2009 Hurricane Season Summary

[Frank2]

El Nino = shear = fewer tropical cyclones...

Pro Met Derek pointed out that shear seen at the mid levels is not related to El Nino, but for certain it's been proven that upper level shear over the Atlantic basin does originate in the Eastern Pacific during El Nino events, and does have a profound effect on tropical cyclone formation...

I don't mean to repeat something that's been said a thousand times since Spring, but there are always new folks here that need to understand why things have been so quiet this year (thankfully)...

This season reminds me of the 1983 season, which also began late, and had only one major hurricane (Alicia):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Atlan ... ane_season

1983 also had many weak systems due to shear (and many more exposed LLC's), so considering that October is only 2 weeks away (hard to believe), it's time to say that the 2009 season thankfully was another "El Nino break" for the many (myself included) who were burdened by one hurricane or another during 2004, 2005, 2007 and 2008 (I had to evacuate for Wilma in 2005 and spent 10 days in a hotel)...

I will never say that a season is over or not (only God can), but the handwriting is on the wall that it's almost over, that's for sure...

Frank

P.S. Congratulations to Dr. Frank Marks (HRD Director) who decided to put all of his 2009 flight hour eggs in one basket when it came to Hurricane Bill, since that was very likely the only research opportunity this year...

[Sanibel]

The season is so unfavorable you don't see anyone rushing in to tell Frank he is wrong.

[Frank2]

So far so good...

LOL

[Macrocane]

I wouldn't say it's over. Here is a list of systems that have developed after september during some El Niño years:

2004: TS Mathew (oct), TS Nicole (oct) and TS Otto (oct).
2002: TD fourteen (oct)
1997: TS Fabian (oct), TS Grace (oct).
1994: Hurricae Florence (cat 2, nov), Hurricane Gordon (cat 1, nov)
1991: TS Fabian (oct), TD Ten (oct), Hurricane Grace (cat 2, oct), Halloween Perfect Storm (cat 1, oct).

As you can see El Niño years can bring some late development on the ATL, so we cannot say that the season is over yet.

[Frank2]

True, but 9 (named) systems in 18 years is a very low percentage, so never say never, and it's very possible that we might still see one or two more named systems, but the season is quickly coming to a close, as it did in 2006 - for the similar reasons.

Operational meteorology being a practical science (based on observation), it's the day to day signs that need to be understood and accepted when it comes to what the final outcome is likely to be...

Or, as the Bible says, "Jesus said to the crowd: "When you see a cloud rising in the west, immediately you say, 'It's going to rain,' and it does." (Luke 12:54)

Frank