Disturbance in the Carribean Sea

[tailgater]

Looks like a rather weak wave interacting with an ULL but there's not much out there right now and this thing should be moving into a bit more favorable area in a day or two. No football for weeks.

[Ed Mahmoud]

No evidence it develops, however, GFS brings the associated moisture to Northern Tamilipaus and possibly extreme South Texas.


If it comes just a bit further North, if the death ridge doesn't reassert quite as strongly, it might bring needed rain to my lawn.

[Sanibel]

Another ghost system mimicking formation.

[cycloneye]

[tailgater]

Sounds like a lot of ifs Ed but what the hey we can dream. I've just about given up on my lawn $90 water bill last month and it still looks like it's dying. I have all most no faith in models this far out but. Rain at my house and a low in the GOH.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The NAM has been bullish on development of the last couple of promising systems, and hasn't been right yet.


But there is always a first time.

[MGC]

Conditions in the Atlantic basin remain unfavorable for TC development. Still lots of shear.....MGC

[gatorcane]

Some weak convergence exists as shown by the 850mb vorticity chart and convergence chart, however wind shear out ahead of this wave is ripping west to east around 30-40K.

[HURAKAN]

Shear appears to be more favorable in the WCAR, but it looks mostly unfavorable in the rest of Caribbean and GOM.

[southerngale]

Hey HURAKAN, how 'bout an explanation of what that image shows for those who don't know how to read the maps and/or are trying to learn how?


Btw, here's the sticky in this forum with some great suggestions by staff and members: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=102151






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[Ed Mahmoud]

Hey HURAKAN, how 'bout an explanation of what that image shows for those who don't know how to read the maps and/or are trying to learn how?


Btw, here's the sticky in this forum with some great suggestions by staff and members: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=102151

30 knots of Westerly shear is hostile, and CIMMS satellite derived shear increases as the disturbance travels West.

Images above show some turning of the wind at 850 mb (ie, low level vorticity), image above that indicates weak/neutral convergence.


The thunderstorms, since this isn't much surface convergence, are actually probably a by-product of the shear and upper divergence.



Water vapor loop shows typical 'screaming eagle' look of a badly sheared wave.


Early season June into early August, the Eastern and Central Caribbean are often unfavorable shear wise, combination of upper level Westerlies and low level winds blowing strongly from East to West around the South American heat low.

As it gets later in Summer, and the ocean warms relative to the South American landmass, later August into September and October, the low level Easterlies, which enhance the shear and weaken convergence over the Caribbean, weaken considerably. The Western Caribbean, farther from South America due to the shape of the coastline, is less hostile in the early season than the Eastern Caribbean is.

[wxman57]

It's not just the mid/upper-level shear that's a problem in the Caribbean. Lower-level winds have been screaming out of the east. 850mb winds in the 25-45 kt range. This wave won't have much of a chance. But it is a bit higher in amplitude than we've seen in the Caribbean so far this season.

[Derek Ortt]

not looking for much from this wave. Shear/SAL far too high

[attallaman]

I got a good shower here at the house yesterday, a much better one the day before. My yard is starting to turn green again.

[Ed Mahmoud]

It's not just the mid/upper-level shear that's a problem in the Caribbean. Lower-level winds have been screaming out of the east. 850mb winds in the 25-45 kt range. This wave won't have much of a chance. But it is a bit higher in amplitude than we've seen in the Caribbean so far this season.

That is what I was trying to say.

Good plot synopsis.

[wxman57]

I made a graphic to demonstrate why the Caribbean is so hostile as far as tropical development this week. It's a contoured 850mb (5000 ft) isotach projection for Thursday morning, but it demonstrates fairly well what the tropical waves are encountering across the region.

Note that the red area represents E-ESE 850mb flow at 35-40 mph. Prior to Thursday, it was showing areas of 45-50 mph winds across the central Caribbean. So what's happening is the waves enter the Caribbean already moving at 20-25 mph and encounter increasing easterly flow in the lower few thousand feet. The acceleration results in divergence at the surface, leading to thunderstorm dissipation. These 850mb winds will have to diminish south of 20N for any development. Now JB has been saying that the Euro is projecting very high pressure across the Tropical Atlantic for August/September. This may mean continued strong easterly flow in the MDR, reducing development chances even in the middle of the season south of 20N.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I made a graphic to demonstrate why the Caribbean is so hostile as far as tropical development this week. It's a contoured 850mb (5000 ft) isotach projection for Thursday morning, but it demonstrates fairly well what the tropical waves are encountering across the region.

Note that the red area represents E-ESE 850mb flow at 35-40 mph. Prior to Thursday, it was showing areas of 45-50 mph winds across the central Caribbean. So what's happening is the waves enter the Caribbean already moving at 20-25 mph and encounter increasing easterly flow in the lower few thousand feet. The acceleration results in divergence at the surface, leading to thunderstorm dissipation. These 850mb winds will have to diminish south of 20N for any development. Now JB has been saying that the Euro is projecting very high pressure across the Tropical Atlantic for August/September. This may mean continued strong easterly flow in the MDR, reducing development chances even in the middle of the season south of 20N.

Amateur version shows 30 to 40+ knots 850 mb flow across much of the Caribbean.

[xironman]

It almost looks like there is a bit of mid level cyclonic motion in this area.

[tailgater]

RAMSDIS has move it's floater over it since they don't have anything else to watch in the ALT.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Coffee break time, after determining we need more sinker bars on a well that has frequent rod cut tubing, and making a decision on another well to take the risky step of fracture stimulating a zone with a packer set below open perforations, with just 20 feet of shale to prevent sand from coming back in and sticking the treating packer.


I have used a box of NASA make your own satellite flour mix, and lovingly mixed a visible floater for everybody. Dig in, delicious.


I see no spin, and I don't even see a bend in the low clouds whipping East to West, South of the convection.

But we are about 2 weeks from the GFS Phantomcane threatening the Turks or Vieques and The USVI, so lets enjoy the badly sheared disturbances that provide a break in our daily routine.