Western Caribbean Disturbance

[ronjon]

Since there are several threads discussing the disturbance in the western caribbean I thought I'd make this one thread for this topic. Convection has increased overnight and several models are developing low pressure that eventually meaders NW into the GOM near the north coast of the Yucatan. The CMC, NAM, and GFS all indicate some sort of development with the Canadian the most aggressive. Could be an investigation later today.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2009062600&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/nam/06/index_slp_s_loop.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/index_slp_su_loop.shtml

[cycloneye]

297
ABNT20 KNHC 261140
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
SOUTHWESTWARD TO HONDURAS. CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE IT REACHES THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TODAY AND SPREAD
WESTWARD OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

We have invest 93L for this disturbance.Go to active storms forum to continue the discussions about this system.Thread is locked.

viewtopic.php?f=62&p=1888574#p1888574