Surface Trough near Leewards

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BigA
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Surface Trough near Leewards

#1 Postby BigA » Fri Sep 25, 2009 5:58 pm

This wave is pretty far to the south, between 7 and 12 north. It has retained some convection, though not a great deal, and appears to have a spin at some level associated with it. It's getting late in the game for any east Atlantic system, but no reason that we can't keep a weather-eye on it. Shear looks low in its immediate future, and the air looks fairly moist until about 35 west.
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#2 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 25, 2009 6:00 pm

Image

Latest
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#3 Postby leanne_uk » Fri Sep 25, 2009 6:06 pm

thats the wave i looked at earlier and mentioned on TD 8 link. I dont know how to post images and sat feeds tho so couldnt put it on :(
Anyways its on now and i am glad we can discuss it :)

Like the look of it tho esp with it being a bit further south than many of the systems of late :)
Last edited by leanne_uk on Fri Sep 25, 2009 6:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: New wave to south of Cape Verde Islands

#4 Postby ozonepete » Fri Sep 25, 2009 6:39 pm

I think this has some realistic TC potential. Can't post images right now, but TD8 will take the SAL with it and this easterly waver is farther south as you have both noted. Down side is the models don't acknowledge it at all, but they often don't at this early stage. It's size alone is a big plus. BTW, it's latitude is not far enough south to be a hindrance, from what I know.
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Re: New wave to south of Cape Verde Islands

#5 Postby BigA » Fri Sep 25, 2009 6:46 pm

I'm not sure if ridge/trough conditions are comparable, but maybe we'll have a Joyce 2000 redux type system. It formed around this time of year, and became a 90 mph hurricane, before upper level winds and the storm's own forward motion (if I remember correctly) severely weakened it. It piques my interest because Joyce and Isaac formed around the same time, while Isaac recurved and Joyce stayed south of 12-13 north for its life.
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Re: New wave to south of Cape Verde Islands

#6 Postby ozonepete » Fri Sep 25, 2009 9:02 pm

Yeah, this one is pulling energy from TD8. It will be the dominant system.

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Last edited by ozonepete on Fri Sep 25, 2009 9:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#7 Postby Typhoon_Willie » Fri Sep 25, 2009 9:05 pm

We will have to wait and see about that one.
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Re:

#8 Postby ozonepete » Fri Sep 25, 2009 9:12 pm

Typhoon_Willie wrote:We will have to wait and see about that one.


I agree we just have to wait, but I think TD8 is taking the dust for it's follower... I added a satellite image to illustrate it, and we have to remember that at this time of year (end of September) the lower the latitude the African easterly wave is, the less likely it will get picked up by, or sheared by, the digging westerlies.
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Re: New wave to south of Cape Verde Islands

#9 Postby ozonepete » Fri Sep 25, 2009 11:26 pm

Yeah, and actually, who the heck really knows which one of these, or neither, will develop into anything. I'm just leaning towards the second one at this point, but it's way too early to tell.
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Re: New wave to south of Cape Verde Islands

#10 Postby BigA » Sat Sep 26, 2009 10:48 am

The wave actually looks sort of decent right now. It's got some convection back after poofing yesterday.
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Re: New wave to south of Cape Verde Islands

#11 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 26, 2009 11:05 am

The latest image.It updates every 30 minutes.

Image
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Re: New wave to south of Cape Verde Islands

#12 Postby leanne_uk » Sat Sep 26, 2009 11:05 am

Image

Image

Image

Image

Latest images.
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Re: New wave to south of Cape Verde Islands

#13 Postby ozonepete » Sat Sep 26, 2009 11:10 pm

Still keeping nice form for the location it's in. Can't post other images now, but the important factors - mid-level water vapor, upper winds and SSTs - look good down the road... I think the models will come on board soon.

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#14 Postby BigA » Mon Sep 28, 2009 8:53 am

Still looks decent this morning. QuickSCAT shows some rotation (nothing too strong) around 8 north, 33 west, and the convection is still there. Nothing too organized though, and I don't expect development, but its about the only thing in the basin to watch.
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Re: New wave to south of Cape Verde Islands

#15 Postby ozonepete » Mon Sep 28, 2009 8:53 pm

It still has potential. There's nothing definitive to tell us if might develop and/or strengthen yet, so let's keep watching.
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Re: New wave to south of Cape Verde Islands

#16 Postby ozonepete » Tue Sep 29, 2009 10:31 pm

Still chuggin' along. Once it get's past the current high shear around 47 or 48W it will move into a low shear zone between 50 and 60W. Water vapor (especially the most important mid-level wv) improving markedly. SSTs obviously fine. Still worth following, IMHO.
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#17 Postby leanne_uk » Wed Sep 30, 2009 3:19 am

have the models even picked this one up yet or is it just up keeping our lil eyes on it lol.
Hopefully tho once it gets into that area with low shear we might get our action :)
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Re: New wave to south of Cape Verde Islands

#18 Postby Nimbus » Wed Sep 30, 2009 5:49 am

A lot of convection near -47 W is that west of the wave axis? The mid level rotation is evident but I haven't looked at the low level flow for convergence.

edit: The first morning visibles showed a little rotation at the lower levels near 10.1 N -48W but the sheer is still evident.
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#19 Postby Gustywind » Wed Sep 30, 2009 6:35 am

:uarrow:
000
AXNT20 KNHC 301059
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W TO THE SOUTH
OF 18N. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO 13N
BETWEEN 45W AND 48W.


$$
MT
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Re: New wave to south of Cape Verde Islands

#20 Postby Sanibel » Wed Sep 30, 2009 9:35 am

This wave that emerged from Africa with good curvature is now another 2009 ghost system east of the Lesser Antilles.
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