Weak trough from BOC to the Gulf of Tehauntepec

[tailgater]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at1_0.html


steering should move this trough North then NW into nortern mexico's east coast.
850mb vorticity

[BigA]

I was looking at that...intrigued. Before night fell I could see what looked like a swirl moving north toward the the southern Mexican coast. Vorticity is solid. I'll have to take another look in the morning.

(off topic) Man Andres's circulation looks powerful for a 40 mph TS!

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Station 42055
NDBC
Location: 22.017N 94.046W
Conditions as of:
Mon, 22 Jun 2009 09:50:00 UTC
Winds: E (80°) at 21.4 kt gusting to 25.3 kt
Significant Wave Height: 5.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 6 sec
Mean Wave Direction: E (91°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.78 in and falling
Air Temperature: 80.4 F
Dew Point: 79.9 F
Water Temperature: 83.3 F

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2009

...DISCUSSION...

IN INTERIOR MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ONE CYCLONIC
CENTER NEAR 26N102W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 23N98W TO
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 18N97W.
CLUSTERS OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN AREAS OF
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW...WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 17N94W
AND 18N93W IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 19N TO 20.5N
BETWEEN 93W AND 94W. A COMPLETELY INDEPENDENT MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N92W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS
CYCLONIC CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO ELSEWHERE...TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW WITH
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS APPROACHING FLORIDA AND THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM AREAS TO THE NORTH OF 30N.

[tailgater]

Latest Quick scat missed this area of course, maybe 57 can get us one of those GARP charts. The pressures are dropping slowly and there seems to be a weak trough at the surface. Should be inland fairly soon without much development but I guess it could bring a little rain to southern Texas maybe some surf for Irak.

[lrak]

Latest Quick scat missed this area of course, maybe 57 can get us one of those GARP charts. The pressures are dropping slowly and there seems to be a weak trough at the surface. Should be inland fairly soon without much development but I guess it could bring a little rain to southern Texas maybe some surf for Irak.

You got my heart pounding tailgater!

lrak / aka / karl

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Shear appears favorable. Time is the problem.

[tailgater]

Looks like some organization of this Blob that's not getting much play, I guess becuse it will be on shore before it can really spin up. But it does warrant a Bear Warch IMHO.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[drezee]

This looks like a quick hitter....WE NEED RECON!!! N winds at Tampico only proves the trough...we need a west wind.

[cycloneye]

At least it deserves a invest watch!

[cycloneye]

RAMSDIS has a floater over it.

[lrak]

RAMSDIS has a floater over it.

My mind is really racin now I can't work "things to do, wax board, get a tummy ache in a few days, and wax board again"

[tailgater]

A west wind earlier but NNw now and pressures pretty high. I don't put much faith in this model but earlier today it wasn;t showing anything down there and now it has a weak low.
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/d ... ind&loop=1

[brunota2003]

It also does not move the low inland, it keeps it just off of Mexico's coast, hugging the coast as it drifts north.

[Frank2]

It does look like a possible invest later today, that's for sure...

Also, it seems that the trough east of Florida needs to be watched...

Ugh

Update: Just as I posted the above, the below outlook was posted and has almost discontinued any tropical SIG WX ATTM - serves me right for judging a photo by it's cover (LOL)...

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2009

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 25N101W IS SUPPORTING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE S GULF OF MEXICO S OF 23N W OF
93W. ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL GULF...A 1012 MB STATIONARY
SURFACE HIGH NEAR 29N92W DOMINATES BRINGING FAIR WEATHER. THE
SURFACE HIGH HAS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
OVER S MISSISSIPPI NEAR 31N90W WHICH IS PROVIDING DEEP LAYER DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH IS
AFFECTING MUCH OF THE GULF...WITH SE WINDS OF 10-15 KTS
AFFECTING THE NW GULF W OF 93W. EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE
W ACROSS THE N GULF TOMORROW AND THEN MEANDER OVER THE WESTERN
WATERS WED.

[cycloneye]

2 PM Tropical Weather Outlook (Code Yellow)

789
ABNT20 KNHC 221735
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
BAY OF CAMPECHE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE OVER AREAS OF EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1735.shtml

[lrak]

Wow 30% is somewhat bullish?