Tropical Wave west of Cape Verde Islands

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HURAKAN
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Tropical Wave west of Cape Verde Islands

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 11, 2009 5:44 am

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Re: Impressive tropical wave near Africa

#2 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 11, 2009 5:46 am

It has been introduced at the 06z surface analysis with a 1010 mb low.

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#3 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 11, 2009 6:06 am

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Looking good
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#4 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 11, 2009 6:12 am

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2009

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A 1010
MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N. FIRST VISIBLE METEOSAT-9
SATELLITE IMAGES CONFIRM THAT THE WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE W
AFRICA COAST AS THE DAKAR SENEGAL UPPER AIR TIME SECTION
ANALYSES INDICATED WITH A STRONG SURFACE TO 600 MB ANOMALOUS
WIND SIGNATURE. A 11/0650 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS ALSO CONFIRMS A
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 18W-22W.

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#5 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 11, 2009 6:48 am

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Latest
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#6 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 11, 2009 6:53 am

613
ABNT20 KNHC 111152
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
FRED...LOCATED ABOUT 745 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE DELAWARE
COAST IS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. DEVELOPMENT
INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE
REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES
IN THE REGION AND HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT01 KWBC.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ARE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GULF
COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TO LOUISIANA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS
MOVED OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA...AND IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15
MPH. THIS SYSTEM SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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#7 Postby leanne_uk » Fri Sep 11, 2009 7:53 am

liking the look of this, will be interesting to see what will become of it. Could be a very interesting few days :)
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#8 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 11, 2009 7:56 am

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Incredible that Fred is so close!
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Re:

#9 Postby breeze » Fri Sep 11, 2009 8:55 am

HURAKAN wrote:

Incredible that Fred is so close!



Old Fred better get movin' or the new kid will run him over! :lol:
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Re: Re:

#10 Postby leanne_uk » Fri Sep 11, 2009 9:18 am

breeze wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:

Incredible that Fred is so close!




Old Fred better get movin' or the new kid
will run him over! :lol:


Silly question .... I know its silly but what are the chances of that happening. Slim to none or none? :)
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Re: Impressive tropical wave near Africa

#11 Postby breeze » Fri Sep 11, 2009 9:36 am

Probably slim, leanne (<-----opinion of an amateur)... :wink:
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Re: Impressive tropical wave near Africa

#12 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 11, 2009 11:06 am

Elsewhere in the tropics
A large tropical wave emerged from the coast of Africa last night and has a well-organized surface circulation, as seen on this morning's QuikSCAT pass. The wave as yet does not have much in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it, and wind shear is relatively high, about 20 knots. By Sunday, the shear will drop below 20 knots, and the wave may begin to develop. The GFS model predicts this will be a tropical depression by early next week.


Jeff Masters
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Re: Impressive tropical wave near Africa

#13 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 11, 2009 12:42 pm

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN
30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

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#14 Postby leanne_uk » Fri Sep 11, 2009 12:48 pm

ok so low chance if any like i expected but it looks like if we give this system a few days it could be more than interesting to watch develop :)

I am away camping till tuesday making the most of the wonderful weather the uk is offering me so will have to limit my net access on the phone :(

Hope it is worth every second of my time.... A bit like fred has been all week :)
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#15 Postby Gustywind » Fri Sep 11, 2009 1:24 pm

000
AXNT20 KNHC 111731
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A 1010
MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS CONFIRMED THE LOCATION OF
THE LOW CIRCULATION.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 20W-22W.

$$
WALTON
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Re: Impressive tropical wave near Africa

#16 Postby abajan » Fri Sep 11, 2009 3:18 pm

Being so close to Fred, I fully expect this to be a fish as well but am prepared to eat crow if it isn’t.
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Re: Impressive tropical wave near Africa

#17 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 11, 2009 6:43 pm

345
ABNT20 KNHC 112340
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
RECENTLY-DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM FRED...LOCATED ABOUT 715 MILES
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER COVERING MUCH OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. WHILE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MINIMAL...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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#18 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 11, 2009 7:05 pm

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Elongated north-south
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#19 Postby O Town » Fri Sep 11, 2009 8:36 pm

Not looking so impressive ATM.

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Re: Impressive tropical wave near Africa

#20 Postby lonelymike » Fri Sep 11, 2009 8:58 pm

where do the models take this bad boy long range?
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