Disturbance in the Caribbean?

CaribJam · #1 Postby **CaribJam** » Thu Jul 30, 2009 3:58 pm

There has been increasing cloudiness in the eastern caribbean during the past day/hours. There was a post that indicated that the "1st wave" that we were watching since last week in the atlantic may form a low (courtesy of NAM) in the caribbean in due course. Is this what may be occurring?

#2 Postby **tailgater** » Thu Jul 30, 2009 4:33 pm

I'm no pro, but i'll give ya my 2 cents worth. The wave that is moving into the Central Caribbean doesn't stand much of a chance of organizing because of the low level winds screaming out of the east in the central Caribbean and the farther west it goes the more shear it will encounter. So I pesonally do not give it much of a shot, maybe after the Yucatan.

Macrocane · #3 Postby **Macrocane** » Thu Jul 30, 2009 5:29 pm

Wind shear is high in the caribbean and it won't diminish enough to support development, that is on of the s of El Niño.

#4 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Jul 30, 2009 6:47 pm

What you can't see in that satellite shot is screaming 850mb (5000ft) winds across the central Caribbean. Wind speeds accelerate from 20-25 mph where the wave is now to 40-50 mph at 850mb level just in advance of the wave. These strong winds extend from south of the DR to the Yucatan Peninsula. By tomorrow, the wave enters the high wind speeds and the storms should diminish due to strong low-level divergence.

Derek Ortt · #5 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Jul 30, 2009 7:10 pm

the weave? WXMAN, did great one steal your avatar, lol? (for new members, that is a long time joke on a former troll who wants called something a tropical weave)

in all seriousness, I ran a 12km MM5 on the area for a few days... the winds should not drop off until the end of the week. Thus, forget about this Caribbean disturbance

#6 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Jul 30, 2009 7:44 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:the weave? WXMAN, did great one steal your avatar, lol? (for new members, that is a long time joke on a former troll who wants called something a tropical weave)

in all seriousness, I ran a 12km MM5 on the area for a few days... the winds should not drop off until the end of the week. Thus, forget about this Caribbean disturbance

Shouldn't you be studying, or something? ;-)

Derek Ortt · #7 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Jul 31, 2009 5:14 am

LOL... needed a rest from learning WRF on an IBM machine (it is different from LINUX... not sure why) and making sure the MM5 scripts are running without a bug (I was up debugging for a couple of hours this morning, making sure my scripts would correctly put the GFDL vtx of Lana into the non-GFDL based MM5 runs... looks like success

Gustywind · #8 Postby **Gustywind** » Fri Jul 31, 2009 8:03 am

000
AXNT20 KNHC 311044
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST ABOUT 20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 14N
TO 22N BETWEEN 68W AND 74W.

$$
MT

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