New system near 30N/60W?

[CrazyC83]

I don't think that this is the remnants of Fred (if it is, then he has gone every which way), but there seems to be a pretty good amount of convection around 30N/60W. Shear is pretty low in the area compared to most of the Atlantic and decreasing (about 10-15 kt, with very little mid-level shear). This might be somewhere to watch.

[CrazyC83]

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W TO THE SOUTH OF
20N MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. THIS WAVE SHOWS UP IN THE LOW CLOUD
FIELD IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE WAVE IS ABOUT 250 NM TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE
COMPARATIVELY STRONGEST CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 21N TO
22N BETWEEN 48W AND 59W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE
REST OF THE AREA FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 43W AND 50W.

Could get interesting if it interacts with the trough that now has ex-Fred.

[carolina_73]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640_anis.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2 Looks like some turning to the southwest of the convection.

[wxman57]

That's former Invest 98L

[cycloneye]

That's former Invest 98L

57,my estimate is that former invest 98L is the area around 21N-48W.

[Nimbus]

This area near 60W is the tail end of the front that pulled a little of ex freds energy east with it.

[carolina_73]

This area near 60W is the tail end of the front that pulled a little of ex freds energy east with it.

That's what I was thinking as well. The remnants of 98L should be to the SE of this area.

[IvanSurvivor]

Saw this area earlier, but have know idea what I'm really looking at...waited for someone that did know to say something!

[CrazyC83]

Ex-98L looks better now, but is sitting in a boatload of shear. The northern system is in a low shear environment and stalled fronts sometimes do create storms.

[wxman57]

That's former Invest 98L

57,my estimate is that former invest 98L is the area around 21N-48W.

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/sat_mosa ... vratl1.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

We've been tracking it since it moved off Africa. It's the same wave as 98L.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Fego]

That's former Invest 98L

57,my estimate is that former invest 98L is the area around 21N-48W.

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/sat_mosa ... vratl1.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

We've been tracking it since it moved off Africa. It's the same wave as 98L.

May be this loop can help you both: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ATL/animir.html

[somethingfunny]

I wonder if this area might just end up surprising us with a short-lived TS Grace getting booted out to the NE by the westerlies. It's certainly happened before, especially in shear years like 1997:



Ana, Bill, Claudette, Fabian and Grace all originated from similar synoptics during that year. I have a hard time believing we won't see at least one of this type of system develop in 2009.

[IvanSurvivor]

Just copied this:

000
NOUS42 KNHC 241315
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0915 AM EDT THU 24 SEPTEMBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-119

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 30N 65W AT 26/1800Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

[CrazyC83]

Interesting there is a POD and not even a Code Yellow...a non-tropical flight perhaps?

[CrazyC83]

Updated the status to make note of the Recon, but with three question marks as it is highly, highly uncertain.

[sandyb]

I don't think that this is the remnants of Fred (if it is, then he has gone every which way), but there seems to be a pretty good amount of convection around 30N/60W. Shear is pretty low in the area compared to most of the Atlantic and decreasing (about 10-15 kt, with very little mid-level shear). This might be somewhere to watch.

where have you been the remnants of Fred just came on shore on Mon night & Tuesday in SC/NC boarder..we got plenty of rain from him

[Emmett_Brown]

If you look at the vis loop, there is a definite low level turning, so there is something at the surface. Still involved with and upper level low, however, so no rapid development.

[OuterBanker]

It appears that it is a cold low dropping to the surface. Not much convection involved, but it is something to watch.

Besides, there is nothing else to watch which is amazing for this time of year.

[wxman57]

Deepening upper low with a surface low reflection for now. But such systems can develop into TCs or STCs given enough time. Probably only a threat to Bermuda.