Tropics Offically Flat lined !! (dead)

[Aric Dunn]

ok so I think the ITCZ is the most perfectly straight i have ever seen it. not that it means anything significant just thought it was sort of funny, it looked like a flat line, and since the tropics are dead right figured i would point it out ..

[Aric Dunn]

Quick Hand me the Paddles !!!!! Dont Die on me now !!

[Ed Mahmoud]

ok so I think the ITCZ is the most perfectly straight i have ever seen it. not that it means anything significant just thought it was sort of funny, it looked like a flat line, and since the tropics are dead right figured i would point it out ..

May not be dead in Hawai'i in about 9 days...

[artist]

thought this interesting from the Miami NWS forecast discussion -

ALTHOUGH SINCE CONVECTION HAS
NOT STARTED YET AND IT IS ALREADY MID AFTERNOON, DID LOWER BY 10
PERCENT EVERYWHERE. ANOTHER VERY ODD FEATURE SHOWING UP IS SOME
FORM OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. YOU
CAN BARELY MAKE OUT THIS BOUNDARY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
AS IT PASSED PBI THEIR WIND SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST. AM A LITTLE
PERPLEXED AS TO WHAT IS CAUSING THIS BOUNDARY SINCE IT DOES NOT
APPEAR ANYWHERE ELSE WITH OTHER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, BUT
NONETHELESS IT IS THERE AND IT COULD INTERACT VERY EASILY WITH THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsBySta ... ion#AFDMFL

[wxman57]

I noticed that on today's visible imagery. The Tropical Atlantic has indeed flat-lined:

[jinftl]

I wouldn't give too much significance to the atlantic itcz being mainly clear right now....if development is going to take place in July, look much closer to the coastline....esp the Gulf and off the S.E. Coast.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml#ori

[gatorcane]

I think the on switch is on the way, despite all of the el nino talk...

(just a gut feeling)

[Lifesgud2]

I think the on switch is on the way, despite all of the el nino talk...

(just a gut feeling)

Should be the end of August before we get anything going. Way too much shear, and the occ's are thinning..

[Cyclenall]

May not be dead in Hawai'i in about 9 days...

Exactly.

[HURAKAN]

Maybe we should name every batch of dry air that comes out of Africa!!

[jinftl]

Not totally void of convection...pre-cape verde season look to it.

[Category 5]

[HURAKAN]

Give the season another month, something will surely pop-up.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Give the season another month, something will surely pop-up.

2 of the last 3 Euro runs have dangled a polar feature into the Gulf on the West side of Florida around Day 9 or 10, and the water off Florida is warm.


But I still think this board will be abuzz about a rare Hawai'i hurricane threat. Maybe.

[Macrocane]

I have noticed that every day there are more and more comparisons to 2004 season, but conditions are different this time, yes there will be a weak to moderate El Niño and yes it has been a slow start but that doesn't mean that 2004 is an analog year though mother nature gives us surprises

[wxman57]

I have noticed that every day there are more and more comparisons to 2004 season, but conditions are different this time, yes there will be a weak to moderate El Niño and yes it has been a slow start but that doesn't mean that 2004 is an analog year though mother nature gives us surprises

That's correct. SSTs in the MDR were much warmer in 2004. And the ECMWF is predicting the Bermuda High to be quite strong in August/September, nearly as strong as 1983. So shear in the deep tropics south of 20-25N will be more of a factor than in 2004.

[OpieStorm]

It's July and we haven't had 3 hurricanes yet! Face it this season is over guys.

[Gustywind]

It's July and we haven't had 3 hurricanes yet! Face it this season is over guys.

Never say that, Mother Nature has always surprises in store!

[jinftl]

Amen...it's a funny hobby that has brought us all here...the fascination with tropical weather undoubtedly requires the formation of tropical weather for it to be nurtured!!!  Wishing for a quiet season would be like buying season tickets for your favorite team but hoping they don't have any exciting, down-to-the-wire plays in any game! 

Mother Nature is calling the shots.  As always.  She is well aware of the time of year and the  factors that will either promote or inhibit development.  There is a vast ocean out there...weather is variable...shear rises and falls, upper winds lend a hand or kick development in the stomach from one day to the next.  All it takes is one area of instability that happens to position itself in such a way...perhaps in the water that is ready to boil in places like the gulf stream between the bahamas and miami, or the florida keys, or the Hottub of Mexico....and all of a sudden there is no containing what could emerge. And, quite honestly, that system may not have gotten the memo or much care that the water off Peru is 1 deg Celsisus above normal if it has positioned itself to 'do it's thing'.

I do believe looking at the data to get an objective sense of how the season will be is nothing short of performing science.  And from that comes learning and the ability to forecast.  But even the best forecast....the best prediction...is a guideline.  The season is not dead.  The atmosphere has not aligned to be unable to produce another depression between now and November.  That's nonsense.  Every season is unique....but what they all have in common is that Mother Nature is calling the shots and she will do what comes natural. Anyone of us who thinks we've got this season all figured out is over-simplifying the atmosphere and over-estimating their knowledge. Nature is both fascinating...and quite often, humbling.

It's July and we haven't had 3 hurricanes yet! Face it this season is over guys.

Never say that, Mother Nature has always surprises in store!

[OpieStorm]

  Wishing for a quiet season would be like buying season tickets for your favorite team but hoping they don't have any exciting, down-to-the-wire plays in any game! 

Wow, I love that. Can we sticky this to the top of the page or something?