Do NOT focus on if the system is a major hurricane

[Derek Ortt]

I have seen many questions wondering if the system SW of CV will become a major hurricane. I am here to ask people to not ask this type of question for the following reason: It downplays the category 1 and 2 hurricanes!

Last year, we had the 4th most destructive storm in US history, Ike. It was "only" a cat 2 at landfall. We also had Gustav which caused more than 4 billion in damage and it too was "only" a cat 2. Isabel, Georges, and Floyd were also "only" cat 2s at landfall, and each were multi-billion dollar disasters. New evidence suggests that many historical storms that were once thought to be major hurricanes (i.e. Audrey) likely were not.

The point is, any hurricane is dangerous. You can easily experience worse conditions in a cat 1 than you would in a cat 4. It all depends if you get the maximum winds and especially if you are unlucky and get caught in one of the mini-swirls in the eyewall.

To quote Eric Salna, "A hurricane is a hurricane, is a hurricane". Do not treat a hurricane lightly just because it is not "major" hurricane. If you do so, you could end up like those on Galveston during Ike.

Something to keep in mind as we see development of a potentially dangerous system this week-end

[RL3AO]

Great post.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Point taken..

[KWT]

This is very true, esp for the Caribbean. I remember a certain system called Jeanne in 2004 which whilst a category-1 caused huge amount of life loss due to the rains. Also remember just how potent both Wilma and Katrina wre in Florida and both times we probably saw category-1 conditions, maybe at 2 in Wilma?

[CourierPR]

Point well taken. I remember that in '64, Cleo was not a major but it inflicted much damage in South FL. Wilma in 2005 is another example.

[JPmia]

Point taken Derek. Those of us who have been on this site for years know this, but there will be a large amount of folks visiting here that will not.

[cycloneye]

The Caribbean members here commend you on the statement.

[shah8]

Size as much as strength, matters.

Of course, when they are freakin' huge, powerful storms, like Katrina or Wilma, you're just better off praying.

Morakot is a pretty good illustration of why we shouldn't focus on wind speed.

[shah8]

That being said, the most concerning thing about this storm is that it looks like it will actually be a large rainmaking type storm that can kill many people in hilly areas, and the Carribean is full of some reasonably tall places.

[Ptarmigan]

Well said Derek! Ike was a scary moment for me.

[Brent]

This is a great post... you don't even need a hurricane for it to be a life-threatening storm. Water kills far more than wind.

[Lurker]

Wow great post Derek! Many newcomers here in South Florida need to heed that advice.

[Derek Ortt]

how about we sticky this so that it can serve as a reminder for this storm, and for future ones

I am so passionate about this that nwhhc does not use the words "major hurricane" any more. Instead, they are merely referred to by their categories

[knotimpaired]

That being said, the most concerning thing about this storm is that it looks like it will actually be a large rainmaking type storm that can kill many people in hilly areas, and the Carribean is full of some reasonably tall places.

I would rather have rain than wind. We survived 33" on Vieques with Jeanne in a day and a half.

We have a Weatherhawk system that took care of the measuring.

[southerngale]

Excellent post, Derek.

[Macrocane]

Very intelligent post Mr. Derek, not only for people in US but people on the Caribbean and Central America. Mitch was not a major hurricane when it made landfall, Stan was a "weak" cat 1, Noel was a TS when it made landfall on Hispaniola. Certainly "minor" hurricanes can do major destruction.

[Annie Oakley]

Well said Derek! Lots of common sense and knowledge behind this very important post. Thanks!

[KWT]

Also living in the UK we do get sometimes quite big wind events which can have gusts upto 75-85mph generally. A lot of people won't really know just how powerful those winds can be. I've seen people here think the winds were gusting to about 70mph when infact they were only around 45, so its very easy to underestimate the strength of the wind as well.

[Sihara]

I have seen many questions wondering if the system SW of CV will become a major hurricane. I am here to ask people to not ask this type of question for the following reason: It downplays the category 1 and 2 hurricanes!

Thank you for this excellent post. I think the point is further underscored by Allison in TX - "only" a tropical storm but what a disaster that was. Bad enough to get her name retired.

Categories are sustained windspeeds, only one measure of the storm - they have nothing to do with amount of rain & flooding, surge, tornados spawned, saturation of the ground prior to landfall, elevation of the area at landfall, all of which can affect the severity of the conditions.

New evidence suggests that many historical storms that were once thought to be major hurricanes (i.e. Audrey) likely were not.

just a side note: the hurricane that hit the Tampa Bay area (Tarpon actually) back in the 20's was said to be a major storm. But I've heard that old-timers disagree with the assessment.

[Cryomaniac]

Also living in the UK we do get sometimes quite big wind events which can have gusts upto 75-85mph generally. A lot of people won't really know just how powerful those winds can be. I've seen people here think the winds were gusting to about 70mph when infact they were only around 45, so its very easy to underestimate the strength of the wind as well.

Agreed, 45mph gusts are pretty strong, 70mph gusts make a MESS. I remember a couple of years ago when we had that big windstorm, the winds were maybe 40 sustained, 65-70 gusts and that was bad enough. I can't imagine being in a 75mph hurricane.