A Pacific Parade?

[clfenwi]

The one storm at a time progress in the Pacific may near an end:

.

Complete loop

UKMET is also advertising another storm coming soon:

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 11.2N 110.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 13.07.2009 11.2N 110.3W WEAK
00UTC 14.07.2009 10.9N 113.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.07.2009 11.5N 115.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.07.2009 12.3N 117.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.07.2009 12.8N 119.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.07.2009 12.9N 121.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.07.2009 13.3N 124.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.07.2009 14.2N 127.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.07.2009 13.9N 131.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

That area is currently a "Code Yellow" in the TWO and is starting to bulls-eye in the Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability product.

[theavocado]

I will say that NOGAPS has been VERY aggressive this year. I've seen a lot of false positives in the West Pac and North Indian Oceans. ECMWF and GFS have been much better at detection.

That said, it is an impressive Rossby wave train. Lets hope an aspiring journalist doesn't see that and blame it on global warming or DoD weather controlling experiments.

[Cyclenall]

The NOGAPS has been showing that for days now. I haven't seen it act like that in a long time. It's still not to the extent the Epac and Cpac was last year I think in August when a true train formed of 6-8 "systems" .

[Macrocane]

I will say that NOGAPS has been VERY aggressive this year. I've seen a lot of false positives in the West Pac and North Indian Oceans. ECMWF and GFS have been much better at detection.

That said, it is an impressive Rossby wave train. Lets hope an aspiring journalist doesn't see that and blame it on global warming or DoD weather controlling experiments.

In my opinion NOGAPS has been doing a much better job than GFS this season, it predicted well the formation of Andres, Blanca and Carlos and it has been good forecasting the intensity too. GFS has given us a lot of phantom systems in the Atlantic and has underestimated the systems in the Pacific, it has had weak initializations on the runs and has showed the systems as waves when they already hada been TS or even hurricanes. Though I agree that ECMWF has been better than NOGAPS.

[cycloneye]

054
ABPZ20 KNHC 112340
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT JUL 11 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
CARLOS...CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS CENTERED ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Cyclenall]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 120530
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT JUL 11 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
CARLOS...CENTERED ABOUT 1045 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

Why was it upgraded to medium chance when it looks much worse than before?

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN JUL 12 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
CARLOS...LOCATED ABOUT 1085 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TO THE
WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[clfenwi]

Interesting comment theavocado, NOGAPS is not a model I would think of when considering models known for producing boguscanes. I have not carefully followed the eastern hemisphere basins this season, however.

As for our potential next tropical cyclone, it did not appear in today's 12Z UKMET output, but the 22Z TWD did have this to say:

A 1009 MB LOW PRES HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE
PREVIOUSLY LOCATED ALONG 105W/106W. AT 1800 UTC...THE LOW CENTER
IS NEAR 11N104W PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION THAT COVERS FROM 06N TO 14N BETWEEN
100W AND 110W. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR THIS LOW TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT
MOVES WNW.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN JUL 12 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM CARLOS...LOCATED ABOUT 1175 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

Code Red

543
ABPZ20 KNHC 131139
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUL 13 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM CARLOS...LOCATED ABOUT 1285 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE LOW MOVES WEST OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER
THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

Is invest 96E.Go to active storms forum to continue the discussions and to get all the information about the new invest.The thread is locked.

Link to invest 96E thread:

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=105836&hilit=&p=1892121#p1892121