NE Gulf

[Dean4Storms]

Noticed a flare up of convection along the trough this morning in the NE GOM helped along by the ULL to its west providing shear. Still, with a weak surface reflection there and convection firing this needs to be eyeballed!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[Dean4Storms]

Eglin Radar.......

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... x&loop=yes

[fwbbreeze]

doh...shear is a bit rough!

[N2Storms]

[quote="fwbbreeze"]doh...shear is a bit rough!
[img]http://img523.imageshack.us/img523/228/wg8shr.gif[/img][/quote]


lol...it is pretty formiddable right now...as with most seasons, the most significant threat from TCs we face will be those that are "home grown"... IMO, we'll see at least 2 more storms threaten the GOMers this season...with the way the troughing has set up it appears that the GOMEX is going to be safe from the Cape Verde storms as we reach the apex of the season. With so many fronts pushing down and stalling along the GOM it is going to be just a matter of time before something forms IMHO...the N.O. NWS seems to think that there is a decent chance of a closed low forming in the NW GOM and if it did, it would work it's way ew'd.

[HouTXmetro]

doh...shear is a bit rough!

lol...it is pretty formiddable right now...as with most seasons, the most significant threat from TCs we face will be those that are "home grown"... IMO, we'll see at least 2 more storms threaten the GOMers this season...with the way the troughing has set up it appears that the GOMEX is going to be safe from the Cape Verde storms as we reach the apex of the season. With so many fronts pushing down and stalling along the GOM it is going to be just a matter of time before something forms IMHO...the N.O. NWS seems to think that there is a decent chance of a closed low forming in the NW GOM and if it did, it would work it's way ew'd.

Do you mean NE Gulf? I don't see anything in the NW Gulf.

[N2Storms]

[quote="HouTXmetro"][quote="N2Storms"][quote="fwbbreeze"]doh...shear is a bit rough!
[img]http://img523.imageshack.us/img523/228/wg8shr.gif[/img][/quote]


lol...it is pretty formiddable right now...as with most seasons, the most significant threat from TCs we face will be those that are "home grown"... IMO, we'll see at least 2 more storms threaten the GOMers this season...with the way the troughing has set up it appears that the GOMEX is going to be safe from the Cape Verde storms as we reach the apex of the season. With so many fronts pushing down and stalling along the GOM it is going to be just a matter of time before something forms IMHO...the N.O. NWS seems to think that there is a decent chance of a closed low forming in the NW GOM and if it did, it would work it's way ew'd.[/quote]


Do you mean NE Gulf? I don't see anything in the NW Gulf.[/quote]




NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
414 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2009

.SHORT TERM...
A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK AROUND 5500-6000 FT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND HAMPERED OUTGOING LONG WAVE RADIATION FOR A FEW
HOURS. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FALLING AS READILY AS THIS
TIME MONDAY MORNING. UNLESS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL IN THE NEXT
2 HOURS...MOST RECORDS WILL BE SAFE AS DEWPOINTS HAVE GENERALLY
INCREASED OVER THE REGION SINCE LAST EVENING. UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW
PRESSURE CIRCULATION QUITE EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR
COLUMBUS MS AND MOVING SSW INTO ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS
ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. CONVECTION INITIATING AROUND
GALVESTON BAY THIS MORNING DUE TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ENHANCED LIFT FROM UPPER LEVEL OMEGA FROM APPROACHING CUT-OFF LOW.
THERE IS A GENERAL AND BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD OVER
THE WEST GULF AND THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW MAY CREATE A
DYNAMIC SITUATION FOR CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NORTHWEST GULF IF THE
UPPER LOW DROPS FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE. THIS
WAS A SIMILAR SITUATION FOR THE FORMATION OF HURRICANE JUAN IN OCT
1985. THE GFS IS THE CLOSEST VERIFIABLE SOLUTION COMPARED TO
SATELLITE LOOP TRENDS BUT ALL CONVENTIONAL MODELS DO DROP THE CUT
OFF LOW CLOSE TO THE LA COAST BEFORE LIFTING NE IN TIME. MOISTURE
IN THE LOWER GULF IS RATHER RICH AND COULD BECOME EASILY INVOLVED
AND DRAWN NORTHWARD IF THE UPPER LOW TAPS INTO THIS SOURCE. MODELS
DO NOT INDICATE THAT TO BE THE CASE BUT ONE MAY HAVE TO BE DUBIOUS
OF ANY DISCONNECT. BACK HOME...WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES NAMELY IN INDICATING A SLOW WARMING
TREND AND A SLOW AND BELOW NORMAL RECOVERY OF RAIN CHANCES FOR
LATE AUGUST UNTIL AND UNLESS THE GULF TROPICS PROVIDE A CONTRARY
SITUATION TO ONE CURRENTLY INDICATED.

[Dean4Storms]

No doubt the shear is high, but it is forecasted to weaken as the UL ridge sinks southward and weakens.

[Sanibel]

No signs of curling up on radar.

[southerngale]

doh...shear is a bit rough!
http://img523.imageshack.us/img523/228/wg8shr.gif

lol...it is pretty formiddable right now...as with most seasons, the most significant threat from TCs we face will be those that are "home grown"... IMO, we'll see at least 2 more storms threaten the GOMers this season...with the way the troughing has set up it appears that the GOMEX is going to be safe from the Cape Verde storms as we reach the apex of the season. With so many fronts pushing down and stalling along the GOM it is going to be just a matter of time before something forms IMHO...the N.O. NWS seems to think that there is a decent chance of a closed low forming in the NW GOM and if it did, it would work it's way ew'd.

Of course it would. We can't buy a bucket of rain in Texas these days.

[Wx_Warrior]

Speak for yourself. We got hammered today in downtown beaumont with warnings all over the place.

Just in time for high school football to start

[southerngale]

Speak for yourself. We got hammered today in downtown beaumont with warnings all over the place.

Just in time for high school football to start

I am speaking for myself... and the many others who need rain. A bunch of us keep getting missed by the small showers that pop up occasionally. I know there were warnings... I posted about them in USA Weather. They were all well north of Beaumont though, in and near Jasper. There were some isolated storms around here (I heard the thunder)... fortunate for the few who got them.

We need RAIN, steady rain that sticks around for a while and covers a large area, here and to our west and southwest. Rain that would benefit many who are suffering from the drought.

[attallaman]

doh...shear is a bit rough!
http://img523.imageshack.us/img523/228/wg8shr.gif

lol...it is pretty formiddable right now...as with most seasons, the most significant threat from TCs we face will be those that are "home grown"... IMO, we'll see at least 2 more storms threaten the GOMers this season...with the way the troughing has set up it appears that the GOMEX is going to be safe from the Cape Verde storms as we reach the apex of the season. With so many fronts pushing down and stalling along the GOM it is going to be just a matter of time before something forms IMHO...the N.O. NWS seems to think that there is a decent chance of a closed low forming in the NW GOM and if it did, it would work it's way ew'd.

Of course it would. We can't buy a bucket of rain in Texas these days.

It's raining good here this morning, how many buckets would you like to buy?

[lostsole]

We are getting hit by some nasty storms here in Pensacola coming off the gulf, and when they come off the gulf this time of year it usually tropical in nature, so i am wondering now if that is a spin i see in the NE gulf? May be ULL, but something is going on. I can feel it in the air.

[southerngale]

Of course it would. We can't buy a bucket of rain in Texas these days.

It's raining good here this morning, how many buckets would you like to buy?

If I can buy as many as I'd like, how about enough to end the drought?

I hope they're cheap!

[attallaman]

Of course it would. We can't buy a bucket of rain in Texas these days.

It's raining good here this morning, how many buckets would you like to buy?

If I can buy as many as I'd like, how about enough to end the drought?

I hope they're cheap!

Cheaper by the dozen as they say. Cool graphics by the way. That map looks like Austin is in the drought zone. I have a relative who has a summer house on Horseshoe Bay, I think it's called Horseshoe Bay. Has that area been affected by the drought?

[vbhoutex]

Yes, they are on the Northwest edge of the Exceptional drought area. If they live right on the water they might not be able to use their dock or boat if they have one.

[attallaman]

Yes, they are on the Northwest edge of the Exceptional drought area. If they live right on the water they might not be able to use their dock or boat if they have one.

Their house is right on the water and they do have a boat and a boat house. Their primary residence is in Houston, the house on the water is a summer getaway and they have another residence on Lake Livingston(?).

[vbhoutex]

Yes, they are on the Northwest edge of the Exceptional drought area. If they live right on the water they might not be able to use their dock or boat if they have one.

Their house is right on the water and they do have a boat and a boat house. Their primary residence is in Houston, the house on the water is a summer getaway and they have another residence on Lake Livingston(?).

They are NW of Austin at the Horseshoe Bay house and N of Houston with the Lake Livingston house. We have relatives with a home on Lake Livingston also. But due to their advanced age and health we don't go up there since they are unable to entertain. Out of curiosity, do you know what area of Houston they live in?

[attallaman]

Yes, they are on the Northwest edge of the Exceptional drought area. If they live right on the water they might not be able to use their dock or boat if they have one.

Their house is right on the water and they do have a boat and a boat house. Their primary residence is in Houston, the house on the water is a summer getaway and they have another residence on Lake Livingston(?).

They are NW of Austin at the Horseshoe Bay house and N of Houston with the Lake Livingston house. We have relatives with a home on Lake Livingston also. But due to their advanced age and health we don't go up there since they are unable to entertain. Out of curiosity, do you know what area of Houston they live in?

When I receive calls from them my CID says Cypress, Texas, area code 281.

[vbhoutex]

Then I was out near their house today. My son and his wife live in Cypress also which is a Northwestern suburb of Houston. I guess we better let this go back to the NE Gulf now.