Keeping an eye on the GOM

[PTrackerLA]

Although there's not much out there now, we should pay attention to any large thunderstorm complexes that meander in the northern GOM through this week. The trough will be dipping down into the area and wind shear looks somewhat favorable. Our local met thinks we should keep an eye on this area as we have seen July storms form like this in the past.

Current visible loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[srainhoutx]

Certainly not out of the question at some point. I have always paid close attention to troughs and boundries that hang in out in the N GOM this time of year. Never forget Alicia 1983 formed along just such a boundry from a mesoscale that moved offshore.

[Flyinman]

Yep, ole Alicia. I did notice our rain chances are pretty decent already for next week so maybe this will at least this cluster will at least track across the Gulf to give us some rain..Nothing severe, just rain please.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Although there's not much out there now, we should pay attention to any large thunderstorm complexes that meander in the northern GOM through this week. The trough will be dipping down into the area and wind shear looks somewhat favorable. Our local met thinks we should keep an eye on this area as we have seen July storms form like this in the past.

Current visible loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

Are you talking Perillo? He correctly called Danny the day the big thunderstorm complex moved down through Lafayette.


Oh, what a lightning storm that was.

JB's call is for possible in close development the other side of Florida, interaction between a cut off low (JB language- "trough split) and a tropical wave. The trough, still over the Eastern US, probably keeps the Gulf in the clear, if anything even develops.
GFS next week does show a positively tilted trough being pinched between the Death Ridge and the Atlantic high at 500 mb, with a smiliar alignment of the 250 mb ridge providing screaming SW winds over Florida, which would put the Eastern Bahamas, under an induced weak anticyclone, and I imagine if anyting forms, the screaming 250 mb jet would provide a nice polar outflow channel.


The GFS forecast would seem to imply unfavorable shear in the GOMEX for development.


I kind of doubt anything in the near future, but the Gulf seems plenty warm enough, if any system can ever get/develop there to take advantage. There is a small area of storms in the Gulf just offshore Venice, but low level cloud motion looks almost anticyclonic, and while CIMCC shear looks favorable, there is no surface convergence at all and no appreciable upper divergence.

[ROCK]

In the near term the GOM should remain fairly quiet but I would bet my last dollar that we will have a system or 2 in the GOM. The GOM is hotter now than at any time in 2005. Look at the potential. If anything gets going I suspect a rapid intensification. Oh and ED, I believe the GFS was predicting strong westerlies in the days up to Ike entering the GOM.....

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[Ed Mahmoud]

In the near term the GOM should remain fairly quiet but I would bet my last dollar that we will have a system or 2 in the GOM. The GOM is hotter now than at any time in 2005. Look at the potential. If anything gets going I suspect a rapid intensification. Oh and ED, I believe the GFS was predicting strong westerlies in the days up to Ike entering the GOM.....

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

If anything ever gets into the Gulf, it is plenty warm. But the Caribbean has stronger than usual low level Easterlies.

Every few decades an Alicia type storm forms on a decaying frontal trough, so I guess anything is possible, but when I was a regular at Dr. Master's forum at Wunderground, year after year "Oooh, the Gulf is so hot, something must be about to happen", then nothing happened, fronts started coming through the end of September, and by late October the Gulf North of 25ºN was below 26ºC.


So a definite maybe, but I wouldn't bet large sums of money.

[Ed Mahmoud]

High pressure in the Gulf, a few showers off Louisiana, no sign of anything surface with WEst and West-Southwest winds. 500 mb feature off Louisiana analyzed on both GFS and NAM.

GFS somewhat more pessimistic, but NAM has happy 84 hour rainfall totals...

[Nimbus]

Only thing I see out in the gulf is the persistent afternoon shower pattern that keeps popping up south of Louisiana.

[Ptarmigan]

In the near term the GOM should remain fairly quiet but I would bet my last dollar that we will have a system or 2 in the GOM. The GOM is hotter now than at any time in 2005. Look at the potential. If anything gets going I suspect a rapid intensification. Oh and ED, I believe the GFS was predicting strong westerlies in the days up to Ike entering the GOM.....

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

Only thing that is inhibiting any development is that ridge over us. Ironically, it is making it warmer. There is low windshear over the GOM.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1256

[Category 5]

Yeah, we're REALLY reaching for storms now.

[srainhoutx]

One thing I do notice is the moisture surge moving in across the GOM. Troughs and boundries also keep my attention.

http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/sa ... g&itype=wv

[Cyclone1]

ITT: We talk about the gulf until a low forms. ;D

[Dean4Storms]

The CMC does show a TC developing in the SE GOM next week but it is the CMC!

[Stormcenter]

Interesting discussion from the N.O., LA NWS this afternoon.

THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT THE OVERALL DIFFERENCES ARE NOT HUGE. THEY BOTH DEPICT
SOME SORT OF CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING AT THE BASE OF THE STRONG
TROUGH AXIS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS UPPER LEVEL...COLD
CORE...FEATURE WILL SLOWLY PULL TO THE WEST TOWARD TEXAS OVER
TIME. THE MAIN AFFECT OF THIS LOW ON THE REGION...WILL BE RETURN
OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT AT LEAST CHANCE
COVERAGE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS A MORE WARM AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS MOVES IN. IN ADDITION...SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL LIFT SHOULD
KEEP CONVECTION ONGOING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS WELL. BASICALLY...A RETURN TO
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED.

[srainhoutx]

Interesting discussion from the N.O., LA NWS this afternoon.

THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT THE OVERALL DIFFERENCES ARE NOT HUGE. THEY BOTH DEPICT
SOME SORT OF CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING AT THE BASE OF THE STRONG
TROUGH AXIS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS UPPER LEVEL...COLD
CORE...FEATURE WILL SLOWLY PULL TO THE WEST TOWARD TEXAS OVER
TIME. THE MAIN AFFECT OF THIS LOW ON THE REGION...WILL BE RETURN
OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT AT LEAST CHANCE
COVERAGE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS A MORE WARM AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS MOVES IN. IN ADDITION...SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL LIFT SHOULD
KEEP CONVECTION ONGOING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS WELL. BASICALLY...A RETURN TO
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED.

HPC has made mention of this in morning Prelim disco. TUTT feature I suspect.

[Dean4Storms]

Should have a hard time staying cold core if the convection deepens and organizes over the center.

[Ed Mahmoud]

18Z GFS tries to work that cold low to the surface in 4 to 5 days, but seems to move it into Louisiana before anything to freaky happens at the surface.

Darn close to a surface low Day 5.





It would still have an upper low over it, per GFS

[KWT]

Certainly something you need to watch, esp in El Nino years, thats how Gulf systems tend to get going.

[srainhoutx]

I'll post the morning e-mail from Jeff Lindner concerning our discussion for the GOM...

Upper air pattern change is about complete with upper high now centered well to our west and digging upper trough over the central and eastern US.



Area now falls under NNW flow aloft and within the eastern “ring of fire” of the ridge to our west. Energy riding the ridge will be responsible for numerous MCS events as currently approaching SE TX right now from the north. Hard to time short waves will fire off storm complexes every 8-14 hours over OK and N TX with the upper level steering flow driving the events into our area.



Main question this morning is what to do with incoming outflow boundary/old MCS now through CLL. Radar shows numerous thunderstorms developing along this boundary from N of Huntsville to just S of CLL moving SSE at 15mph. Models did not pick up on this outflow nor the MCS currently ongoing just NE of the area. Feel there is little to impede thunderstorms from developing this morning as the outflow boundary sags deeper into the area. Bigger question is how does this affect the expected afternoon/evening convection. Models are very aggressive in developing widespread thunderstorms coming at the area from the NE and sweeping all the way to Matagorda Bay between 300pm and midnight. This is a classic eastern “ring of fire” type event, however I am not sure how current activity may affect the air mass for later today. If things get going on the current incoming outflow boundary then we may not see much this evening.



Little change through early next week as NW to N flow aloft remains in place and ridge remains far to our west allowing several shots at MCS complexes and storms along the seabreeze. Pattern gets even more interesting come the middle of next week as a 850 to 700mb trough attempts to establish over the state with deep tropical moisture in place. Current trough axis placement is to our west keeping us wet…patterns such as this in the middle of summer with weak steering can lead to some very impressive rainfall totals. DGEX also develops a tropical cyclone over the northern Gulf and moves it into TX around the middle of next week…will disregard for now in favor of a more TUTT low solution heading for the coastal bend toward the middle to end of next week.

While we need every drop of rain we can get…we do not need it all at once!

[Flyinman]

Very interesting information to start the morning. So I guess we will see what happens next week but either way it sounds like we may finally be in for some good rain. I remember seeing a post on here a while back taking about how much of Texas would see rain for most of July..Perhaps we are now getting into this cycle.