Tropical Wave west of Cape Verde

[Anthonyl]

The next system seems to exhibit some cyclonic turning and there has been indication from recent modle runs by the GFS that the potential for formation maybe a real posibility. Of note is the low latitude of this system and the marginal conditions which prevail in the general vicinity.

[Gustywind]

[leanne_uk]

i know this post is from last week but looking at the above sat feed which runs up until this morning I noticed a pocket of storms just coming off the coast of Africa. Are these nothing to be concerned about or something to maybe keep an eye on?

[alan1961]

i know this post is from last week but looking at the above sat feed which runs up until this morning I noticed a pocket of storms just coming off the coast of Africa. Are these nothing to be concerned about or something to maybe keep an eye on?

Just something to keep an eye on Leanne, the SAL is very much in evidence to the north of it, not as bad as in Sydney though!

[leanne_uk]

i couldnt believe when i saw the pictures of Sidney this morning it looks like a scene from a sci fi film lol.
Yeh i was aware of the SAL to the north just wandered whether it was worth a little watch

[BigA]

looks to me from the Wisconsin SAL imagery that the SAL is primarily to the north and west of this low, and if it can stay south of 15 for a while, it can avoid the death SAL and death shear.

[leanne_uk]

thats just it tho, if this is something to keep an eye on it has to stay around 15. What are the chances of that happening and it totally avoiding the problems north of it?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W TO THE
SOUTH OF 19N...JUST ANALYZED ON THE SURFACE MAP AT 23/1200 UTC.
A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N.
THIS FEATURE SHOWS UP WELL IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE AREAS FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 18W AND 21W. RANDOM
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE WATERS JUST TO THE EAST AND SOUTH
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 19W AND 24W.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W SOUTH OF
19N MOVING W AT 10 KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS NEAR 12N. THIS SYSTEM SHOWS UP WELL ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A BAND OF DRY
AIR AND DUST HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE NORTH AND WEST SIDES OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW HOWEVER. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN
20W-25W.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN
30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[tolakram]

Doesn't look all that bad. Some dry air around it.

[gatorcane]

00Z GFS tracks it towards the NE Leewards.

[BigA]

Doesn't look bad at all right now...most of the convection to the north of the low level spin (per quikscat), which looks to be at or a bit north of 12 north, but its "unpoofed" very well after yesterday.

Looking through the archives, second half of September Cape Verde storms aren't terribly rare, but they usually don't get too far west.(2000's Isaac and Joyce come to mind as examples of late September storms that didn't get too far west.)

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 241054
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W S OF
17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE
WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE FIRST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES AND A 0754 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS...IT APPEARS THAT
THE LOW CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12N27W WITH THE WAVE AXIS TILTS
NE TO SW THROUGH THE LOW CENTER. THE WAVE WILL MOST LIKELY BE
RELOCATED ON THE NEXT SURFACE ANALYSIS TO BETTER ALIGN WITH THIS
NEW DATA. A LARGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST SURROUNDS THE SYSTEM TO
THE N AND WRAPPING AROUND THE W SIDE. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
THE DUST...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
12N-18N BETWEEN 20W-29W...AND FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 19W-24W.


$$
WALTON

[Gustywind]

00Z GFS tracks it towards the NE Leewards.

Any links Gator Tkanks

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

722
ABNT20 KNHC 241740
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[CrazyC83]

Looks to be winds around 40 kt, but nothing remotely resembling a circulation...