Hurricane Georges Anniversary

[cycloneye]

This hurricane affected many people in the track it took from the Caribbean islands to the Northern Gulf Coast.Puerto Rico and many of the islands in the NE Caribbean were affected directly.



In this thread the advisories from when it all began to take shape in the far Eastern Atlantic to when it made landfall in PR will be posted as the days pass.

September 15 1998

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST TUE SEP 15 1998

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC FROM A TROPICAL
WAVE THAT MOVED OFF THE AFRICAN COAST A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 25.9 WEST
OR ABOUT 400 MILES....660 KM...SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH ...33 KM/HR
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEPRESSION TO
STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION... 9.0 N... 25.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.

AVILA

STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT72 KNHC.


NNNN

[cycloneye]

September 16 1998

Georges is born as a Tropical Storm.

MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GEORGES ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST WED SEP 16 1998

...SEVENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM
GEORGES. THE NAME IS FRENCH AND IS PRONOUNCED...ZHORZH.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF THE NEWLY-FORMED TROPICAL STORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.4 WEST OR ABOUT
620 MILES...1000 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

GEORGES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH... 65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...10.5 N... 32.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.

AVILA

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 16 1998

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD
PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE ENVELOPE AND THE
CENTER APPEARS TO BE UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION WITH SOME BANDING
FEATURES. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE BOTH
2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE AND THE DATA-T FROM THE AIR FORCE GLOBAL
WEATHER CENTER IS 3.0. THIS IS THE BASIS FOR UPGRADING THE SYSTEM TO
A TROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST
200 MB EASTERLIES OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AND BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL
BRING THE SYSTEM TO HURRICANE STATUS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING AND MAKES GEORGES A 70-KNOT HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS.

INITIAL MOTION IS 275/17. THERE IS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE ANCHORED
TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM. THEREFORE...A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK IS
FORECAST WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEYOND 48 HOURS.
THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH TRACK MODELS PRIMARILY THE GDFL...LBAR AND
CLIMATOLOGY.

ONE SHOULD MENTION THAT THE AVN DEVELOPS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WELL
AHEAD OF GEORGES AND THIS MODEL FEATURE ERODES THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE CURRENTLY STEERING GEORGES. THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE REALISTIC...AND THE RIDGE COULD REMAIN STRONG.
IF SO...GEORGES SHOULD CONTINUE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK.

AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/1500Z 10.5N 32.4W 35 KTS
12HR VT 17/0000Z 10.7N 34.9W 40 KTS
24HR VT 17/1200Z 11.2N 38.0W 45 KTS
36HR VT 18/0000Z 11.5N 41.0W 50 KTS
48HR VT 18/1200Z 12.2N 44.0W 60 KTS
72HR VT 19/1200Z 13.5N 50.0W 70 KTS


NNNN

[cycloneye]

September 17 1998

Georges becomes the fourth hurricane of the 1998 season.

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GEORGES ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM AST THU SEP 17 1998

...GEORGES BECOMES THE FOURTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT GEORGES HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE...
SUGGESTING THAT IT HAS REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GEORGES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.1 WEST OR ABOUT 1300
MILES...2100 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

GEORGES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
HURRICANE.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...12.5 N... 41.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.

AVILA

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 17 1998

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT GEORGES HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE AND THE
EXPERIMENTAL AND NEW OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE SUPPORTS A CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS. THIS IMPLIES THAT GEORGES IS NOW A
HURRICANE. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC
...AND GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A 200 MB HIGH WITH
EASTERLIES OVER THE DEEP TROPICS THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE SHIPS
INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL BRINGS GEORGES TO 107 KNOTS BY 72 HOURS SO
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A 100-KNOT HURRICANE BY 48 HOURS OR
SO.

INITIAL MOTION IS 275/17. A DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS
A CONTINUED MOTION SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS IS ALSO SHOWN BY GFDL...LBAR AND UK MODELS.

NOTE: 5-DAY GFDL AND LBAR BRING GEORGES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...THERE ARE LARGE UNCERTAINTIES IN SUCH LONG
RANGE FORECASTS WHICH ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE.

AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/2100Z 12.5N 41.1W 65 KTS
12HR VT 18/0600Z 12.8N 43.7W 75 KTS
24HR VT 18/1800Z 13.2N 47.2W 80 KTS
36HR VT 19/0600Z 14.0N 51.0W 90 KTS
48HR VT 19/1800Z 15.0N 54.0W 100 KTS
72HR VT 20/1800Z 16.0N 60.0W 100 KTS

[Gustywind]

Good job as usual Cycloneye i appreciate sincerely . Hopefully Guadeloupe has been a bit spared by this monster even if the nothern tip of the island experienced hurricane force winds!:eek:

[MGC]

We were Georges final stop on his Caribbean odyssey. Several landfalls in the Caribbean and two in Conus. Georges caused a massive evacuation from New Orleans, the first of many leading up to Katrina. I remember landfall was going to be the New Orleans area but Georges decided to visit Mississippi instead, making landfall at Biloxi as a Cat-2. I was on the west side of the hurricane and only experienced TS force winds. It was the first TC my sons went through. It has been a rather busy along the gulf coast the past decade. Hopefully things will quite down in coming years......MGC

[Ptarmigan]

We were Georges final stop on his Caribbean odyssey. Several landfalls in the Caribbean and two in Conus. Georges caused a massive evacuation from New Orleans, the first of many leading up to Katrina. I remember landfall was going to be the New Orleans area but Georges decided to visit Mississippi instead, making landfall at Biloxi as a Cat-2. I was on the west side of the hurricane and only experienced TS force winds. It was the first TC my sons went through. It has been a rather busy along the gulf coast the past decade. Hopefully things will quite down in coming years......MGC

Georges dumped extremely heavy rains on the Gulf Coast.

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Storm Georges

September 17, 1998

1800 UTC

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/rsad/hursat/index.php

[Ptarmigan]

I checked that link and it got STY Tip from 1979. Quite a large storm!

[m_ru]

We were Georges final stop on his Caribbean odyssey. Several landfalls in the Caribbean and two in Conus. Georges caused a massive evacuation from New Orleans, the first of many leading up to Katrina. I remember landfall was going to be the New Orleans area but Georges decided to visit Mississippi instead, making landfall at Biloxi as a Cat-2. I was on the west side of the hurricane and only experienced TS force winds. It was the first TC my sons went through. It has been a rather busy along the gulf coast the past decade. Hopefully things will quite down in coming years......MGC

Georges was really nasty over here in Jackson County. You got lucky!

[baygirl_1]

I remember Hurricane Georges as the storm that wouldn't end: it just kept raining and raining and raining! I think it went on for 3 days and places in Alabama and the Florida Panhandle received anywhere from 10-20 inches. One location in Bay Minette recorded over 29 inches of rain! (Of course, that wasn't as bad as Danny that dumped almost 37 inches of rain on Dauphin Island the year before.)

[cycloneye]

September 18 1998,hurricane watches for islands

Note=I was without internet for 2 days that is why the delay in the posting of advisories but I am back.

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GEORGES ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM AST FRI SEP 18 1998

...GEORGES BECOMING A DANGEROUS HURRICANE...HEADING FOR THE LESSER
ANTILLES...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z THE RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS OF THE DIFFERENT
ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAVE ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM
ST. LUCIA NORTHWARD TO ANGUILLA INCLUDING SABA AND ST. MAARTEN.
THIS MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GEORGES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.5 WEST OR ABOUT 825 MILES...
1330 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

GEORGES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH ...35 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE HURRICANE WILL AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE
WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GEORGES IS CURRENTLY A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE AND IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A
CATEGORY THREE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...13.7 N... 48.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 970 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
AST.

AVILA

STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT72 KNHC.


NNNN

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 1998

DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE
INDICATING THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 90 KNOTS. THE EYE AS WELL AS
BANDING FEATURES HAVE PERSISTED ALL DAY AND THERE ARE A NO
WESTERLIES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AND
GEORGES IS FORECAST TO BECOME A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE AS SUGGESTED BY SHIPS INTENSITY
FORECAST MODEL.

INITIAL MOTION IS 275/19. A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LOCATED TO
THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST. THEREFORE...A
CONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
THE GFDL AND LBAR ALTHOUGH NOGAPS...AVN UKMET AND HPC ARE SHOWING A
MORE NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON
THE OTHER HAND OTHER MODELS SUGGEST TRACKS SOUTH OF DUE WEST. IN
OTHER WORDS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL
FORECAST TRACK ENSEMBLE AT THIS TIME.

AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/2100Z 13.7N 48.5W 90 KTS
12HR VT 19/0600Z 14.0N 51.4W 95 KTS
24HR VT 19/1800Z 14.5N 55.3W 100 KTS
36HR VT 20/0600Z 15.0N 59.1W 110 KTS
48HR VT 20/1800Z 15.5N 62.5W 120 KTS
72HR VT 21/1800Z 16.0N 67.5W 120 KTS


NNNN

[cycloneye]

September 19 1998,Hurricane Watch for Puerto Rico

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GEORGES ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SAT SEP 19 1998

...GEORGES NOW A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
HURRICANE HEADING TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS OF THE DIFFERENT
ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAVE ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM
DOMINICA NORTHWARD TO ANGUILLA EXCEPT FOR THE FRENCH ISLAND OF ST.
BARTHELEMY AND THE FRENCH PORTION OF ST. MARTIN WHICH REMAIN UNDER A
HURRICANE WATCH.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED
COMPLETION.

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR PUERTO
RICO.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM MARTINIQUE SOUTHWARD TO ST.
LUCIA...FOR THE BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST. BARTHELEMY
...FRENCH ST. MARTIN AND FOR PUERTO RICO.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE WELL-DEFINED EYE OF HURRICANE GEORGES WAS
LOCATED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 54.4 WEST OR ABOUT 450 MILES...725 KM...EAST OF
GUADELOUPE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

GEORGES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEAR THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THOSE
ISLANDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE BY SUNDAY MORNING.

AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS INDICATE THAT GEORGES IS NOW AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 145
MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 944
MB...27.88 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN... ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF GEORGES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED NEAR
AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE HURRICANE INTERACTS WITH THE ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...15.7 N... 54.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 944 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
AST.

AVILA

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 1998

RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FOUND FLIGHT-LEVEL PEAK WINDS OF 146 KNOTS NEAR
IN THE EYEWALL. A DROP IN THE EYEWALL JUST MEASURED 119 KNOTS WHICH
IS AN AVERAGE OVER THE LOWEST 2000 FEET OR SO. THEREFORE...INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 125 KNOTS. THIS MATCHES WITH THE OBJECTIVE
DVORAK T-NUMBERS WHICH HAVE BEEN OSCILLATING BETWEEN 6.0 AND 6.5.
SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BUT INTENSITY MAY FLUCTUATE
AS THE HURRICANE INTERACTS WITH THE ISLANDS LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD..

THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING 290/17 KNOTS. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE
A 500MB RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE WHICH IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST OR STRENGTHEN. THIS RIDGE COULD FORCE THE
HURRICANE ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AS INDICATED BY LBAR...BAMD AND
THE RELIABLE GFDL. HOWEVER..SINCE NOGPAS AND THE UKMET MODELS ARE
CONSISTENTLY TAKING GEORGE ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK...AND THE
CURRENT INITIAL MOTION IS 290 DEGREES...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK. THIS MOTION BRINGS THE HURRICANE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS AND NEAR PUERTO RICO WITHIN 48 HOUR OR SO.

A KEY PLAYER COULD BE AN UPPER LOW OVER HISPANIOLA. MODELS WEAKEN
THE LOW RAPIDLY OR MOVE IT SOUTHWESTWARD BUT THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF
EITHER AT THIS TIME. IF THE LOW REMAINS...A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT
SHOULD RESULT.

AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/2100Z 15.7N 54.4W 125 KTS
12HR VT 20/0600Z 16.5N 57.0W 125 KTS
24HR VT 20/1800Z 17.0N 60.3W 130 KTS
36HR VT 21/0600Z 17.5N 63.5W 130 KTS
48HR VT 21/1800Z 18.0N 66.5W 130 KTS
72HR VT 22/1800Z 18.5N 72.5W 130 KTS


NNNN

[cycloneye]

September 20 1998=Dangerous Hurricane Georges moves thru Leeward Islands


ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GEORGES ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SUN SEP 20 1998

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE GEORGES BEARING DOWN ON THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...

HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM DOMINICA NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO PUERTO RICO.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT
FROM MARTINIQUE SOUTHWARD TO ST. LUCIA.

A REMINDER: A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY
BEEN COMPLETED. ELSEWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA...PREPARATIONS SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GEORGES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.4 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES
...45 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANTIGUA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

GEORGES IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECT TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AND CONTINUE TOWARD THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE DAY MONDAY. REMEMBER: IT IS
IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE PRECISE TRACK SINCE THE HURRICANE
IS NOT A POINT AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS COVER A WIDE SWATH.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GEORGES IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND SPEED ARE POSSIBLE...
BUT GEORGES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A DANGEROUS HURRICANE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

GUSTS TO 88 MPH...142 KM/H...HAVE BEEN REPORTED TWO HOURS AGO
ON THE ISLAND OF DESIRADE. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN ARE POSSIBLE EVEN OUTSIDE
OF THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN...ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF GEORGES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED NEAR
AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE HURRICANE INTERACTS WITH THE ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...16.9 N... 61.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 966 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
AST...MONDAY.

GUINEY

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 1998

THE MET OFFICE IN GUADELOUPE HAS FORWARDED THE 01Z OBSERVATION FROM
DESIRADE WHICH REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 57 KNOTS WITH A GUSTS TO
76 KNOTS. THE LATEST DATA RECEIVED FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT GEORGES HAS CONTINUED TO
WEAKEN THIS EVENING WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAVING RISEN TO
966 MB. THIS REPRESENTS A 25 MB INCREASE DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS DURING THE LAST PASS WAS 114 KNOTS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE WEAKENING TREND WITH THE COLD CLOUD
TOPS REMAINING ASYMMETRIC AND THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. BASED ON THIS DATA...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 100 KNOTS...KEEPING GEORGES A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE THAT IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTENSIVE DAMAGE.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE
IS RESTRICTED. EXAMINATION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...ALONG WITH
ANALYSES FROM THE COOPERATIVE INSTITUTE FOR METEOROLOGICAL SATELLITE
STUDIES AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN...SUGGESTS THAT NORTH/
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS ONE OF THE POSSIBLE
CULPRITS RESPONSIBLE FOR GEORGES WEAKENING. SOME OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THAT THE SHEAR SHOULD RELAX SOMEWHAT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION. ON
THE OTHER HAND...THE SYSTEM MAY WEAKEN MORE AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
LARGER ISLANDS...I.E. PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. THEREFORE...GIVEN
THIS UNCERTAINTY THE FORECAST MAINTAINS GEORGES INTENSITY AT 100
KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS UNCHANGED AT 285/14 KNOTS.
THE STEERING OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL DEPEND UPON THE STRENGTH
OF THE MID-TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED BETWEEN
20N-30N NORTH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE GFDL MODEL IS TO THE LEFT OF OUR TRACK WHILE
THE UKMET IS WELL TO THE RIGHT. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE THREAT TO THE MAINLAND U.S. AT THIS TIME.

GUINEY

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0300Z 16.9N 61.4W 100 KTS
12HR VT 21/1200Z 17.2N 63.5W 100 KTS
24HR VT 22/0000Z 18.0N 66.0W 100 KTS
36HR VT 22/1200Z 18.8N 68.3W 100 KTS
48HR VT 23/0000Z 19.6N 70.3W 100 KTS
72HR VT 24/0000Z 21.0N 74.0W 100 KTS

[Derek Ortt]

a nice SAL intrusion spared the islands a cat 4 hurricane

[CrazyC83]

Looking at the data, FL winds of 152 kt and GPS dropsondes measuring 150 kt near the surface suggest that Georges may have been a Cat 5 east of the islands (140 kt)...

[Derek Ortt]

what dropsondes measured 150KT AT the surface?

if they measured 150KT about 100m above the surface, that equates to about 130 at the surface. Simple log layer

[cycloneye]

21 of September 1998=Makes landfall in Puerto Rico

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GEORGES ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM AST MON SEP 21 1998

...GEORGES BATTERING EASTERN PUERTO RICO...ALL PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE
COMPLETE...

HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM ST
NICOLAS TO THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR
EASTERN CUBA FROM THE PROVINCE OF LAS TUNAS EASTWARD TO GUANTANAMO.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MAINTAIN
PRECAUTIONS UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GEORGES WAS LOCATED JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO NEAR LATITUDE 18.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.6 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO.

GEORGES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...BRINGING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE
OVER PUERTO RICO TONIGHT. REMEMBER...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS
ON THE PRECISE FORECAST TRACK SINCE THE HURRICANE IS NOT A POINT AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS COVER A WIDE SWATH. THOSE EXPERIENCING THE CALM
EYE OF THE HURRICANE SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AND NOT VENTURE
OUTDOORS AS WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY AGAIN.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR 150 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME
FURTHER FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND SPEED ARE POSSIBLE...BUT GEORGES IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A DANGEROUS HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WINDS NEAR 100 MPH WERE ESTIMATED ON A SHIP ANCHORED AT VIEQUES IN
THE PAST HOUR.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE JUST REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 967 MB...28.55 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY 20 INCHES OR MORE OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF GEORGES...
ESPECIALLY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE CENTER.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED NEAR
AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE HURRICANE INTERACTS WITH THE ISLANDS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH GEORGES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...18.0 N... 65.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 967 MB.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 PM AST AND 9 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 11 PM AST.

PASCH

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 21 1998

THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN A LITTLE AND THE RADAR PRESENTATION
IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE WITH A GOOD BIT OF BANDING OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. SINCE THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH LAND...
RAPID DEEPENING IS UNLIKELY BEFORE THE EYEWALL REACHES PUERTO RICO.
THERE IS STILL A HINT OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE AREA...BUT
THIS APPEARS TO BE LESSENING. LATEST ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY
OF WISCONSIN CIMSS SHOW VERTICAL SHEAR MOSTLY LESS THAN 20 KNOTS
ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH OF THE HURRICANE. OTHERWISE THE ONLY
IMPEDIMENTS TO STRENGTHENING ARE THE LAND MASSES OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE BEING HISPANIOLA.

USING RECON FIXES...AND SMOOTHING OUT THE TROCHOIDAL WOBBLES FROM
RADAR...GIVES A CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/14 WHICH IS ABOUT THE
SAME AS BEFORE. THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS FROM 12Z SHOW LITTLE
EVIDENCE THAT THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF GEORGES WILL GIVE
WAY ENOUGH TO ALLOW A SIGNIFICANT TURN TO THE NORTH DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT BUT
STILL SHOWS SOME SPREAD...BETWEEN FORECAST POSITIONS NEAR OR JUST
SOUTH OF EASTERN CUBA...AS GIVEN BY DEEP- AND MEDIUM LAYER BAM AND
THE BAROTROPIC TO JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AS GIVEN BY THE
U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL. UNFORTUNATELY..THE LATTER MODELS FORECAST
TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTING FARTHER AND FARTHER TO THE WEST WITH EACH
NEW RUN.

PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/2100Z 18.0N 65.6W 95 KTS
12HR VT 22/0600Z 18.5N 67.7W 95 KTS
24HR VT 22/1800Z 19.2N 70.1W 90 KTS
36HR VT 23/0600Z 20.0N 72.5W 80 KTS
48HR VT 23/1800Z 21.0N 74.5W 85 KTS
72HR VT 24/1800Z 23.0N 77.5W 90 KTS

[cycloneye]

Here is a great You-Tube video by Jim Leonard of the landfall of Georges in Puerto Rico.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HyTLvHvdiG4

[HurricaneBill]

A Civil Defense office in Fajardo, PR recorded sustained winds of 96KT and gusts up to 113KT. Because of this, Georges was classified as a Category 3 at landfall.

[cycloneye]

This is the report from the San Juan NWS office of Georges.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/?n=1998_georges