6623 1817 6622
1816 6628 1817 6634

$$

CASTRO

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN








--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
305 PM AST THU MAY 21 2009

PRC011-027-065-081-083-097-099-131-141-212200-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0110.090521T1905Z-090521T2200Z/
/00000.N..000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MOCA PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-UTUADO PR-LAS MARIAS PR-LARES PR-CAMUY PR-
HATILLO PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-ANASCO PR-
305 PM AST THU MAY 21 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
MOCA...SAN SEBASTIAN...UTUADO...LAS MARIAS...LARES...CAMUY...
HATILLO...MAYAGUEZ AND ANASCO

* UNTIL 600 PM AST

* AT 301 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS
ARE ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED MODERATE THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF 301 PM
AST...THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS WERE LOCATED OVER LAS MARIAS...LARES...
AND SAN SEBASTIAN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST. ESTIMATED RADAR ACCUMULATIONS
OF ONE TO TWO INCHES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED BY DOPPLER RADAR THE PAST HOUR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1827 6715 1832 6713 1841 6678 1832 6675
1821 6700

$$

CASTRO

[cycloneye]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC003-005-099-220115-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0019.090521T2351Z-090522T0115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
751 PM AST THU MAY 21 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
MOCA
AGUADILLA
AGUADA

* UNTIL 915 PM AST

* RUNOFF FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL HAS CAUSED THE RIO CULEBRINAS
TO GO ABOVE ITS FLOOD STAGE. THIS IS THE RESULT OF EARLIER
EPISODES OF HEAVY RAIN OVER THE RIVER BASIN. THE LEVEL OF THE
RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
MINOR FLOODING ACROSS THE RIVER BASIN WILL CONTINUE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 1837 6705 1834 6707 1839 6719 1843 6716

$$

JFR

[msbee]

LUIs.
where is this weather coming from? going?
things in SXM are quiet. sunny and beautiful. no rain..we need rain!

[cycloneye]

LUIs.
where is this weather coming from? going?
things in SXM are quiet. sunny and beautiful. no rain..we need rain!

From the west slowly as the surface trough combines with the upper trough and dumps all of this rain from Haiti,Dominican Republic and PR.All of these troughs are leftovers from what was 90L.

[gatorcane]

The 18Z NAM keeps the troughiness around the big islands in the Caribbean for days and days. Even 84 hours from now we see widespread showers and rainfall in about the same area as where we see it now, only not quite as concentrated:

[cycloneye]

San Juan NWS has an update about the disturbance south of Hispanola.I would not be surprised if a invest for this is up if it persists.

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 220208 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1008 PM AST THU MAY 21 2009

.UPDATE...DOPPLER RADAR LOOPS OUT OF PR AND PUNTA CANA APPEAR TO
SHOW A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION NEARLY STATIONARY JUST
SOUTHWEST OF SAONA ISLAND AND LA ROMANA IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
THIS IS BEING SUPPORTED BY STRONG UPPER DIFLUENCE ALOFT AS SEEN
ON SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. IR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY INTENSE
CONVECTION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WITH CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -76C.
SOME CONCERN EXISTS THAT THIS MID-LVL DISTURBANCE MAY APPROACH PR
TOMORROW WHICH COULD RESULT IN SERIOUS FLOODING PROBLEMS. MODEL
DATA SPECIFICALLY THE GFS IS HANDLING THIS WX SCENARIO QUITE WELL
AND SHOWS THIS DISTURBANCE PROPAGATING EAST NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND MOVING IT ACROSS PR DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. IF THIS
DISTURBANCE CAN HOLD TOGETHER FOR ANOTHER 24 HRS SOME SERIOUS
FLOODING PROBLEMS MAY EVOLVE TOMORROW. AM GOING TO HOLD ON A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH ATTM AWAITING NEW MODEL DATA AND TRENDS IN SATELLITE
AND RADAR IMAGERY.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[cycloneye]

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS CREATED DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE AREA TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA...AND TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND
MOVING INTO THE MONA PASSAGE. A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...
WHICH JUST MEANS A BIG AREA OF NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...HAS FORMED IN THE AREA OF THE DIFFLUENT WIND
FLOW...WITH PRECIPITATION FROM 14N TO THE SOUTHERN COASTS OF
HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN 70W AND 73W.
PRECIPITATION MUST BE REACHING THE SOUTHERN SHORELINES OF HAITI
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO. HEAVY
RAINFALL AND MAJOR FLOODING HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN SECTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA WITH AT LEAST FOUR DEATHS REPORTED IN HAITI DURING
THE LAST FEW DAYS. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[GeneratorPower]

That's quite a blob. I wonder what it is.

[msbee]

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS CREATED DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE AREA TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA...AND TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND
MOVING INTO THE MONA PASSAGE. A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...
WHICH JUST MEANS A BIG AREA OF NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...HAS FORMED IN THE AREA OF THE DIFFLUENT WIND
FLOW...WITH PRECIPITATION FROM 14N TO THE SOUTHERN COASTS OF
HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN 70W AND 73W.
PRECIPITATION MUST BE REACHING THE SOUTHERN SHORELINES OF HAITI
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO. HEAVY
RAINFALL AND MAJOR FLOODING HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN SECTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA WITH AT LEAST FOUR DEATHS REPORTED IN HAITI DURING
THE LAST FEW DAYS. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

wow, be careful over there. That is a lot of convection.
which way is this moving?

[OURAGAN]

This system is moving east, may be the next caribbeen rainer.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 73W-77W. FURTHER NE...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF HISPANIOLA FROM
13N-18N BETWEEN 68W-73W MOVING E.THE CONVECTION IS DUE TO UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND HAS A GOOD AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING. A TROPICAL
WAVE IS ALSO OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SHOWERS. SEE ABOVE.
EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION FROM THE SW TO NE CARIBBEAN OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[OURAGAN]

I mean thex next east caribbean rainer (Lesser antilles)

[KWT]

Area of convection may at the very least give a fair bit of rain and storms if it keeps its strength as it moves on.