EAST COAST DEVELOPMENT

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taurus10
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EAST COAST DEVELOPMENT

#1 Postby taurus10 » Sat Sep 05, 2009 1:25 pm

looked at the latest hwrf gfdl computer runs looks like a significant storm development early to midweek on east coast does anyone have thoughts about this it looks interesting
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Re: EAST COAST DEVELOPMENT MIDDLE OF WEEK

#2 Postby BigA » Sat Sep 05, 2009 2:52 pm

I checked said models, and didn´t see anything. Are they from the 12Z run?
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Re: EAST COAST DEVELOPMENT MIDDLE OF WEEK

#3 Postby george_r_1961 » Sat Sep 05, 2009 8:36 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


We have a decaying frontal boundary off the coast. Look about 250 miles or so south of Hatteras and theres an area of convection there.

Theres some upper divergence over this(weak high). Shear is in the order of about 10 knots and theres a high getting established over New England.

This is nothing to get too excited about but this is close to the coast and conditions could favor subtropical/hybrid development.
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#4 Postby hurricanetrack » Sat Sep 05, 2009 11:07 pm

I was about to ask that about the older GFDL and HWRF "we are addicted to Erika" runs. They sure did suggest a real bleep buster but I think that we will be looking until it snows....which could be quite a bit according to some sources....but that is off topic.
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Re: EAST COAST DEVELOPMENT MIDDLE OF WEEK

#5 Postby xironman » Sun Sep 06, 2009 7:14 am

You can always trust the CMC to give you something Image

Very time sensitive, mid level twist off SC, http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=LTX&product=NCR&overlay=11111111&loop=yes I don't know how to save off long range loops as gif, and the weather underground only has short range.
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Re: EAST COAST DEVELOPMENT MIDDLE OF WEEK

#6 Postby xironman » Sun Sep 06, 2009 7:37 am

The Euro doesn't show anything until Friday

Image
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Off SC/NC coast.

#7 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 06, 2009 9:51 am

Was watching the tale end of this front the last couple days and late last night and now this morning we have a low off the SC coast.
latest obs in the area and satellite show that we have a closed low and convection is becoming more concentrated this morning near the center. about 31.4N 78.9W. pressures are pretty high but are slowly falling and there are winds gusting to about 35mph this morning as well.
Development of this system could occur as for the moment it is relatively stationary and should be for the next 12 to 24 hours before a slow NE to NNE drift should occur after which if its still over water a ridge is expected to build in and could keep the system around a little longer.

upper winds seem favorable as right now its sitting in a upper ridge, the real strong winds are a little farther north that it is right now.

so its a area to watch.

Image
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Re: Off SC/NC coast.

#8 Postby tallywx » Sun Sep 06, 2009 10:22 am

This thread should be getting a lot more play. Homebrew is gonna be where it's at for this season. and Gulf Stream/NC/SC homebrew rapid spin-up is absolute classic stuff.
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Re: Off SC/NC coast.

#9 Postby BigA » Sun Sep 06, 2009 10:36 am

There is indication of two spins on radar, with the one at the surface seeming to correspond to the surface low as indicated by quickscat. Looks to be over the Gulf Stream, too, and in a favorable (albeit narrow) area of upper level winds.
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Re: Off SC/NC coast.

#10 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 06, 2009 10:48 am

There is a thread already for the east coast area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=106501&p=1921048#p1921048
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Re: EAST COAST DEVELOPMENT MIDDLE OF WEEK

#11 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 06, 2009 11:41 am

I merged Arics thread with this one to have only one thread to discuss the EC area.
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Re: EAST COAST DEVELOPMENT MIDDLE OF WEEK

#12 Postby xironman » Sun Sep 06, 2009 12:01 pm

There is that radar shot, looking at the mid level spin

Image
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Re: EAST COAST DEVELOPMENT MIDDLE OF WEEK

#13 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 06, 2009 12:39 pm

cycloneye wrote:I merged Arics thread with this one to have only one thread to discuss the EC area.



why does it say middle of week.. thats why i started a different one.. ??
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Re: EAST COAST DEVELOPMENT MIDDLE OF WEEK

#14 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 06, 2009 12:41 pm

xironman wrote:There is that radar shot, looking at the mid level spin

Image


there is a surface circ to the sw of that area..
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Re: EAST COAST DEVELOPMENT MIDDLE OF WEEK

#15 Postby Stormavoider » Sun Sep 06, 2009 12:43 pm

By the middle of the week this feature will be gone from the EC.
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Re: EAST COAST DEVELOPMENT MIDDLE OF WEEK

#16 Postby vbhoutex » Sun Sep 06, 2009 12:55 pm

This is NHC's take on it:

ABNT20 KNHC 061745
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF
SOUTH CAROLINA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS....
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Re: EAST COAST DEVELOPMENT

#17 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 06, 2009 12:59 pm

Edited title to take out Middle of next week portion=cycloneye
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Re: EAST COAST DEVELOPMENT

#18 Postby xironman » Sun Sep 06, 2009 2:25 pm

Stormavoider wrote:By the middle of the week this feature will be gone from the EC.

The steering currents are really weak right now, so it could hang around longer than you might think. From LWX this morning
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
ONE THING THAT CAUGHT MY EYE IS THE VORTEX WELL E OF GA/SC...AND
HOW MODELS HANDLE IT IN THE COMING DAYS. UPR WIND FIELD IN THE WRN
ATLC IS WEAK...AND THAT LOW LOOKS TO SLOWLY MEANDER CLOSER TO THE
VA CST BY TUE/WED. AT SAME TIME SFC HIGH OVR NEW ENGLAND MIGRATES
TO A POSN WELL E OF ME...SO IT APPEARS AN ERLY FETCH WL BE
SETTING UP IN MID ATLC. SO HV INCRSD THE CLD CVR FOR MUCH OF THE
WK AHD...AND IT MAY TURN OUT THAT LATER SHIFTS HV TO INCRS IT UP
TOWARD OVC FOR MON NGT-WED.
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Re: EAST COAST DEVELOPMENT

#19 Postby xironman » Sun Sep 06, 2009 4:10 pm

12Z Euro now has something on Wednesday

Image

And our friend the Canadian can still be counted on

Image
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#20 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 06, 2009 5:27 pm

Doesn't look all that bad - wouldn't be surprised to see 97L on this soon. If it turns eastward with the flow, it will enter an area of very low shear and could develop, even though it is away from the Gulf Stream.
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