Tropical wave near 30 degrees west 8 degrees north may pique

[Typhoon_Willie]

the Tropical Prediction Center's interest... Here is a IR Link. System by my reckoning is about 400 to 500 miles ssw of the Cape Verde Islands....

[Sanibel]

Just came into post on that. This one rolled off Africa quickly and is sticking. Looks like next invest.

[wxman57]

As far WSW as it's moving, it may well have a date with South America in a few days. This system has less rotation than previous waves moving off the coast of Africa. Development chances look very low for this low-latitude system embedded in the ITCZ.

[Sanibel]

Never the less it is an African pulse that July is keeping from outright forming. The suggestion is an active ITCZ. Every day now adds favorability. If the conditions suddenly became favorable further west it would probably have the stuff to develop.

[Frank2]

There does seem to be a sudden pattern of fairly strong waves moving into the Atlantic - this seems to be similar to 2006, when it came down to the arrival of El Nino or another active season (El Nino won, fortunately)..

[hurricanetrack]

But this year, the El Nino seems to be waning already if even ever so slightly. SOI has had a remarkable rise in the last 40 days and thus no more strong westerly wind bursts in the Pacific. All the while, east Atlantic SST anoms keep going up- ever so slightly as well but certainly going up.

Late August through early October will be the test, obviously. It could be quite an interesting period by many standards.

[alan1961]

The wave behind 97L looks like its starting to gain a little latitude although still attached to the ITCZ.

[Gustywind]

The wave behind 97L looks like its starting to gain a little latitude although still attached to the ITCZ.

Yeah hope that, because she needs more Coriolis to spin and maybe organizes if the conditions are more conducive...wait and see, whereas we're more concerned by 97L for the moment.

[abajan]

It may be too close to the equator but IMO it's developing! Every time I check the satellite pix, it looks better than before. Stranger things have happened, so we better keep an eye on it.

[Tropics Guy]

That low latitude wave has been rather vigorous ever since it came off the African coast, looks better than 97L right now. If it can gain some more latitude it may have a chance at low-probability development otherwise it will crash into South America.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

TG

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Another view from one of my favorites:

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced

[caribsue]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

Is that thing starting to spin, or have i been looking at this screen for too long.

BTW... Nice link WLD

[vbhoutex]

Doesn't look like a spin to me yet. Tops warming is what I saw in the WV loop.

[Sanibel]

Think we obviously have something here. It shot off Africa quicker than 97L but is hiding its spin. This one has strange persistence over water without any d-mins. Could be the first CV developer this time.

[RL3AO]

The only problem is that little thing called South America.

Watch out French Guiana!

[FireBird]

I'm keeping an eye out for this thing too! The trade winds near Trinidad normally send systems jogging to the NW, thus frequently sparing us. But usually that's when we have a westerly approach. With this blob hanging out to my ESE, I wonder what'll happen. Maybe it's too close to S. America already or maybe it'll start to move NW. I know we still have a little time but as one calypsonian put it - "Are you feeling the feelings? Are you getting the symptoms?"
I think we're seeing the start of our season. Might be small beginnings for now, but finally, I'm getting those anxious/ exhillarating feelings that come with thunderstorms, winds, and rough seas.....

[Sanibel]

No spin and apparently headed for Guiana.

[Ed Mahmoud]

No spin and apparently headed for Guiana.

It could be our next East Pac invest in about a week.

[HUC]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/cgi-bin ... .cgi?vis-e
Have you seen how these three cloud mass are in a line NO- SE??

[Gustywind]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/cgi-bin/latest.cgi?vis-e
Have you seen how these three cloud mass are in a line NO- SE??

Absolutely and...is thing is pulling the ITCZ northward?
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg