I apologize in advance if somebody posted this inside a thread and I missed it, but the discussion on the UK Met Office's forecast reminded me that I forgot to post this article when I saw it a couple of weeks back: FSU researchers working to improve hurricane forecasts.
As advertised two or three years back FSU has gotten into the season forecast business. Their model's mean forecast calls for eight tropical storms with four becoming hurricanes.
The COAPS newsletter (second page) gives a little more information. Note that the 2005 forecast was off by more than "one or two storms".
For the research paper types, the paper describing the supporting research, Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Simulations, is freely available.
FSU's hurricane season forecast
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FSU's hurricane season forecast
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