Possible East Gulf Development

[caneman]

I believe you folks are looking in the wrong area. This thread far better represents what is taking place rather than a NW Gulf thread. Pressures are falling in the Eastern Gulf, there is intense convection going on in the Eastern Gulf. We have been getting hammered with rain since yesterday and as Vortex and Ronjon had pointed out some models have called for development in the Eastern Gulf. NHC has also increased their watch area to include the eastern Gulf. I submit to you that this is the area to watch, assuming their is enough time for development

[attallaman]

I believe you folks are looking in the wrong area. This thread far better represents what is taking place rather than a NW Gulf thread. Pressures are falling in the Eastern Gulf, there is intense convection going on in the Eastern Gulf. We have been getting hammered with rain since yesterday and as Vortex and Ronjon had pointed out some models have called for development in the Eastern Gulf. NHC has also increased their watch area to include the eastern Gulf. I submit to you that this is the area to watch, assuming their is enough time for development

Any model links?

[Emmett_Brown]

Well, this buoy in the SE gulf is showing breezy SSW winds and a lowering pressure:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003

The bouy is located at 25.96 N 85.59. If there is a center trying to form out there, it would probably be W of this location.

[Emmett_Brown]

This is a recent quickscat of the area. There might be a weak LLC forming near 26N 89W, but it is elongated and attached to the trough that stretches across the GOM:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/quikscat.php?station=42003

[jinftl]

NOAA graphic released early this morning...Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability (highest probability in Gulf is down a slight bit from yesterday's release, but not by much, and overall, the odds have remained steady from yesterday)

[wxman57]

This is a recent quickscat of the area. There might be a weak LLC forming near 26N 89W, but it is elongated and attached to the trough that stretches across the GOM:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/quikscat.php?station=42003

No need for QS in the Gulf - PLENTY of real surface obs all around. There's nothing near 26N/89W, as you can see on the plot below. Just S-SSW wind 15 kts through the region. There is a very weak low just off the MS/AL coasts moving inland. Deeper low just off the mid TX coast.

Nothing to support any low development in the eastern Gulf. The NW Gulf is where all the upper-level support is. Look there:

[caneman]

I don't think we are looking at much development from either side of the Gulf WXMN but the fact is that there is a low in the Eastern Gulf producing tremmendous rainfall on the West coast of Florida (I'm assuming other areas as well). Winds associated with this low in its general area are producing 25-30 mph winds. So the real point being is that much of the rainfall/weather is actually occurring in the Eastern Gulf.

[Dean4Storms]

NGP continues with a closed low developing in the eastern Gulf 4-5 days timeframe. Just don't see anything in the short term!

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

[bayoubebe]

This is a recent quickscat of the area. There might be a weak LLC forming near 26N 89W, but it is elongated and attached to the trough that stretches across the GOM:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/quikscat.php?station=42003

No need for QS in the Gulf - PLENTY of real surface obs all around. There's nothing near 26N/89W, as you can see on the plot below. Just S-SSW wind 15 kts through the region. There is a very weak low just off the MS/AL coasts moving inland. Deeper low just off the mid TX coast.

Nothing to support any low development in the eastern Gulf. The NW Gulf is where all the upper-level support is. Look there:

That explains that. Thank you for the explanation and putting it in terms that all of us can understand.

[artist]

what is going on around 27.5/85.5 ?
Run a 12 image loop, on medium centered just oof the west center coast of Florida.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

[BigA]

what is going on around 27.5/85.5 ?
Run a 12 image loop, on medium centered just oof the west center coast of Florida.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

I´m not sure what I can see via visible imagery, as the computer I´m on can´t run JAVA loops, but I will say that in the 2245 UTC surface observations, it does look like there is a closed low level circulation somewhere in that vicinity or slightly to the west.

[gatorcane]

The EGOM is where things are favorable for development. Wind shear analysis from CIMSS shows the EGOM under the influence of a large anti-cyclone at the upper-levels, albeit at the eastern edge of the anti-cyclone.

There is even some low-level convergence showing up on the CIMSS maps, in the EGOM.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html

Still, chances of development seem low but I think code yellow should be shaded for the EGOM and removed for the NW GOM for the next advisory. If convection continues, it will be shaded by tomorrow.

[BigA]

The EGOM is where things are favorable for development. Wind shear analysis from CIMSS shows the EGOM under the influence of a large anti-cyclone at the upper-levels, albeit at the eastern edge of the anti-cyclone.

There is even some low-level convergence showing up on the CIMSS maps, in the EGOM.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html

Still, chances of development seem low but I think code yellow should be shaded for the EGOM and removed for the NW GOM for the next advisory. If convection continues, it will be shaded by tomorrow.

I agree 100%. There are parts of the East central GOM where shear is nearly 0, and surface observations indicate a broad area of low pressure to the southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi river, with a smaller eddy of low pressure just to the southeast of the mouth. Pressures in the eastern gulf have been falling this afternoon.

For what its worth, the weather channel map indicates a low in the location where I have specified.

[attallaman]

The EGOM is where things are favorable for development. Wind shear analysis from CIMSS shows the EGOM under the influence of a large anti-cyclone at the upper-levels, albeit at the eastern edge of the anti-cyclone.

There is even some low-level convergence showing up on the CIMSS maps, in the EGOM.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html

Still, chances of development seem low but I think code yellow should be shaded for the EGOM and removed for the NW GOM for the next advisory. If convection continues, it will be shaded by tomorrow.

I agree 100%. There are parts of the East central GOM where shear is nearly 0, and surface observations indicate a broad area of low pressure to the southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi river, with a smaller eddy of low pressure just to the southeast of the mouth. Pressures in the eastern gulf have been falling this afternoon.

For what its worth, the weather channel map indicates a low in the location where I have specified.

Has that L been near the mouth of the MS for most of the day today? If it has was it that L that was pumping all the rain up into my coastline for most of the day today instead of the L in TX?

[jinftl]

Dr. Jeff Master's wrote in his blog today in the 'elsewhere in the tropics' section:

Over the next few days, we should also be alert for tropical storm development along a frontal zone stretching from the Gulf of Mexico waters offshore the western Florida coast, across the Florida Peninsula, to the waters between the Bahamas and North Carolina

He does expect shear to be high and this could possible even take a sub-tropical storm nature. Although, the shear forecasts I have seen aren't categorically 'high'.....areas of the central and se gulf will maintain fairly low shear through the week, while offshore the se u.s. coast, shear will be higher.

At 120 hours, areas shaded in blue are deemed 'favorable for development' based on shear, sst, relative humidity, and latitude (on a side note, this is significantly more favorable conditions overall than we have seen in the gulf and nw carribean especially):


http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/TROPDEV/dev120.gif

The EGOM is where things are favorable for development. Wind shear analysis from CIMSS shows the EGOM under the influence of a large anti-cyclone at the upper-levels, albeit at the eastern edge of the anti-cyclone.

There is even some low-level convergence showing up on the CIMSS maps, in the EGOM.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html

Still, chances of development seem low but I think code yellow should be shaded for the EGOM and removed for the NW GOM for the next advisory. If convection continues, it will be shaded by tomorrow.

I agree 100%. There are parts of the East central GOM where shear is nearly 0, and surface observations indicate a broad area of low pressure to the southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi river, with a smaller eddy of low pressure just to the southeast of the mouth. Pressures in the eastern gulf have been falling this afternoon.

For what its worth, the weather channel map indicates a low in the location where I have specified.

[attallaman]

Speaking of more rain, some seems to be entering my state from the SW, weather radar image courtesy of WWLTV4.COM, NOLA.


http://www.wwltv.com/weather/myownradar ... index.html

[artist]

thanks guys

[caneman]

It has been very tropical here the last couple of days. Interesting weather we get during these El Nino years. Can't believe the amount of rainfall in the last couple of days. It looks like we're not done yet either.

[brunota2003]

Because this does also accompany the Eastern GOM:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE FRONT AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. THIS LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AND PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[caneman]

Am I imagining things or does it appear that much of this activity has shifted to the East coast of FLorida?