North of Bahamas

[Aric Dunn]

well I figured its about time this got started since for the last many days all the models try to develop something in the general region of the SE gulf or the western bahamas/ florida straights area. This development has been pushed back every run until recently. presently we have a old trough in the area a weak wave approaching. upper winds are strong now but are forecast to become somewhat more favorable. so not much there today but some convection starting to fire so will see what becomes of it today as the models start putting it together through the day and into tomorrow.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rgb.html

[Aric Dunn]

Actually there is a bit of low level turning seen in the area circled its weak now but I would bet on it being the area of concern. it just so happens to the exact area the NAM starts developing it.

NAM
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_m.shtml

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rgb.html

[ronjon]

yeah Aric been watching the NAM over the last couple of days want to spin something up from the surface trough. Upper level winds are howling though so unless they relax I'm not sure we'll see anything develop - I do see some weak cyclonic turning near the western tip of Cuba - no heavy concentrated convection yet. Something to watch.

[ronjon]

Upper level winds are forecast to slacken with an upper level high building over the central GOM - have to watch this scenario over the next few days.

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/TropicalWinds48.aspx

[StormTracker]

Local news stations(Miami)tagged this area last night suggesting that 2day and 2morrow we would most likely be inundated with lots of precip!!! Got some good rain in the early morning hours, but none since sunrise! Looks like those howling upper level winds must have kicked up sometime around 2-3 am therefore keeping the rain offshore at this time...

http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=3194,21328260,3194_21169358:3194_21178594:3194_21206144:3194_21206156&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL

[jpigott]

Local news stations(Miami)tagged this area last night suggesting that 2day and 2morrow we would most likely be inundated with lots of precip!!! Got some good rain in the early morning hours, but none since sunrise! Looks like those howling upper level winds must have kicked up sometime around 2-3 am therefore keeping the rain offshore at this time...

http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=3194,21328260,3194_21169358:3194_21178594:3194_21206144:3194_21206156&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL

local weather station up here in Northern Palm Beach County last night also tagged this as an area to watch for development

[deltadog03]

euro had something in this area for much of its run. Its pretty weak tho.

[weatherwindow]

yeah Aric been watching the NAM over the last couple of days want to spin something up from the surface trough. Upper level winds are howling though so unless they relax I'm not sure we'll see anything develop - I do see some weak cyclonic turning near the western tip of Cuba - no heavy concentrated convection yet. Something to watch.

agreed....rich
FORECAST DOES GET DIFFICULT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BECAUSE THE MODELS
DO NOT AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROUGH INTO A LOW IN THE
GULF. THE GFS...UKMET AND ECMWF DEVELOP A LOW IN THE WESTERN
GULF...WHILE THE NAM DEVELOPS A DOUBLE LOW IN THE WESTERN/EASTERN
GULF. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW WILL DICTATE THE STEERING
FLOW...nws/eyw afd

[BigA]

18Z NAM and GFS show a decent duration of light wind shear (perhaps even an anticyclone) over the SE gulf starting at around 42 hours. It remains to be seen whether there will be a system to take advantage of these favorable conditions.

[ronjon]

Heavy convection forming on the tail end of the trough from the Bahamas to south of Cuba this morning. Looks like shear has relaxed in the western Cuba area. No sign of rotation but this area needs to be watched.

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/satrad.regional.html

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Sanibel]

Our NOAA weather channel said a weak Low could move into the SE Gulf:

[floridasun78]

who noaa weather channel?

[HouTXmetro]

Lots of shear but the GOM is HOTT

[HURAKAN]

12z CMC develops a low pressure over the NW Bahamas that then races to the NE.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Sanibel]

CMC is going nuts this year. It develops a strong hurricane out of that remnant trough.


NOAA weather channel is the radar NOAA weather radio channel on cable TV.

[tailgater]

This needs to be watched. Just north of Cuba's west coast
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... main.php?&

[BigA]

This needs to be watched. Just north of Cuba's west coast
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... main.php?&

Agreed. Wisconsin maps show solid 850 mb vorticity in the region, and the models seem to develop an upper level anticyclone, or at least favorable winds aloft in the region during the next couple of days. Not to mention that SSTs and heat potential are smoking.

[attallaman]

This needs to be watched. Just north of Cuba's west coast
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... main.php?&

Agreed. Wisconsin maps show solid 850 mb vorticity in the region, and the models seem to develop an upper level anticyclone, or at least favorable winds aloft in the region during the next couple of days. Not to mention that SSTs and heat potential are smoking.

Is this the area of interest Accuweather was talking about yesterday afternoon in their tropical update that might develop then shoot off to the NE or is this a different area to watch for possible GOM development?

[ronjon]

Looks like broad low pressure is forming in the SE GOM about 150 miles SW of Tampa.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=TBW&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes