Phil Klotzbach / Dr Gray June update=11/5/2

[cycloneye]

They lowered their numbers to (11/5/2) from their April forecast that had (12/6/2)

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... un2009.pdf

[Macrocane]

Last year they did a good forecast for the season after 3 consecutive years of inaccurate forecasts, maybe this year they will be succesfull again, if that's true this season will be very similar to 2006 . By the way, their numbers are very similar to my humble and amateur forecast of 11/4/2

[hurricanetrack]

I don't know, the Atlantic looks fairly warm overall to me. There are some areas east of 40 west that are only slighly below normal but all of the deep blues indicating quite cold anomalies are gone in the east Atlantic. The corridor from about 45 west straight in to the Caribbean and then the GOM is above normal to nearly 1 degree C.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anom.gif

We shall see. The season is here and the clock is ticking. If we don't get a lot of frontal, high-latitude development over the next 60 days then I would expect that the meat of the season could be right on track to be busy with plenty of storms and hurricanes to track. Could be that this season comes down to a 6 week period like it did in 2004. Only one way to find out....

[wxman57]

Numbers seem reasonable to me, perhaps still too high. As far as Atlantic SSTs, they're cooler than they've been in this warm AMO cycle that started in '95. Cooler temps would lead to fewer major hurricanes, not necessarily fewer named storms. It's El Nino which may be the big factor in reducing the numbers this year. Already, shear is high and the ITCZ fairly weak. It's quiet across the western and eastern Pacific, too. Maybe we won't see any storms at all this year?

[cycloneye]

I don't know, the Atlantic looks fairly warm overall to me. There are some areas east of 40 west that are only slighly below normal but all of the deep blues indicating quite cold anomalies are gone in the east Atlantic. The corridor from about 45 west straight in to the Caribbean and then the GOM is above normal to nearly 1 degree C.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anom.gif

We shall see. The season is here and the clock is ticking. If we don't get a lot of frontal, high-latitude development over the next 60 days then I would expect that the meat of the season could be right on track to be busy with plenty of storms and hurricanes to track. Could be that this season comes down to a 6 week period like it did in 2004. Only one way to find out....

Yes,I was somewhat surprised by the mention by them of cooler Atlantic waters but they didnt mention certain areas that are warmer.

[deltadog03]

I noticed that the AMO is or was starting to head NEG as well.

[cycloneye]

I noticed that the AMO is or was starting to head NEG as well.

Delta,for the members who may not know what AMO and NEG stanf for,post what both mean.

[cycloneye]

What I am worried about is complacency from the public as they hear in the news (now is 24/7) that the season will not be busy.

[Macrocane]

What I am worried about is complacency from the public as they hear in the news (now is 24/7) that the season will not be busy.

Yes that's a problem, they should remember that hurricanes can be damaging even during below average seasons. Andrew for US and Isidore for Mexico for example.

[deltadog03]

The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) is a mode of natural variability occurring in the North Atlantic Ocean and which has its principle expression in the sea surface temperature. We have been in a warm cycle for 14 years now **I think**

[somethingfunny]

What I am worried about is complacency from the public as they hear in the news (now is 24/7) that the season will not be busy.

This, along with the fact that they're rarely accurate, is why preseason numbers forecasts are utterly pointless in my opinion.

[Jinkers]

All it takes is one.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Because of the normal to below normal predictions this year. I think most people will be very complacent. Not much if any supplies will be bought. Unless the storm is on there door step. The economy also plays a big role to. People will not spend unless it is totally necessary. I think alot of people forgot Andrew. Hopefully NO landfalls this year.

[vbhoutex]

Because of the normal to below normal predictions this year. I think most people will be very complacent. Not much if any supplies will be bought. Unless the storm is on there door step. The economy also plays a big role to. People will not spend unless it is totally necessary. I think alot of people forgot Andrew. Hopefully NO landfalls this year.

I hope you are so wrong on the complacency, but I fear you are correct. I have already heard people who went through Ike last year say they are "not going to get together a hurricane kit because it won't happen here for another 25 years". BTW, this was a person who lives on Galveston Island and was flooded out.
I always have all but a few essential items for my kit no matter what time of year it is. I've learned after 50+ years and several hurricanes under my belt.
It really saddens me that people can be that stupid. I have no other word for it that I can post on here.

In that picture of the Dr's. the young Dr. Klotzbach sure does look just like the young man I met in Austin in May 2006 during severe thunderstorm event. He told me he was Dr. Klotzbach's best friend. His weather knowledge was better than mine and he knew exactly where Klotzbach had been that day, as I did. Coincidence or was I duped?