Possible Subtropical Cyclone near the Azores

[HURAKAN]

Incredible!

[Chacor]

That does look very nice.

[RL3AO]

June fools day? That looks really good.

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/loop-rgb.html

WOW!

[HURAKAN]

June fools day? That looks really good.

No joke. I am as impressed as you are.

[Chacor]

Not quite a gale system, according to Meteo-France.

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... QNT50.LFPW

Part 1 : NO WARNING.

Part 2 : General synopsis, Monday 1 at 00 UTC

Low 1001 39N28W moving north, expected 999 44N24W by 02/12UTC.

Part 3 : Area forecasts to Tuesday 2 at 12 UTC

ALTAIR :
In west, Northerly 6 or 7 backing North or Northwest 5 or 6 later.
In east, East or Southeast 3 to 5 becoming cyclonic 5 to 7 soon.
Rough or very rough in west, and moderate or rough in east.
Thundery rain or showers. Severe gusts.

ACORES :
In extreme east, South or Southwest 6 or 7 gradually veering West
or Southwest 4 to 6. Elsewhere, Northwesterly 4 to 6. Moderate or
rough, locally very rough in west. Thundery rain or showers.
Gusts.

Force 8 is a gale.

[TheEuropean]

Looks very impressive to me. SST are only 17 to 18 Celsius, some degrees below temperatures when Epsilon, Zeta, Vince etc. made their way near Azores ans Canaries.

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

The 12 UTC surface analysis shows the low at 1002 mbs.

[wxman57]

Just a cold core low over cold water, and probably won't be more than that. Currently, max winds of 35-40 kts are located between 400-500nm NW of the center with 30-35 kt winds about 300 miles NE-SE of the center. Winds within 100 miles of the center are closer to 20-30 kts.

[Category 5]

Are there any upper level temperature anomalies? If so it would have a case.

[Cainer]

SSD has a floater on it now:



Convection isn't all that deep, but not bad for being over such cold waters.

[cycloneye]

It got SSD T numbers.

01/1745 UTC 39.9N 24.7W T1.5/1.5 INVEST -- Atlantic

[Cyclone1]

Wow, this is pretty cool. Very impressive, nice catch Hurakan!

92L in the near future?

[Aric Dunn]

ok thats is interesting.,.. i guess by definition..

would be sub tropical as long as the temp gradient is such that it does not get colder the closer you get...

well i guess in that case it could be a warm core ( not saying it is) if the temp gradient increases the closer you get to the center even if it is in the 50's and 60's

lol

[Aric Dunn]

check out the evolution of this thing....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/neatl/loop-wv.html

[Aric Dunn]

well...

GFS makes it sub trop....




and the UKMET

[HURAKAN]

Earlier:

[HURAKAN]

[Ed Mahmoud]

Sink or swim time. It looks like it has completely occluded, the GFS shows the parent 500 mb low slowly weakening through the next 3 days, and weakens the surface low along with it.


Being occluded, it has lost a direct connection to higher moisture/temperature (I'd use a fancy term like Θe or equivalent temperature, but as an rank amateur, that would just be presumptuous) so it is hard to see how it can maintain thunderstorms over water temps in the 60s for very long.